At RIR, winning to get in much easier said than done

Which one would Kyle Busch like to do over again? He thinks back across the long expanse of the NASCAR season, and decides on the first.

"The Daytona 500, I wish I had that one back, for sure," the Joe Gibbs Racing driver said. "We ran 41st, getting in a wreck with [Dale Earnhardt Jr.] and [Brian Vickers] there. Unfortunately, you know, that was probably the biggest race that I'd love to have back."

It was an inauspicious start to what became a trying season for Busch, who a year ago was the class of the Sprint Cup field and now may not even qualify for the Chase. Heading into Saturday night's cutoff event at Richmond International Raceway, he ranks 14th in the standings, and 37 points behind Matt Kenseth for the 12th and final playoff spot. Should he make the Chase, his four race victories would give him a chance at the top seed. But they'll be of no help to him on Saturday night.

"Our strategy is just going to be the same as it's been the whole year. We just go out there and try to run the best we can," he said. "Fortunately, we won the Richmond race in the spring there, so we feel like we can go back there and do well there. I've run well there about every time I've been there. If we have another good, solid run, like a top-10, a top-five run, we really don't need to change anything. During the race, we'll have to do everything we can to try to win the race."

Every driver on the bubble comes to Richmond with the same dream, of winning the race to make the Chase. It seems fairly straightforward, but it's happened only once. Jeremy Mayfield entered the fall Richmond race prior to the inaugural 2004 Chase 14th in the standings, and 55 points behind what was then the 10th and final playoff spot. It was a deficit that, by comparison, dwarfs what Busch faces today. Yet Mayfield led 151 of 200 laps, won the race, and vaulted to ninth place. It was such a staggering feat, it earned a place in the sport's lexicon. Drivers have since referred to a win-to-get-in scenario as "pulling a Mayfield."

And yet, time has shown just how difficult that is to do. All of the pre-Chase Richmond events since Mayfield's victory have been won by drivers who came to RIR with their playoff berths fairly ensured. Kurt Busch was sixth when he won in 2005, Kevin Harvick was third in 2006, and Jimmie Johnson was sixth and third, respectively, prior to his wins the past two years. If anything, many bubble drivers now take a conservative approach to Richmond, treading lightly and trying to avoid trouble until the endgame presents itself.

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Saturday night, winning might not even be enough. Greg Biffle, currently in 11th place, can clinch outright by finishing 11th or better, or as low as 15th if he leads the most laps. Regardless of anyone else's finish, Kenseth will clinch if he finishes second or better and leads a lap, or third and leads the most laps. And yet, win-to-get-in is still the ultimate goal for drivers like Vickers, who comes to Richmond in 13th place and 20 points behind Kenseth for the final Chase spot.

"I think it's very clear as to what we have to do, which is pretty much go there and win the race," he said. "That's not necessarily the only way to get in the Chase, but that's really how we're going to gain the most amount of points. Even if we accomplish our goal, which is to go there, sit on pole, lead laps, win the race, there's still no guarantee we're going to make the Chase.

"If Matt finishes second, there's nothing we can do about it. The last thing that myself or anybody on the Red Bull team [wants to do] is wish ill upon anybody. We don't want anything bad to happen to our competitors. But we need them to at least not have a great night, no matter how our performance is."

Of course, strategy changes as the race goes on. One crash can alter scenarios completely. Kyle Busch remembers last year's Richmond race, when desperate drivers trying to race their way in used pit gambles to get track position they ultimately weren't able to hold on to. And then there are the ever-changing point gaps between the bubble drivers and the competitors they need to chase down.

Up on the box, crew chiefs will be aware of that information at all times. It can enter a driver's mind, too, no matter how much he tries to focus on the task at hand.

"We can't get tied up in what everyone is doing. I'd be lying if I didn't say we're not going to stay on top of it and be aware of it, no different than Atlanta. When I was racing with Matt and Kyle, I knew I was also racing with guys for a spot in the Chase. The best thing that we can do, the most important thing we can do, is to not make a mistake, not have a bad finish, but we need to have a good one," Vickers said.

"Could that strategy change throughout the race? Of course it could. If Kyle and/or Matt have a problem, or Greg Biffle, if anyone else that's on the bubble has a problem during the race, we know we have to finish 20th instead of first, then of course that's going to change our strategy. We may not take a risk to win the race when we conservatively can finish seventh or 10th and make the Chase. I'm sure that [crew chief] Ryan [Pemberton] and the guys will stay on top of that throughout the race. My focus is going to remain on passing the guy in front of me, and if we're leading, trying to stay in the lead."

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