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Hendrick front-runners face dark horses at PIR

Gordon, Johnson favorites, but field has contenders

By NASCAR.COM
April 17, 2009
11:51 AM EDT
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Preview Show
Marc Fein and Mike Bell on what to expect under the lights at Phoenix.
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Fantasy Preview
Mike Bell picks the defending race winner to make history this weekend at PIR.
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Garage Expert
Larry McReynolds talks with Chad Knaus about sweeping Phoenix and how to execute a flawless fuel strategy.
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Travel Log
The scenery is just a taste of Arizona, which was the final puzzle piece ...
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Breaking down the top 12

Hello, Jeff Burton. Goodbye, Kevin Harvick. The swap of Richard Childress Racing drivers was the only change in the top 12 of the Sprint Cup standings after Texas. Bill Marx of the Sporting News Wire Service breaks down the top 12:

1. Jeff Gordon, 1,154 points. Gordon has been strong in all seven races this season, and he finally broke through and got a win. It won't be his last in 2009. The only question for Gordon is how many bonus points he'll accrue for the Chase.

Burton.Martin.193.jpg

No Margin for Error

Jeff Burton and Mark Martin are familiar with the drill. They made their bones vying for the series title -- but neither has ever hoisted the Cup at season's end. Nonetheless, Burton and Martin remain hopeful that 2009 will be their year. And Phoenix could prove to be a springboard for both drivers.

By the Numbers

Winning a race is difficult and special. Winning two in a row at the same track is impressive, but certainly not unheard of. Taking three consecutive at the same track is pretty darn impressive, but again, has been done on numerous occasions. But winning four in a row at one track -- well that gets you on a special list.

2. Jimmie Johnson, 992. No team makes adjustments like the No. 48. When the fourth caution came less than 10 laps after the third, it was like giving a power hitter another swing after a dropped third strike. With each caution down the stretch, Chad Knaus made the car that much better. Johnson took it from there and finished a fast-closing second.

3. Kurt Busch, 974. On a day "we couldn't run with the big dogs," Busch scored his first top-10 since winning at Atlanta. Being able to make something out of nothing is a good sign for the No. 2 team. Busch didn't get his fourth top-10 last year until the 18th race.

4. Clint Bowyer, 967. The No. 33 team couldn't zero-in on the right setup, and Bowyer finished 22nd, a lap down. What makes Bowyer so effective is that even on his bad days, he has a decent finish. He has not finished worse than 23rd since a 26th-place finish at Michigan last June. That's a stretch of 28 races.

5. Tony Stewart, 963. Stewart finished fourth at Texas, and Smoke summed up his day this way: "The car owner is happy, the driver is ticked off." Stewart felt he should have contented for Stewart-Haas' first win. The No. 14 team had issues in the pits early, but that didn't cost Stewart a higher finish. Stewart said his car needed more kick earlier in its runs.

6. Denny Hamlin, 938. Hamlin damaged his car entering the pits for a green-flag stop, and that sealed his fate. Still, he managed a 12th-place finish. Next stop is Phoenix, where Hamlin has finished in the top five in four of the past five races.

7. Kyle Busch, 914. Three mistakes on pit road and a brush with John Andretti sank Busch. He still battled back to finish 18th. But, if this had been the Chase. ... Put it this way, the No. 18 team has 19 more races to get days like Sunday out of its system.

8. Carl Edwards, 889. Pit-road problems at Texas were as prevalent as toothless smiles at a hockey camp. Edwards was a victim as were Roush Fenway Racing teammates Matt Kenseth and Greg Biffle. Edwards' was the most glaring because he lost the lead late and restarted 11th after the mishap in the 99 pits. He finished 10th. Like the No. 18 team, the No. 99 has 19 more races to fix the problem.

9. Matt Kenseth, 864. When the Killer Bees make a mistake you know something is amiss. It likely was an issue with the glue holding the lug nuts on the tires, which was an issue in Biffle's and possibly Edwards' pits, too. Kenseth still finished fifth for his first top-10 since starting the season with two wins.

10. Kasey Kahne, 851. Kahne's pit-road tale of woe wasn't anything he or his team did wrong. A caution came out moments after Kahne completed a green-flag stop, and he never got his lap back and finished 19th, the second car a lap back. It was the second week in a row Kahne finished 19th and the second week in a row he has dropped in the standings. Not a good sign.

11. David Reutimann, 845. Reutimann is in the top 12 for the sixth consecutive week and is not only emulating the regulars with his driving, but also by messing up in the pits. At Texas, he overshot his pit stall and was penalized a lap. Like Busch, he spent the rest of the race trying to get back on the lead lap. Reutimann did and finished 11th. The No. 00 has the least margin for error among all teams in the top 12. It must eliminate these kinds of mistakes.

12. Jeff Burton, 835. A year ago, Burton was first in the standings. One year later he is making his first appearance in the top 12. Burton has returned to the top with five consecutive top-15s since starting the season with finishes of 28th and 32nd. Last year, Burton began the season with 17 consecutive top-15 finishes.

Top five and five to watch

All statistical references are for Cup Series races at Phoenix International Speedway unless otherwise indicated. Driver rating is based on the past eight races at the track.

Top five ...

Jimmie Johnson
Johnson

1. Jeff Gordon, 100.3 driver rating. Gordon hasn't finished worse than sixth since his 13th-place finish at Daytona, and his record at Phoenix is outstanding: 15 top-10s in 20 races. Despite all the top finishes, though, Gordon has only one win at PIR.

2. Jimmie Johnson, 122.0. If Gordon is outstanding at PIR, Johnson is out of sight. He has won the past three races at the track and has never finished worse than 15th in 11 races. He has nine top-10s and a 5.5 average finish.

3. Kurt Busch, 99.2. Busch has six top-10s in 12 starts. His lone win came four years ago in his last start at Phoenix for Jack Roush. He finished second last fall, leading 60 laps, the first laps he has led since his win in April 2005.

4. Clint Bowyer, 83.5. Bowyer finished second last year for his second top-five in seven starts. He couldn't duplicate the effort in the Chase race, though, finishing 12th. He doesn't qualify well at the track -- 19.6 average start -- but if you look at Bowyer's career as a whole, you won't see standout qualifying at any track. He has started in the top 10 in only 28 of 116 races.

5. Tony Stewart, 98.9. In 1999, Stewart won his first race at PIR -- and that has been it. He hangs around the top 10, though, with eight top-10s in 14 races and an average finish of 10.6.

Five to watch ...

Juan Montoya
Montoya

7. Kyle Busch, 90.4. Busch has four consecutive top-10s at PIR, and his second Cup victory came at Phoenix in 2005, his rookie season. Busch's 238 quality passes (passing a car running in the top 15 while under a green flag) are the most at the track in the past four years.

8. Carl Edwards, 103.3. Edwards finished fourth in both races last year but didn't lead a lap in either. He has six top-10s in nine races but has led laps only once, November 2007, when he started from the pole but lost an engine after leading 87 of the first 125 laps.

13. Juan Montoya, 67.2. Montoya is 16 points behind 12th-place Jeff Burton, and Burton has a better history at Phoenix than Montoya. Burton has two wins and hasn't finished outside the top 15 since 1996. In four races, Montoya only can boast three finishes in the top 20.

14. Kevin Harvick, 105.4. Harvick's driver rating is second to Johnson's. Harvick has two wins -- he swept 2006 -- and six top 10s in 12 races. Phoenix is a good track for Harvick to make a push to return to the top 12. He dropped out after Texas after four consecutive races in the top 12.

16. Dale Earnhardt Jr., 92.1. Earnhardt's push up the standings stalled at Texas with his 20th-place finish, but Phoenix is a good track for Junior to start climbing again. He has two wins in 13 starts and seven top-10s, including in both races last year.

Qualifying: 7 p.m. ET Friday on SPEED
Cup Series Race: 8 p.m. ET Saturday on FOX
Complete TV Schedule

The End

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Inside the Numbers

Starting vs. Finishing
Driver Pts. Avg. St. Avg. Fin. +/-
C. Bowyer 4 22.0 10.1 11.9
M. Kenseth 9 25.6 16.9 8.7
J. Burton 12 23.4 15.6 7.8
C. Edwards 8 20.3 13.7 6.6
D. Earnhardt Jr. 16 24.7 18.4 6.3
D. Hamlin 6 18.1 11.9 6.2
J. Gordon 1 9.4 4.6 4.8
A.J. Allmendinger 20 21.7 20.1 1.6
Ku. Busch 3 11.9 10.9 1.0
K. Harvick 14 18.4 17.7 0.7
R. Newman 17 18.9 19.9 -1.0
T. Stewart 5 9.4 10.6 -1.2
J. Montoya 13 13.3 15.9 -2.6
K. Kahne 10 10.6 14.6 -4.0
D. Reutimann 11 10.7 15.0 -4.3
G. Biffle 15 15.0 19.3 -4.3
B. Vickers 19 14.9 20.0 -5.1
J. Johnson 2 5.7 11.3 -5.6
Ky. Busch 7 7.9 15.1 -7.2
M. Martin 18 12.0 20.9 -8.9
Source: racing-reference.info
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