Top three in points among the best at Chicagoland

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Mike Bell gives you the clicks to pick for Saturday's race in Chicago and his pick may be a repeat success.
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Garage Expert
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Track Facts
Nikki Alexander brings you all you need to know about the mile and a half track in Illinois including the specs, history and former winners there.
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It's the only NASCAR weekend of the year for Chicagoland Speedway and the greater Chicago area, but don't let that fool you. Chicago is a primo destination on the Cup schedule.
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Breaking down the Top 12

With the running of last Saturday's Coke Zero 400 at Daytona, the Cup season reached its halfway point. With that in mind, here's our weekly breakdown of the top 12:

Stewart

1. Tony Stewart, 2,719 -- Smoke has to be on top of the world. New team. Two wins, including an exciting victory Saturday night at Daytona. And first in the standings for the first time since 2005. The two previous times he was first, he went on to win a Cup championship. If the second half is anything like the first, he just might tie Jimmie Johnson as the most successful driver of the decade.

2. Jeff Gordon, 2,539 -- Gordon was winless through 18 races last year, so he is ahead of the game. But one win is not enough. Gordon has eight races to change that before the start of the Chase. He needs to drive on the edge, just like Stewart and Kyle Busch did Saturday night.

3. Jimmie Johnson, 2,525 -- Johnson, with two wins, is ahead of last year's pace when he had one win and was fifth in points. But as we have seen in the past three years, it's the Chase when Johnson really distinguishes himself. He's a lock for his sixth consecutive Chase and a good bet to enter with more than two wins. He had four in the regular season last year.

4. Kurt Busch, 2,414 -- If anyone has a right to be giddy about his first half, it's Busch. He was 17th last year and on his way to missing the Chase for the second time. For the entire 2008 season, Busch had one win, five top-fives and 10 top-10s. This year he has almost identical numbers (he has six top-fives) in half the races. His average finish is 12.2. Last year for the season it was 21.9.

5. Carl Edwards, 2,317 -- The only thing that'll save Edwards' season is a strong showing in the Chase. He is shockingly winless, and worse, rarely has challenged for wins. Last year he had three wins and a series-high 13 top-10s at the halfway point. As Kyle Busch learned -- for the wrong reasons -- what happens in the Chase defines your season. So Edwards still has hope.

6. Denny Hamlin, 2,302 -- Like Edwards, Hamlin is winless. Unlike Edwards, Hamlin has challenged for wins. Twice he has led the most laps in a race and three times the second-most laps, including Saturday night. If he isn't snowed under by frustration, Hamlin has the goods to challenge for the championship.

7. Ryan Newman, 2,235 -- Newman won last year's Daytona 500 then fell out of sight. Not so this year. Although he hasn't won since, a stretch of 53 races, his move to Stewart-Haas Racing has invigorated his career. He already has equaled his top-10s for all of last year (eight) and has five top-fives vs. three last year. Newman should make the Chase for the first time since 2005.

8. Kyle Busch, 2,234 -- I'm not ready to push the panic button on Busch, but ... a few more finishes like Saturday night and Busch might find himself on the precipice of missing the Chase. The wins and the glory are great. But this is an indisputable fact: Busch is a crash or two from falling outside the top 12. And if you don't think a bad stretch can hit Busch, just remember what happened in the first three races of last year's Chase.

Biffle

9. Greg Biffle, 2,215 -- There are two ways to look at Biffle's season. One is with skepticism. He came into 2009 with a lot of momentum yet is winless. The other is to remember he also was winless in the regular season last year before winning the first two races in the Chase. Biffle has been fast all year, he just hasn't sealed the deal.

10. Matt Kenseth, 2,201 -- Kenseth's season has been well-documented. Since winning the first two races, he has struggled. On the other hand, he didn't win at all last season and still made the Chase. Kenseth and his No. 17 team are too good to miss the Chase. Kenseth is 100 points ahead of No. 13 Mark Martin. A year ago, Kenseth was 23 points ahead of 13th place at the halfway point. He'll be fine.

11. Juan Montoya, 2,187 -- Montoya was 21st last year going into Chicagoland with two top-10s. He has eight already. Since declaring at Lowe's he needed to post an average finish of 14.5 to make the Chase, Montoya has five top-10s in seven races and an average finish of 11.3. So far, so good. And he should continue to do well in the final eight races of the regular season.

12. Kasey Kahne, 2,166 -- Kahne had two wins in the first half last year and was eighth in the standings -- and didn't make the Chase, missing by 69 points. Kahne has one win so far and a lot more motivation: He does not want to be on the bubble come Richmond. In 2006, he jumped over Stewart, but last year he couldn't overcome Clint Bowyer's 48-point margin. He leads Martin by 65 points.

Top five and five to watch

Here's a look at the top five in points and five drivers to watch in Saturday night's LifeLock.com 400. All statistical references are for Sprint Cup races at Chicagoland Speedway unless otherwise indicated. Driver rating is based on the past four races at the track.

• Top five ...

1. Tony Stewart, 114.3 Driver Rating -- Stewart has a terrific record at Chicagoland: six top-fives in eight starts with two wins. And if this race comes down to fuel mileage, Stewart will be at the head of the line gambling. Those 10 bonus points for wins are even tastier in the final eight races before the Chase begins.

Gordon

2. Jeff Gordon, 93.4 -- Gordon has one win and five top-10s in eight starts. He has an excellent 10.1 average finish. Remove his one DNF -- for a crash in 2005 that left him 33rd -- and you have an average finish of 6.9. Another top-five (he has four) would be nice, but Gordon needs wins.

3. Jimmie Johnson, 109.3 -- Let's play the takeaway game with Johnson. He has six top-10s -- five in the top five -- in seven races with an average finish of 8.1. Take away his DNF in 2007 (crash, 37th), and his average finish drops to 3.3. Without a doubt, Johnson wants more wins. But just finishing strong each week is enough to remind everyone Johnson is still the man to beat.

4. Kurt Busch, 85.9 -- Like some of his peers, Busch either has a top-10 finish or is nowhere to be seen. He has two sixth-place and three eighth-place finishes to go with finishes of 39th, 35th and 28th. He has a big enough cushion to take chances Saturday night.

5. Carl Edwards, 81.5 -- Edwards' record does not reflect his ability on 1.5-mile tracks. His third-place finish in 2007 is overshadowed by finishes of 39th, 20th and 32nd. Half of Edwards' 16 career wins are on 1.5-mile tracks.

• Five to watch ...

10. Matt Kenseth, 120.4 -- Kenseth has led the most laps in the past four Chicagoland races (296) and run the most fastest laps (156) but has no wins to show for it. Barring getting spun late by another driver, such as the little ride Gordon gave him in 2006, Kenseth should be there at the end. And if not vying for the win, he'll at least have a big points day, which he needs in a big way.

Montoya

11. Juan Montoya, 66.8 -- Montoya has finishes of 15th and 18th in his first two starts at the track. Based on his improved performance in 2009, look for him to do much better. A top-10, or better, is not out of the question.

12. Kasey Kahne, 61.1 -- Kahne is wearing the collar at Chicagoland -- last year's 15th was his best finish in five starts. His 29.4 average finish is his worst among all Sprint Cup tracks. Kahne has some history on his side: He also was 0-for-5 at Sonoma before winning there in June.

13. Mark Martin, 79.8 -- Martin has a solid 14.0 average finish: His best finish is sixth, his worst is 24th. A solid finish is what he desperately needs after last week's 38th at Daytona, which came two weeks after finishing 35th at Sonoma.

14. David Reutimann, 65.3 -- Reutimann is nine points behind Martin (and 74 behind Kahne) for a reason: He matched Newman with finishes of 36th at Daytona and 31st at Sonoma. Reutimann finished last in his first start at Chicagoland in 2007 (DNF for engine trouble) but finished 14th last year. The latter effort is more like him, especially this year in his breakout season.