Back to the Irish Hills, where Stewart can clinch

By NASCAR.COM
August 13, 2009
02:19 PM EDT

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Preview Show
Beau Estes and Mike Bell ponder if Tony Stewart can turn his momentum into a third title, and break down the multi-groove Michigan race.
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Fantasy Preview
Mike Bell gives you the picks to click for your fantasy team this weekend as the drivers go back to the oval in the Irish Hills of Michigan.
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Garage Expert
Larry McReynolds explains the policies NASCAR has in place regarding backup cars.
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Track Facts
Nikki Alexander brings you all of the particulars you need to know about Michigan International Speedway.
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Race to the Chase
Both Stewart and Jimmie Johnson can clinch a spot in the Chase at Michigan. Any driver leaving MIS with a 586-point lead over 13th-place will clinch a spot. Stewart basically is a lock; all he to do ...
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Breaking down the Top 12

Kyle Busch made the biggest move at Watkins Glen, finishing fourth and gaining ground on all the bubble drivers. He began the race 101 points outside the top 12; he's now 58 points back with four races to go before the Chase field is set. Here's our weekly breakdown of the top 12.

1. Tony Stewart, 3,383 points -- Big win for Stewart on Monday. That gives him three wins and 30 bonus points for the Chase, tying him with Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Busch and leaving him one behind Mark Martin. If Busch and/or Martin don't make the Chase, that's huge boost for Stewart.

Targeted approach

Juan Montoya's on-track results have improved dramatically, thanks in large part to off-track changes made by crew chief Brian Pattie. With a Chase berth in sight, the No. 42 team remains focused on its driver's success.

2. Jimmie Johnson, 3,123 -- In the upcoming four races, Johnson is winless at Michigan and Bristol and has three wins at both Atlanta and Richmond. He has won the late-summer Richmond race the past two years. Sure, he'd like to win all four. But winning one of the four is a reasonable goal.

3. Jeff Gordon, 3,041 -- Gordon's back absorbed another blow at Watkins Glen. I just wonder how much longer we'll get to see Gordon race.

4. Kurt Busch, 2,902 -- Busch has run well the past two races and brought home top-10s. His prospects during the next four races look good. He has won at each track, including five times at Bristol. He also has two wins at Michigan and Atlanta and one at Richmond. A couple of wins would put him right up there with Stewart and Johnson and provide a huge momentum boost going into the Chase.

5. Denny Hamlin, 2,847 -- A pit-road penalty sank Hamlin but not his spirits. He was pleased to have rallied to a top-10 finish. Speaking of pit-road penalties, all the Chase drivers need to get them out of the way before the Chase begins Sept. 20.

6. Carl Edwards, 2,830 -- Edwards set a goal this year of winning a road race. He came up short -- 13th at Infineon, third at Watkins Glen -- but his third was a career best on a road course. Now he needs to get off the schneid and get his first win of the season.

7. Juan Montoya, 2,781 -- Even if Montoya doesn't win one of the next four races, he will be entering the Chase with tremendous momentum. He is a textbook example of what a driver needs to do to get off the bubble. He is now 154 points ahead of Busch and riding a string of seven top-10s in his past nine races (with his other two finishes 12th and 11th).

8. Kasey Kahne, 2,754 -- Kahne finished outside the top 10 for the first time in four races, and his lead over Busch fell from 180 to 127 points. He's likely still safe, but you can do the math of what will happen if Kahne continues to give away 53 points a race.

9. Ryan Newman, 2,727 -- Newman struggled again, finishing outside the top 10 for the seventh time in eight races. His lead over 13th place is down to 100 points. Last week I said it would take a monumental collapse for Newman to miss the Chase. Well, he gave up 65 points to Busch on Monday. That's how monumental collapses begin.

10. Greg Biffle, 2,718 -- Great job by Biffle, who finished fifth, one spot behind Busch. It was Biffle's best finish at Watkins Glen, and he gave up only 10 points to Busch. How clutch was Biffle's performance? He came into the race with an average finish of 28.7 at the track.

11. Mark Martin, 2,716 -- Martin finished 23rd, ending a run of three consecutive top-10s, and gave up a lot of ground to Busch. Martin dropped a spot to 11th and leads Busch by 89 points.

12. Matt Kenseth, 2,685 -- Kenseth is back in 12th -- for the seventh time this season. He finished 14th and lost 44 points to Busch and now leads by 58. Not only must Kenseth concern himself with Busch, but 14th-place Brian Vickers is 96 points back and 15th-place Clint Bowyer is 99 back.

Top five and five to watch

Here's a look at the top five in points and five drivers to watch in Sunday's Sprint Cup Series race at Michigan. All statistical references are for Cup Series races at MIS unless otherwise indicated. Driver Rating is based on the past nine races at the track.

• Top five ...

1. Tony Stewart, 96.0 Driver Rating -- Stewart hasn't won at Michigan since 2000, but 11 of his 14 top-10s have come in the past 15 races. Michigan is a fuel-mileage track, and Stewart has nothing to lose and everything to gain: He qualifies for the Chase by simply taking the green flag. However, he's not the only driver with nothing to lose by gambling on fuel, so if he does, he'll have company.

Johnson

2. Jimmie Johnson, 109.6 -- Johnson dominated in June, leading 146 laps, but he ran out of gas with two laps to go and finished 22nd. Guess what? That won't stop Johnson from gambling again. For the next four races, it's all about the wins. Johnson is winless in 15 starts at Michigan.

3. Jeff Gordon, 94.0 -- Gordon finished second in June, and to his dismay, probably was too conservative on saving fuel in light of the drivers who did -- and did not -- run out in front of him. Gordon has two wins, and his mindset should be whatever it takes to get another.

4. Kurt Busch, 97.3 -- Busch also has two wins at Michigan and is coming off two weeks of strong runs. He is building momentum at the right time, but it's still worth the gamble if he thinks it will get him a win, even if it means giving up a top-10 finish.

5. Denny Hamlin, 91.4 -- Hamlin finished third in June for his third top-10 in seven starts. Hamlin is 220 points ahead of 13th-place Kyle Busch and is as good as in the Chase. Hamlin won two weeks ago and finished 10th last week despite a pit-road speeding penalty. Hamlin's strategy is no different than the other drivers in the top five.

• Five to watch ...

9. Ryan Newman, 71.4 -- Newman is in a terrible funk with one top-10 in the past two months. He has a 100-point lead over Busch, but with the way things are going, that's not safe. He finished 23rd in June at Michigan, which was the beginning of his slide. Coming into the first Michigan race, Newman had a streak of six top-10s, five of those top-fives. Since getting consecutive wins at Michigan in 2003-04, Newman has finished outside the top 10 in 10 consecutive starts. That doesn't bode well.

Biffle

10. Greg Biffle, 107.2 -- Biffle should be teeming with confidence after finishing fifth last week for his best effort at Watkins Glen. Now he comes to a track that is a Roush Fenway strength. Biffle finished fifth last year, running out of gas on the last lap with the lead. It was his eighth top-10 in 13 starts, and he led 42 laps. His driver rating trails only Johnson's and Roush teammate Carl Edwards' 114.0. Biffle leads Busch by 91 points.

11. Mark Martin, 86.5 -- Martin stumbled last week at the Glen, and his lead over Busch was cut to 89 points. Martin won in June for his fifth victory at the track (first since 1998). It was the only lap he led and the first lap he led at Michigan since 2005. Another strong run is essential because he is surrounded by Roush drivers and a hungry Busch. Martin leads Busch by 89 points.

12. Matt Kenseth, 103.4 -- Kenseth, another Roush driver, is fourth in driver rating. He has six top-fives, including a win, in his past nine races at the track. His lead over Busch is 58 points. Kenseth finished 20th in June and is in no position to gamble on fuel, if it comes to that. Bottom line: He needs to finish ahead of Busch.

13. Kyle Busch, 95.8 -- Busch finished second in this race a year ago for his only top-five in nine starts. He finished 13th in June. A gambler by nature, Busch might need to ratchet back his aggressiveness a bit. He can't give away points -- any points -- on Sunday. His No. 1 goal should be finishing (as far) in front of Kenseth as is safely possible, with emphasis on safely.