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Drop the green on Chase; title run begins at Loudon

By NASCAR.COM
September 17, 2009
03:40 PM EDT
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Preview Show
Beau Estes and Mike Bell break down Loudon, and drivers suggest it's essential to get off to a good start in the first Chase race.
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Fantasy Report
Mike Bell has a two-time Loudon winner at the top of his list of picks to click at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.
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Garage Expert
Larry McReynolds breaks down the Chase format and what it will take to win the Sprint Cup championship.
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Track Facts
Nikki Alexander brings you everything you need to know about the track that hosts the first race in the Chase.
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Inside the Chase
TNT's Marty Snider offers insight on who might have the best chance to win the Cup Series championship.
Complete story

Breaking down the Chase

The Chase for the Sprint Cup begins Sunday at New Hampshire. Here's the breakdown of the top 12 with their points after they were reset for the Chase.

1. Mark Martin, 5,040 points -- Martin says, "I feel like a whole new person," now that he has made the Chase. For Martin's sake, I hope he's not too new. The "old" Martin won four races and has what it takes to win his first championship.

2. Tony Stewart, 5,030 points -- It's official: Stewart limped into the Chase with four consecutive finishes outside the top 10. Before that skid he had not finished outside the top 10 in consecutive races all season. Does Stewart's dry spell really mean anything? We'll find out Sunday.

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Dandy Dozen

Richmond is over, the Chase field is set and the 12 drivers who qualified start the 10-race playoffs on relatively equal footing. So who are these guys and how did they get here?

By the Numbers

Momentum is vital for the 12 Chase drivers and history has shown that a good start at New Hampshire will lead to good things. That's not to say you have to win at Loudon to win the Chase ...

3. Jimmie Johnson, 5,030 points -- Last year Johnson powered into the Chase by winning the final two races of the regular season. This year he had one top-10 in his final six races. Is there cause for concern? If there are no issues with Johnson's car on Sunday, he'll do just fine in the first Chase race.

4. Denny Hamlin, 5,020 points -- Hamlin and Brian Vickers are riding the most momentum, with Hamlin getting the edge after his victory at Richmond. Hamlin finished in the top 10 in his final six races, including two wins. And if you go back eight races, he has seven top-10s, including five top-fives. That's Johnsonesque.

5. Kasey Kahne, 5,020 points -- Kahne's clutch win at Atlanta bodes well for the Chase. The No. 9 team was money when it needed to be. Now the question is whether it can sustain that success for 10 races. Kahne hasn't done it all season. The most consecutive top-10s he posted were three, and the last time he had back-to-back top-fives was in June 2008.

6. Jeff Gordon, 5,010 points -- Gordon and Stewart are tied for the most top-10s with 18, and Gordon has 12 top-fives, one fewer than Stewart. Gordon's shortcoming has been getting to Victory Lane. On the other hand, he finished second six times. If he breaks through and gets a win or two or fills up the Chase with a bunch more top-fives, a fifth title may be in reach.

7. Kurt Busch, 5,010 points -- Busch's second-place finish at Richmond was huge, considering he had DNFs in two of the previous three races. But that wasn't the only big news out of Richmond. His crew chief, Pat Tryson, gave notice that he will be Martin Truex Jr.'s crew chief at Michael Waltrip Racing next year. Talk about bad timing for Busch.

8. Brian Vickers, 5,010 points -- What a job by Vickers to make the Chase. In the final nine races of the regular season, he had seven top-10s -- including a win -- and finishes of 11th and 12th. He started his hot streak right after finishing 35th at ... New Hampshire, where the Chase begins Sunday. That was one of his three DNFs of the season. If Vickers and crew chief Robin Pemberton continue their run, the No. 83 team might be the surprise of the Chase.

9. Carl Edwards, 5,000 points -- New Hampshire is Race 27. Everyone knows what Edwards didn't do in the first 26 races, so there's no reason to revisit the regular season. No driver appreciates a fresh start more than Edwards, who had eight top-fives, including three wins, in last year's Chase when he finished second to Johnson. One word of advice to Edwards: Don't try to get it all back in one race.

10. Ryan Newman, 5,000 points -- Which Newman will we see in the Chase? The Newman who had an early season stretch of six top-10s (five in the top five) that basically put him in the Chase? Or the Newman who followed that stretch with eight finishes outside the top 10 in the 12 races leading up to the Chase? If it's the latter, thank you for playing. If it's the former, we have a dark horse on our hands.

11. Juan Montoya, 5,000 points -- Montoya made no apologies for points-racing his way into the Chase (nor should he). So, the big question is what will he do now that he's in. That's easy: Whatever it takes to win. Montoya will push the issue, if needed, or he'll play it safe and take the points. Some drivers -- Kyle Busch -- can't do that. Montoya can. This is one facet of the Chase I'm really looking forward to watching play out.

12. Greg Biffle, 5,000 points -- It would be easy to write off Biffle, who had an inconsistent season and hung on to make the Chase. But remember this: Biffle entered the 2008 Chase winless and as the 11th seed and promptly won the first two races. Considering the talent of Biffle and the No. 16 team, that certainly can happen again.

The End

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