Things heated at bottom of standings heading to BMS

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Breaking down the Top 12

Two significant events happened in Sunday's Carfax 400, and neither one was Jimmie Johnson running out of gas at Michigan for the second time this season. First, Brian Vickers won and picked up a ton of points, moving to 13th in the standings, 12 points behind No. 12 Mark Martin. And second, Martin's crew chief, Alan Gustafson, inexplicably allowed his driver to run out of gas on the last lap, which resulted in a disastrous 31st-place finish. Here's our weekly breakdown of the top 12.

Stewart

1. Tony Stewart, 3,500 -- Here's my concern with Smoke: Stewart's No. 14 team is doing really well, teammate Ryan Newman's No. 39 isn't. If it's the drivers, that's one thing. But what if it's the equipment? What if the bad luck that has plagued the 39 at times this season spreads to the 14?

2. Jeff Gordon, 3,216 -- Just as teammate Johnson has mastered running out of gas just short of the finish at Michigan, Gordon has mastered running second. He finished second at both races this season and for the eighth time at the track. For the season, that's six second-place finishes. Gordon has shown frustration with most of them, but if he finishes second in six Chase races, he'll likely win his fifth Cup championship.

3. Jimmie Johnson, 3,197 -- Johnson took his 33rd-place finish in stride. At least outwardly. The truth is, if there had been one -- just one -- caution to break up that final green-flag run, Johnson would have won. Johnson's ability to stretch fuel mileage aside, the gamble was the right call to make.

4. Carl Edwards, 2,995 -- Cousin Carl, aka Winless Carl, finished fourth. No surprise there. It was his 10th top-10 in 11 races at Michigan, his seventh in the top five. Edwards also finished in the top five the previous week at Watkins Glen. If Edwards is beginning to find his groove, it's coming at the exact right time, and his early season woes will become long forgotten.

5. Denny Hamlin, 2,986 -- Speaking of momentum ... Hamlin scored his third top-10 in a row and seventh in nine races since finishing third at Michigan in June. The difference between Hamlin and Edwards is that Hamlin has a win and isn't carrying around the burden of being winless.

6. Kurt Busch, 2,957 -- Busch got caught up in a wreck and was saddled with his first DNF of the season. He was coming off consecutive top-10s during which he led significant laps. He has five wins at this week's stop, Bristol, and can quickly regain momentum.

Montoya

7. Juan Montoya, 2,887 -- Contact with Kasey Kahne left Montoya seething and with a cut tire, forcing him to make a green-flag stop. But he recovered to finish 19th and maintain his spot in the standings. The downside is that he went from 154 points ahead of the 13th-place driver to 108. He still has a significant cushion, but that's also a significant chunk to lose.

8. Kasey Kahne, 2,884 -- Kahne scrambled to an 11th-place finish and also maintained his position in the standings. He leads Vickers by 105 points with three races to go before the Chase field is set. Kahne also had his margin trimmed, but like Montoya, he still has a good-sized lead.

9. Ryan Newman, 2,845 -- Then there's Newman, who, to borrow a hockey cliche, stole one Sunday. Newman finished 15th despite an average running position of 23.8. Newman spent 23 laps in the top 15; only Kahne with 11 laps was lower among drivers finishing in the top 15. Newman's lead on 13th place is 66; it was 165 points two races ago. The 39 team is flailing.

10. Greg Biffle, 2,821 -- Biffle is still 10th, but his lead on 13th is 42 points, down from 91, after his 20th-place finish. Last year, Biffle came alive in the Chase, winning the first two races. If he keeps this up, he won't make the Chase.

11. Matt Kenseth, 2,811 -- Kenseth finished 14th and moved up a spot. But his cushion is down to 32 points. He finished 33rd at Bristol in March. Another repeat performance might knock him out of the top 12. Biffle, by the way, finished 39th. The same goes for him.

12. Mark Martin, 2,791 -- If Martin misses the Chase, Michigan will be the reason (not the other six races he finished 31st or worse). Hendrick Motorsports teammate Dale Earnhardt Jr. made a stop under caution on Lap 159 and gave up track position but roared home third. If Martin had done the same and finished, say, fourth, he would have taken home 165 points -- 90 more -- and be ninth in the standings with 2,881 points, a 102-point lead and momentum. Instead, his lead on Vickers is 12, and the buzzards are circling.

Ten to keep an eye on

With all the focus on the drivers on the bubble of the Cup Series standings, we change things up a bit this week with a look at the top-10 drivers to watch in Saturday night's race at Bristol Motor Speedway. All statistical references are for Cup races at Bristol unless otherwise indicated. Driver Rating is based on the past nine races at the track.

Busch

6. Kurt Busch, 88.9 Driver Rating -- No, Busch is not on the bubble. He has a healthy 178-point lead on 13th-place Brian Vickers with three races to go before the Chase field is set. It would take a monumental collapse for Busch to miss the Chase, and that's not going to happen, especially considering he has five Cup wins at Bristol and won at the next stop, Atlanta, in March. The real action begins just below.

7. Juan Montoya, 69.9 -- Montoya finished ninth in March for his first top-10 in five races at Bristol. His average finish at the track is 18.4. He needs to improve that at least four or five spots to remain safe. He leads Vickers by 108 points.

8. Kasey Kahne, 91.5 -- Kahne finished fifth in March for his fourth top-10 in 11 Bristol races. On the flip side, Kahne has three DNFs for crashes, including in this race last year. Kahne, along with the rest of the drivers on the bubble, absolutely must avoid a DNF Saturday night. Kahne is 105 points ahead of Vickers.

9. Ryan Newman, 85.7 -- Beginning with Newman is where things begin to get dicey. He is 66 points inside the top 12, but he was 165 ahead of 13th place two races ago. Newman has never won in 15 starts but has eight top-10s, including in the past two races. Newman's record at Bristol is glaringly feast or famine. In the seven races he finished outside the top 10, six were 30th or worse. He is desperate for another top 10.

10. Greg Biffle, 98.0 -- Biffle has seven top-10s in 13 starts. Even though he finished 39th in March with his first DNF (engine), his average finish is 12.1, fifth best among active drivers with at least nine starts. He leads Vickers by 42 points.

Kenseth

11. Matt Kenseth, 97.7 -- Kenseth has two wins and 11 top-10s in 19 races and an average finish of 13.3. But he finished 33rd in March and crashed out of this race two years ago and finished 39th. He is 32 points ahead of Vickers.

12. Mark Martin, 79.4 -- Martin is coming off a terrible points day at Michigan that left him 12 points inside the top 12. Martin won the pole in March and finished sixth in his first Cup race at Bristol since 2006. He has two wins and 22 top-10s in 41 starts but only two of those top-10s have come since finishing third in August 2000.

13. Brian Vickers, 57.2 -- When the Race to the Chase began, Vickers was 197 points outside the top 12. His win last week was his fifth top-10 in the past six races. Now comes Bristol, where he has been abysmal: zero top-10s in 10 races with a 26.0 average finish. If a top-10 is too much to ask, he needs a top 15 or, at the very least, a top 20 to keep his Chase hopes alive.

14. Clint Bowyer, 84.1 -- Bowyer's streak of four consecutive Bristol top-10s ended with a 13th-place finish in March. Since finishing 29th and 38th as a rookie in 2006, his average finish is 6.8 in the past five races. If he finishes in the top seven again, Bowyer will cut into his 58-point deficit.

15. Kyle Busch, 103.2 -- Busch won in March and finished second last August. He has two wins and six top-10s in nine races. Just like Bowyer, if you erase his rookie finishes (28th and 33rd in 2005), Busch has a dynamite average finish in his races since -- 5.7. He is 70 points behind Martin. A top-10 finish is a must.