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Indications of vulnerability for NASCAR's Superman? (cont'd)
Of course, circumstances have played a part. Johnson clinched his berth in the playoff several weeks before the regular season ended, enabling his No. 48 team to go all-out for race wins. That came with a price, like the empty fuel cell that left him coasting to the finish at Michigan. At Bristol, he had a lug nut fall behind the wheel during a stop. At Richmond, he lost ground after pit stops. Fontana, one of his better tracks, has been moved to later in the season.
It's all added up to some rather shockingly ordinary results for Johnson, who enters the Chase seeded third, 10 points behind leader and teammate Mark Martin. "Definitely, it's a little bit different. Coming off two wins going into the Chase in the past, there's no way get around the fact that there's a lot of momentum and confidence that go with that," he conceded.
|   | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 6 | 4 | 3 |
| Top-5s | 8 | 14 | 9 | 9 |
| Top-10s | 18 | 16 | 14 | 15 |
|   | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 4 | 3 | ? |
| Top-5s | 5* | 6 | 6 | ? |
| Top-10s | 6 | 8 | 8 | ? |
"Going into the Chase as a champion and dealing with different experiences in the past, I have to block out all of it. Even if we were on a run of good finishes, it doesn't guarantee that we're going to get off to a good start. You really have to look at each day and focus on that day and do what you can.
"Past experience doesn't mean anything at that point. It might help your notebook. It makes you feel good when you walk in the gates and before you get in the car. But when you're on the track, you've got to get the job done. So I'm really trying to forget the last two races, [which] weren't like we hoped they would be, and focus on what we need to do here at Loudon."
As good as the Chase has been to Johnson, there's no magical transformation that takes place each time the postseason rolls around. He and crew chief Chad Knaus don't flip a switch, or open some super-secret notebook, or unleash a barrage of tactics they've been saving for just the right time.
There's a confidence boost, for certain, but it comes less from the time of year and more from knowing that several of the tracks suit him -- at Martinsville, for instance, "I walk into those gates feeling like I'm 300 pounds and can get anything done," he said -- and having strong, dependable cars.
But then again, this is the point in the season when Johnson historically begins to shine. And everybody in the garage area knows it.
"I've sat here and watched them step it up when the Chase started, so that might be the case," Martin said. "Obviously, they're the ones that are the most concerned based on their past history. I'm sure they've not been quite as ferocious on the race track the last few races, maybe.
"But all they have to do it just hit it. Nobody's going to beat an [average finish of] five or a five-and-a half. Anybody who does that for 10 races is going to hold that trophy. I'd be surprised if anyone can do that this year with the way the contenders are."
Martin was referring to Johnson's average finish of 5.2 from last year. The consensus in the garage is that the number will be higher this season. "It won't be a five-point-whatever to win the championship," said Denny Hamlin, seeded fourth. "I don't think that's possible with the double-file restarts. That's such an equalizer, and it lets so many people back in the game late in the race."
Vickers agreed. "I really don't believe it's going to be that low this year," he said. "I think there's too much competition, not only within the Chase, but even cars outside the Chase that can still win races and still run up front and still be in the top five.
"So I think the average finish of the person that wins the championship is not going to be that low. I don't think you have to finish an average of fifth this year to win it. It's still going to be low, it's not going to go to 15. I just think it's going to be higher than five -- probably somewhere between five and 10. More of probably a historical average than it has been the past couple of years."
And yet, Johnson isn't conceding anything. He's optimistic about New Hampshire, where he's won twice and has the second-best average finish (behind Hamlin) among all active drivers. He loves the fact that Fontana, where he's won three times, is now in the Chase. He relishes the idea of going back to Martinsville, where no one is better. He raves about the strength of the rapport between him and Knaus. Maybe NASCAR's Superman really is in there somewhere, in the guise of a mild-mannered Clark Kent.
"I feel we're stronger than we've ever been going into the Chase," Johnson said. "I know the last few races haven't gone our way and might not show that, but I'm really looking forward to these final 10."
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