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Breaking down the Top 12

At the Brickyard

Twenty-one Indianapolis 500 winners have started Cup Series races. As the chart shows, none was more successful in the Cup series than A.J. Foyt. Two Indy 500 winners, Juan Montoya and Sam Hornish Jr., are full-time Cup drivers and will compete in the Allstate 400 at the Brickyard on Sunday.

Driver	Starts	W	T-5	T-10
A.J. Foyt	128	7	29	36
P. Jones	34	4	6	11
J. Montoya	92	1	5	18
J. Rutherford	35	1	2	5
M. Donohue	6	1	1	1
M. Andretti	14	1	1	3
S. Hornish Jr.	55	0	0	4
G. Johncock	21	0	3	4
D. Franchitti	10	0	0	0
B. Holland	8	0	1	2
T. Sneva	8	0	0	1
T. Ruttman	7	0	2	5
A. Unser	5	0	2	3
B. Unser	4	0	2	2
R. Ward	3	0	0	0
J. Rathmann	3	0	0	0
J. Villeneuve	2	0	0	0
A. Unser Jr.	1	0	0	0
B. Rahal	1	0	0	0
D. Sullivan	1	0	0	0
J. Clark	1	0	0	0

Note: Seven Cup drivers had multiple Indy 500 wins: Foyt and A. Unser (4); Rutherford and B. Unser (3); and Johncock, Ward and Unser Jr. (2).

Thirteen points separate 10th place from 13th. Here's our weekly breakdown of the top 12:

1. Tony Stewart, 2,884 points -- Here's a reality check: If Mark Martin makes the Chase and Stewart doesn't win any of the next seven races, he will lose the points lead. And if Kyle Busch makes it, Stewart won't even be second when the Chase begins on Sept. 20. He has seven races to remedy that.

2. Jeff Gordon, 2,709 -- Gordon already has finished second five times this season. He might find that frustrating now, but if he does that during the Chase, he just might win his fifth championship.

3. Jimmie Johnson, 2,672 -- In last year's Race to the Chase, Johnson won three races, beginning with the Allstate 400 at the Brickyard. Guess where the next Sprint Cup race is ...

4. Kurt Busch, 2,526 -- Busch will make the Chase. But to win his second championship, he must improve on his finishes. He needs to be consistently in the top five rather than frequently in the top 10. That's how he became the surprise winner in 2004.

5. Denny Hamlin, 2,457 -- Hamlin knows how to make the Chase -- he has been in it each year since becoming a full-time Cup driver in 2006. But he has never been considered a threat to win it all. You can see the reason in the first 19 races of the season: Hamlin isn't successful at sealing the deal. That has plagued him throughout his young career. How else can a driver lead the third-most laps this season yet not have a victory?

6. Carl Edwards, 2,438 -- Then there's Edwards. He's winless, too. At least Hamlin is sniffing victories. Edwards has led one lap in the past five races since leading a season-high 103 at Pocono when he finished a season-best second. If this keeps up, Simon & Garfunkel will rewrite Mrs. Robinson, inserting, "Where have you gone Carl Edwards?"

7. Ryan Newman, 2,385 -- Newman is pleased as punch to have a competitive car each week, but his spot in the Chase is not a given. He leads 13th-place Greg Biffle by 100 points, and Newman's sixth-place finish at Chicago was his first top-10 since Pocono. Wins are great, but points racing will be the priority for now.

8. Kasey Kahne, 2,336 -- Kahne jumped four spots with his third top-five of the season. This is the highest Kahne has been in the standings since he was sixth after Bristol in March. He's off to a good start in the Race to the Chase with three finishes in the top 15, including two top-10s. If Kahne maintains that pace, he's in.

9. Juan Pablo Montoya, 2,321 -- Montoya also has three finishes in the top 15 in the past three races. In fact, he has five top-10s in the past six. That kind of consistency will put him in the Chase, especially when you consider the yo-yo finishes of some of his competitors.

10. Kyle Busch, 2,298 -- Busch isn't quite as feast or famine as Mark Martin, but his inconsistency has the potential to ruin his season. His three wins are second to Martin's four, but if Busch doesn't make the Chase ... well, let's not even go there. Busch has one top-10 in the past seven races and is 13 points ahead of Biffle. Whereas others have the M.O. to make the Chase, Busch has the DNA to miss it with his go-for-broke tendencies.

11. Mark Martin, 2,296 -- Martin has two wins in the past five races -- and two finishes 35th or worse. For the season, Martin has six finishes 31st or worse. No driver in the top 15 has a worse average finish than Martin's 17.4. Then again, no driver in the series has as many as his four wins. But his maddening inconsistency could lead to this wild scenario: Martin will have the most wins in the series but miss the Chase, or he'll just make the Chase but start the Chase in first because he'll have the most bonus points. Talk about all or nothing.

12. Matt Kenseth, 2,295 -- This statement should sound familiar: Kenseth has one top-10 in the past six races, which is why he is but 10 points ahead of Roush Fenway Racing teammate Biffle. Then again, Biffle also has one in the past six, which is why he is out of the top 12 for the first time in three months. The first to put together a string of top 10s makes the Chase.

Top five and five to watch

Here's a look at the top five in points and five drivers to watch in Sunday's Allstate 400 at the Brickyard. All statistical references are for Cup races at Indianapolis Motor Speedway unless otherwise indicated. Driver rating is based on the past four races at the track.

• Top five ...

Stewart

1. Tony Stewart, 111.2 Driver Rating -- The past four Brickyards have been won by Stewart and Jimmie Johnson in alternating years. Stewart had his worst finish last year, 23rd, but it is meaningless because of the tire debacle. Expect Stewart to be strong again. Besides his two wins, he has four other top-10s.

2. Jeff Gordon, 97.5 -- Gordon holds the record with four wins, his last in 2005. He has 12 top-10s in 15 races. The top-10 he needs Sunday is a win -- and the 10 bonus points that go with it for the Chase. Gordon has one win this year.

3. Jimmie Johnson, 99.1 -- Johnson has a wacky record at the Brickyard. In his past five races, he has two wins and three DNFs. His average finish at Indy is 20.3, his worst among active tracks (his career low among Cup tracks is 23.2 in five races at Rockingham).

4. Kurt Busch, 70.1 -- Busch hasn't had a top-10 at the Brickyard since 2004, which capped three top-10s in is first four starts. Busch leads 13th-place Greg Biffle by 241 points, so another middling finish won't hurt Busch in the standings.

5. Denny Hamlin, 101.2 -- Hamlin's driver rating is second to Stewart's, even though he has only three starts. Hamlin finished third last year; he finished 10th and 22nd in his other starts. Hamlin led 26 laps last year, second to Johnson's 71.

• Five to watch ...

Montoya

9. Juan Pablo Montoya, 87.2 -- Montoya started second and finished second as a rookie in 2007. He crashed last year and finished 39th. He is on a roll this year, and tires permitting, he should be able to post a strong finish and solidify his standing in the top 12. He leads Biffle by 36 points.

10. Kyle Busch, 98.9 -- Busch has the goods to win Sunday. He also has the "bads" to post another poor finish and fall out of the top 12 -- he has one top-10 in the past two months. His 15th-place finish last year was his first outside the top 10 in four races. He leads Biffle by 13 points.

11. Mark Martin, 98.8 -- Martin has the best average finish the past four years at 7.3. He hasn't led a lap, but only Stewart has turned more laps in the top 15. A win would be sweet but not at the expense of a top-10 finish -- in other words, no gambling. Martin has been all over the map when it comes to finishes this year. Here is how he followed his first three wins of the season: 43rd, 17th, 35th. He is coming off his fourth win, two weeks ago at Chicagoland.

12. Matt Kenseth, 96.8 -- Before his 38th-place finish last year, Kenseth's worst finish over a six-race stretch was 16th in 2004. His other finishes were four top-fives and a 10th. Kenseth leads teammate Biffle by one point and is a point behind Martin. If Kenseth returns to form, he'll do just fine.

17. Jeff Burton, 100.6 -- Burton has the third-best driver rating, and only Stewart and Johnson have led more laps than Burton in the past four Brickyards. Burton has finished in the top 10 the past two years and desperately needs another. He is struggling and has one top 10 since early May. He is 182 points behind Kenseth and is a long shot at best to make his fourth consecutive Chase. A bad finish Sunday likely will dash his postseason hopes.