Ten truths we hold to be self evident after 10 races (cont'd)

5. Even though it's been only 10 races, the standings after Richmond usually are a pretty good indicator of who will qualify for the Chase.
Last year the only two who were in the top 12 after Richmond who didn't make the Chase were Newman, who was 11th then, and Kasey Kahne, who was 12th. They were replaced by Gordon and Matt Kenseth.

Two years ago, 11 of the 12 guys who were atop the points after the first visit to Richmond ended up making the Chase. The only exception was Dale Earnhardt Jr., who ended up being replaced by Martin Truex Jr.

Danger sign

Joe Menzer says Carl Edwards' crash should be a wake-up call that Talladega is not safe.

• More
• Wreck reaches the fans
• Hint of harsher penalties
• Safety withstands scrutiny
• No reining in destruction
• Edwards, NASCAR meet
• Blog: NASCAR Says ...

6. Talladega still tops the list in terms of the one place where safety improvements must be made.
Carl Edwards' claim that NASCAR will simply keep racing there "until someone gets killed" before changes to the style of racing are made was more or less dismissed by NASCAR officials as a knee-jerk reaction, and to some degree maybe it was. The guy said it just moments after his No. 99 Ford nearly was launched into the frontstretch grandstands.

And listen, we get it that the sport can never be totally safe when drivers are pushing the envelope, often at speeds approaching 200 mph, in cars that weigh 3,400 pounds apiece. Plus NASCAR deserves credit for many safety improvements it has made over the last decade, including those built into the new car that has allowed Edwards and others to walk away from some horrific crashes. But more can be and must be done at Talladega, even at the risk of making that exciting race less entertaining. That risk vs. the reward of making certain no fans are placed in jeopardy on that frontstretch again is well worth undertaking.

7. Juan Montoya and Mark Martin have a better chance of making the Chase than Dale Earnhardt Jr.
It's time to face reality, Junior Nation. This does not appear to be your year. It may never be your year. Junior is a great guy and a talented -- let's say good, but not great -- driver. He's also 34 years old now and the numbers don't lie. He's won one race in the last two-plus seasons, and a total of just four in the last four-plus seasons. Kyle Busch approaches those numbers on some weekends. After finishing 27th at Richmond, Earnhardt is lagging behind at 18th in the points (that's one spot ahead of rookie Marcos Ambrose, to put it in perspective).

Montoya, on the other hand, is 14th and it could be even better. He has had some races where he ran well and either made a critical mistake, much like Junior has done several times himself, or simply had bad luck and got caught up in something not of his own doing. Keep your eye on him. He's coming. Meanwhile, Martin, Earnhardt's Hendrick Motorsports teammate and 16 years his senior, already has won once this season and sits 15th in points despite a horrendous start that mostly was due to uncharacteristic parts failures and just plain bad luck. Don't count him out, either.

8. Matt Kenseth's blistering fast start proves that blistering fast starts don't mean much.
No one ever really forgets who wins the season-opening Daytona 500, nor should they, but Kenseth fell off the map so completely after the first two races that you almost have to think twice to remember that he followed up the Daytona victory with another one in Calfornia one week later.

Kenseth currently rides 12th in the points and could still be a Chase threat, but not unless or before he gets back on the roll he appeared to be on as the season started.

9. Three guys who needed good runs at Richmond last Saturday and got them were Sam Hornish Jr., Jamie McMurray and Casey Mears.
For Hornish, who finished sixth, it was his second top-10 finish in three races -- and of his young Cup career. He went 43 races without one. McMurray, who was seventh, was supposed to break through this year but instead sits only 25th in points even after Saturday's strong showing. And Mears, in his first season of employment with Richard Childress Racing and his very first race since Richard Childress himself mandated a crew swap between Mears' No. 07 team and Kevin Harvick's No. 29 team, now has moved up to 20th (read more).

10. Darlington is next and universally is described by drivers as the ultimate test of their skills.
Guess who is the defending champion?

It's Kyle Busch. Since 2004, the last year Darlington hosted two annual events, there have only been a total of just four winners there, with the others being Johnson (twice), Greg Biffle (twice) and Gordon. So young Mr. Busch is in pretty good company.

The opinions expressed are solely those of the writer.

Joe Menzer is the author of "The Great American Gamble: How the 1979 Daytona 500 Gave Birth to a NASCAR Nation." Click here to purchase.