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Left- and right-hand turns may shuffle Chase status


June 18, 2009
01:27 PM EDT
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Marc Fein and Mike Bell break down the twists and turns of Infineon Raceway.
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Mike Bell gives you the picks to click this week in Sonoma and his choice is poised for a comeback.
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Larry McReynolds talks with Steve Addington, No. 18 crew chief, about preparations for Infineon Raceway.
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Breaking down the Top 12

Mark Martin's stay outside the top 12 was a short one. His victory at Michigan rocketed him up five spots to No. 8. He replaced David Reutimann, who dropped to 13th, three points behind No. 12 Jeff Burton. Here's our weekly breakdown of the top 12:

Tony Stewart
Stewart

1. Tony Stewart, 2,189 points -- Stewart ran out of fuel 100 feet from the finish line but still finished seventh for his series-high 11th top 10. He can afford to continue taking chances. He is 382 points ahead of Reutimann with 11 races to go before the Chase field is set. In other words, Stewart is as good as in.

2. Jeff Gordon, 2,142 -- Gordon played the fuel-mileage game to near perfection, finishing second. But could he have pressed the issue more and possibly passed Martin and won the race? Martin ran out of gas coming out of Turn 4 on the final lap. Gordon didn't.

3. Jimmie Johnson, 2,047 -- Two weeks in a row Johnson has run out of gas. This time he finished 22nd. Does it really matter, though? Not in the Chase era when you are comfortably in the top 12 and it's all about winning. And that's where Johnson is.

4. Kurt Busch, 1,961 -- Busch conserved enough fuel on the final green-flag run to finish eighth. He had the most quality passes -- passing a car running in the top 15 under a green flag -- 889; Johnson was next with 824. A year ago, Busch was 19th in the standings after Michigan.

5. Ryan Newman, 1,934 -- Newman finished 23rd, ending his run of top 10s at six, one short of his career high. Handling was the issue, and Newman suffered his worst finish since 25th at Las Vegas in the third race of the season.

Carl Edwards
Edwards

6. Carl Edwards, 1,927 -- Edwards finished fourth to extend his outstanding record at Michigan to nine top 10s -- six top fives -- in 10 races. This season, it was his fourth consecutive finish seventh or best, which has moved him from 12th in the standings to sixth.

7. Greg Biffle, 1,913 -- Biffle came up short again, running out of gas on the backstretch of the final lap. "Pretty frustrating," Biffle said. "It was our first win for the season; I watched it slip away there. Fuel mileage two weeks in a row. Last week I was running third and finished 11th, and this week I was leading and finished fifth." Biffle led 42 laps to push his season total to 354, fifth best in series.

8. Mark Martin, 1,868 -- Martin was racing for points but instead won his third race of the year. He hasn't been this high in the standings after 15 races since he was fifth in 2006. But he was winless that year. The last time Martin won more than three races in a season was 1998, when he won a career-high seven and finished second in the standings.

9. Kyle Busch, 1,860 -- Busch finished 13th for his third consecutive finish outside the top 10. His sixth place at Lowe's is his only top 10 in the past five races and one of two in the past 10. It would be a real stunner if Busch dropped out of the top 12, even for one week.

10. Denny Hamlin, 1,849 -- Hamlin finished third for his first top five since Martinsville in March. It came just in time, too. He had finished 36th and 38th the past two races and entered Michigan in 12th, one point inside the top 12. He now has a 42-point cushion over Reutimann.

11. Matt Kenseth, 1,848 -- Kenseth was running ninth with less than 80 laps to go when he detected a vibration, forcing him to pit under green. He had a loose wheel and didn't return to the lead lap until he got the lucky dog. But the pit stop was costly, and Kenseth finished 20th. Although he dropped three spots in the standings and is only 41 points ahead of Reutimann, he is 86 out of fifth. A quick move right back up the standings is within reach.

12. Jeff Burton, 1,810 -- Burton steered his ill-handling car to a 26th-place finish and now is in peril of falling out of the top 12. All three Richard Childress Racing teams made the Chase last year. Now, it's not a stretch that all four (Casey Mears was added in the offseason) will be on the outside in September. Who would have thought?

Top five and five to watch

Here's a look at the top five in points and five drivers to watch in Sunday's Toyota/Save Mart 350. All statistical references are for Sprint Cup races at Infineon Raceway unless otherwise indicated. Driver rating is based on the past four races at the track:

Top five ...

1. Tony Stewart, 109.5 Driver Rating -- Stewart has two wins and six top 10s in 10 starts. He used his second win, in 2005, to spark his run to his second Cup championship. He is second only to Juan Pablo Montoya in driver rating but leads the way in fastest laps run and quality passes.

Jeff Gordon
Gordon

2. Jeff Gordon, 100.1 -- Gordon owns NASCAR's best record on road courses with nine wins, five at Infineon. He has 12 top 10s in 16 starts, with three straight dating to 2006. And besides his five wins, he has finished second twice and third three times, including last year.

3. Jimmie Johnson, 75.2 -- Among active tracks, Infineon has been the site of Johnson's fewest top 10s. He has two in seven races. On the positive side, Johnson qualified second last year and led a career-high 27 laps on the way to a 15th-place finish. Doing well at road courses -- Johnson is winless at Infineon and Watkins Glen -- is a high priority for Johnson.

4. Kurt Busch, 102.6 -- Busch has been unable to turn his great starting positions into enough good finishes. Since qualifying 41stt as a rookie in 2001, Busch has qualified in the top five five times, sixth and 14th. But his average finish in his eight starts is 19.1. He has three top-five finishes, but last year he started third and finished 32nd.

5. Ryan Newman, 101.9 -- Among drivers with at least five starts at Infineon, Newman has the third-best average finish, 9.4 (trailing the late Dale Earnhardt's 8.6 and Gordon's 9.3). In seven starts, Newman has five top 10s along with finishes of 14th and 20th. He finished seventh last year.

Five to watch ...

8. Mark Martin, 90.2 -- Last week's winner has a terrific record on road courses with 32 top 10s in 41 starts. One of his four victories came at Infineon, where he has 13 top 10s in 18 starts, including seven top fives. He last raced at Infineon in 2006, and this will be his first road-course race in nearly three years.

Juan Montoya
Montoya

9. Kyle Busch, 104.8 -- Busch swept the road-course races last year, winning at Infineon from 30th on the grid. He led 78 laps, including the last 42. Only Montoya in 2007 won from starting deeper in the field. He started 32nd.

12. Jeff Burton, 96.5 -- Although he has never won on a road course in 30 races, Burton has the seventh-best driver rating at Sonoma. Three of his past four finishes have been solid: seventh, third and 13th last year. The third is Burton's only top five in 15 starts. With only a three-point lead over 13th-place David Reutimann, Burton needs another strong run.

13. David Reutimann, 25.8 -- Yes, Reutimann's driver rating is 25.8, the lowest among the 55 drivers ranked in NASCAR's loop data statistics. In his only race at Infineon, Reutimann completed 99 of 112 laps last year before crashing and finishing 40th. He needs to do a whole lot better Sunday to hold his ground in the standings because right behind him is ...

14. Juan Montoya, 113.2 -- Montoya picked up his first Cup win in his first start at Infineon in 2007; he finished sixth last year. Montoya has his eyes on the Chase and expects to make a big move Sunday. He is 40 points behind Reutimann and 43 behind Burton.

The End

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