One race left for bubblers to stake a claim to Chase

Preview Show
Marc Fein and Mike Bell break down the final race before the Chase, the Chevy Rock & Roll 400.
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Fantasy Report
Mike Bell tells you who you need in your fantasy lineup and takes a three-time Richmond winner to go to Victory Lane.
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Garage Expert
Larry McReynolds explains why race teams use tachometers instead of speedometers to determine pit-road speeds.
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Track Facts
Nikki Alexander breaks down the specifics of RIR as we get geared up for the last race before the Chase begins.
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Race to the Chase
There have been 6,936 laps of Sprint Cup Series racing since the green flag fell at Daytona on Feb. 15, and now the Race to the Chase comes down to 400 laps at Richmond on Saturday night.
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Breaking down the Top 12

1. Tony Stewart, 3,694 -- Stewart scrambled from 16th to 11th in the final 10 percent of Sunday's race, but he still finished outside the top 10 and wasn't a factor for the third consecutive race. In those races he has led two laps. From a confidence standpoint, a top finish is needed this week at Richmond.

By the Numbers

Four already have locked up their spots -- Tony Stewart, Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon and Denny Hamlin -- and therefore have nothing to lose. But for 10 drivers, only eight spots are left and with 122 points being all that separates them, Saturday sets up to be one amazing night.

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2. Jeff Gordon, 3,457 -- Gordon finished eighth and led 30 laps, the most he has led in a race since June 28 at New Hampshire, so that was a positive sign. Saturday night is his last shot at 10 more bonus points, and that should be his top priority.

3. Jimmie Johnson, 3,404 -- Guess who has won the past two Richmond races on the eve of the Chase? Johnson and the 48 team will put Sunday's handling and mechanical issues behind them -- if they haven't already.

4. Denny Hamlin, 3,296 -- Hamlin was solid all night, never falling below 11th in the running order on the way to finishing sixth. That's five consecutive top-10s since winning at Pocono. And now comes Richmond, the track that means the most to Virginia-born Hamlin.

5. Carl Edwards, 3,162 -- Normally, you'd think a guy with a 105-point lead over the 13th-place driver, Brian Vickers, would be sitting pretty. But Edwards had a 216-point lead three races ago. He went out early at Atlanta, came back, but still finished 37th. If that happens again at Richmond, he might miss the Chase.

6. Kasey Kahne, 3,153 -- Huge win for Kahne. Not only does he pick up his second victory (10 more bonus points), but also jumps five spots in the standings. It's funny, but his 96-point lead over Vickers seems safer than Edwards' 105-point cushion. That's momentum for you.

7. Kurt Busch, 3,152 -- Uh-oh. Busch finished 38th for his second poor finish in three races (he finished 36th at Michigan), and his 275-point lead over 13th place is down to 95. He still should be solid for making the Chase, but some of the swagger in the No. 2 camp is gone.

8. Juan Montoya, 3,145 -- One of the more interesting exchanges between driver and crew chief occurred when Montoya was battling with Kahne for the lead late in the race. Crew chief Brian Pattie was in a "go get 'em" mode, and it was Montoya who reminded him the Chase was the big picture. Montoya's third-place finish increased his cushion over 13th to 88 points (from 64).

9. Ryan Newman, 3,138 -- Newman dropped two spots, but like Greg Biffle and Matt Kenseth, it could have been much worse. Newman was 18th at the halfway point and 15th with 33 laps to go. No driver moved up more than Newman in the final 10 percent of the race. He did what he needed to do: stay close to Vickers and Kyle Busch. Vickers finished seventh and Busch 13th. Newman gave up only three points to 13th place and leads Vickers by 81 points.

10. Mark Martin, 3,126 -- Martin didn't lead a lap, but he ran a textbook race, finishing ahead of every driver in the top 15 except for Kahne and Montoya. His 69-point lead over Vickers is his largest lead over 13th place since Bristol. Martin is too savvy to give that up.

11. Greg Biffle, 3,125 -- Biffle fell three spots in the standings, but don't let that fool you. He rebounded from disastrous track position and gave up only seven points to his lead over 13th (68 points). Halfway through the race he was 25th, and his average running position was 21st. Biffle spent 60 laps in the top 15, the fewest among the drivers finishing in the top 15. Nice save.

12. Matt Kenseth, 3,077 -- Kenseth is 20 points ahead of Vickers and 37 in front of 14th place Busch because of Kenseth's perseverance and the sterling effort of the No. 17 team to fix Kenseth's car after it brushed the wall. Kenseth finished 12th and he easily could have finished 10 or more spots lower. The No. 17 team saved its season Sunday night.

Ten to watch

The field for the 2009 Chase for the Sprint Cup will be decided Saturday night at Richmond International Raceway. Here's a look at the 10 drivers battling for the final eight spots in the 12-driver field. All statistical references are for Sprint Cup races at Richmond unless otherwise indicated.

5. Carl Edwards -- Just a few weeks ago, anyone would have said Edwards had a better chance of breaking a foot playing Frisbee than missing the Chase. Then he went and broke his foot playing Frisbee ... and his once-comfortable lead of 216 points over the 13th-place driver is down to 105. Edwards still should make the Chase, but he sure made it hard on himself.

6. Kasey Kahne -- Kahne has experience making the Chase in the final race. This time he must protect his lead rather than drive his way in and hope for the best. Kahne has one win and five top-10s in 11 starts, but he finished 29th in May and 19th last September.

7. Kurt Busch -- Finishes of 36th and 38th in two of the past three races erased what was considered an impregnable lead of 275 points over the 13th-place driver. Now it's 95. It's still healthy, but Busch must be a lot more careful. He has one win and five top-10s in 17 starts at Richmond.

8. Juan Montoya -- Montoya has one top-10 in five starts, and it came in the spring. He has done a terrific job points racing and will get the job done Saturday night. He is 88 points north of 13th place Brian Vickers.

9. Ryan Newman -- Newman doesn't have the lead he once had, but he has finished in the top 10 the past two races to stabilize his team. He finished fourth at Richmond in May and has one win and nine top-10s in 15 starts.

10. Mark Martin -- Martin is coming off consecutive top-fives, but he also has seven finishes of 31st or worse. He finished fifth at Richmond in May for his third top-five in a row at the track. Overall, he has 16 top-fives and 26 top-10s in 47 starts at Richmond. His lone win came in 1990.

11. Greg Biffle -- Biffle scrambled to a 10th-place finish last week, which sends mixed signals. The positive is that Biffle pulled out a top-10 under extreme pressure, but the downside is that he teetered on disaster, which isn't the first time that has happened this season. Biffle has five top-10s in 14 starts at Richmond but none in his past five. Not a good sign.

12. Matt Kenseth -- Kenseth is in familiar territory -- he has been 12th in the standings in five of the past seven races and 11th after the other two. He has finished 10th through 14th in the past six races this season, but that might not be good enough given Kyle Busch's record at Richmond. Kenseth has one win and nine top-10s at Richmond, but he has none in his past four starts, including finishes of 38th and 39th. If he finishes in the 30s again, he misses his first Chase.

13. Brian Vickers -- History is not with Vickers at Richmond, but ... he did win the pole in May for his second pole at the track, and he finished 15th for his best finish since an eighth as a rookie in his first Cup start there in 2004. Vickers has been driving with the pressure on for weeks and has responded in a huge way. He has six top-10s, including a win, in his past eight starts, and finished 11th and 12th in the other two races. When he started this run, he was 17th, 197 points out of 12th. If he makes the Chase, it will be one of the biggest stories of the year.

14. Kyle Busch -- Which leads us to Busch. If he doesn't make the Chase, that will be one of the biggest stories, as well. Saturday night's race will be his "clutchest" of his young career. Fortunately for Busch, it comes at a track on which he has excelled. He won here in May for his seventh top-five in nine starts. His 6.1 average finish at Richmond is his best at any Cup track. If I may state the obvious: He needs another finish of sixth or better to even have a shot at the top 12. The team is thinking win. It might be right.

-- Sporting News Wire Service