Ten truths we hold to be self evident after 10 races

As hard as it may be to believe, the Sprint Cup season is 10 races old already. By the end of this month, we'll be halfway through the 26-race regular season that sets the field for the 10-race dash to the championship.

What have we learned? Who will be there at the end to compete in the Chase for the Sprint Cup championship?

Ten races into the 2009 season, here are 10 things we know:

1. Jeff Gordon is back.
Then again, what about his back? Gordon ended a 47-race winless streak by winning in Texas at one of only two tracks on the current Sprint Cup circuit where he had never previously won. He has been the points leader for most of the season thus far, moving back into that position with an eighth-place finish at Richmond International Raceway on Saturday while Kurt Busch, who had been the points leader for a week, settled for 12th and fell 10 points off the pace.

In or out?

Statistics show the top 12 following the spring Richmond race are many times the same for the Chase. If it's not, who's going to climb back in?

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The only question about Gordon continuing his quest for a fifth championship is whether or not his troublesome back will hold up. It's bothering him more than a little -- more than he's willing to let on -- and could become a serious issue as the season wears on (read more). If he can continue to put the pain on the backburner, so to speak, he'll be there to contend at the end. His mental focus, and more importantly his and crew chief Steve Letarte's improved feel for the new Cup car, are where they need to be.

2. Kyle Busch gets all the ink, but Kurt is pretty good, too.
Kyle won at Richmond, earning his series-high third victory of the season and his 50th in NASCAR's top three series in a career that is, remarkably, still in its infancy. So it has become all too easy to overlook Kurt these days.

Guess which Busch brother is ahead of the other in the standings at the moment? That's right. Kurt is second, nipping at Gordon's bumper, while Kyle sits fifth. This isn't pointed out to downplay the impressive display young Kyle continues to put on; no driver is more relentless, and perhaps sometimes a little too reckless, in his pursuit of Victory Lane. But Kurt has been solid all year long and was downright dominant in his one win of the year at Atlanta, the kind of 1.5-mile track that folks need to master to get up front in the 10-race Chase.

3. Maybe Tony Stewart won't struggle after all, and neither will Stewart-Haas Racing.
Many assumed that would be the case when Stewart left Joe Gibbs Racing at the end of last season to assume control of his own two-car race operation.

But after finishing second at Richmond, Stewart sits third in points -- and teammate Ryan Newman, who struggled at the outset of the season, is now up to 10th after finishing fourth at Richmond (read more). Neither has won a race yet, but at this point does anyone doubt that one or the other -- most likely Stewart because he has been most consistent -- won't celebrate in Victory Lane soon?

4. Jimmie Johnson is human.
We weren't sure until Richmond, when he was penalized twice and wrecked twice.

But just remember: the three-time defending champion is still sixth in points, one spot ahead of where he was leaving Richmond last spring.

5. Even though it's been only 10 races, the standings after Richmond usually are a pretty good indicator of who will qualify for the Chase.
Last year the only two who were in the top 12 after Richmond who didn't make the Chase were Newman, who was 11th then, and Kasey Kahne, who was 12th. They were replaced by Gordon and Matt Kenseth.

Two years ago, 11 of the 12 guys who were atop the points after the first visit to Richmond ended up making the Chase. The only exception was Dale Earnhardt Jr., who ended up being replaced by Martin Truex Jr.

Danger sign

Joe Menzer says Carl Edwards' crash should be a wake-up call that Talladega is not safe.

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6. Talladega still tops the list in terms of the one place where safety improvements must be made.
Carl Edwards' claim that NASCAR will simply keep racing there "until someone gets killed" before changes to the style of racing are made was more or less dismissed by NASCAR officials as a knee-jerk reaction, and to some degree maybe it was. The guy said it just moments after his No. 99 Ford nearly was launched into the frontstretch grandstands.

And listen, we get it that the sport can never be totally safe when drivers are pushing the envelope, often at speeds approaching 200 mph, in cars that weigh 3,400 pounds apiece. Plus NASCAR deserves credit for many safety improvements it has made over the last decade, including those built into the new car that has allowed Edwards and others to walk away from some horrific crashes. But more can be and must be done at Talladega, even at the risk of making that exciting race less entertaining. That risk vs. the reward of making certain no fans are placed in jeopardy on that frontstretch again is well worth undertaking.

7. Juan Montoya and Mark Martin have a better chance of making the Chase than Dale Earnhardt Jr.
It's time to face reality, Junior Nation. This does not appear to be your year. It may never be your year. Junior is a great guy and a talented -- let's say good, but not great -- driver. He's also 34 years old now and the numbers don't lie. He's won one race in the last two-plus seasons, and a total of just four in the last four-plus seasons. Kyle Busch approaches those numbers on some weekends. After finishing 27th at Richmond, Earnhardt is lagging behind at 18th in the points (that's one spot ahead of rookie Marcos Ambrose, to put it in perspective).

Montoya, on the other hand, is 14th and it could be even better. He has had some races where he ran well and either made a critical mistake, much like Junior has done several times himself, or simply had bad luck and got caught up in something not of his own doing. Keep your eye on him. He's coming. Meanwhile, Martin, Earnhardt's Hendrick Motorsports teammate and 16 years his senior, already has won once this season and sits 15th in points despite a horrendous start that mostly was due to uncharacteristic parts failures and just plain bad luck. Don't count him out, either.

8. Matt Kenseth's blistering fast start proves that blistering fast starts don't mean much.
No one ever really forgets who wins the season-opening Daytona 500, nor should they, but Kenseth fell off the map so completely after the first two races that you almost have to think twice to remember that he followed up the Daytona victory with another one in Calfornia one week later.

Kenseth currently rides 12th in the points and could still be a Chase threat, but not unless or before he gets back on the roll he appeared to be on as the season started.

9. Three guys who needed good runs at Richmond last Saturday and got them were Sam Hornish Jr., Jamie McMurray and Casey Mears.
For Hornish, who finished sixth, it was his second top-10 finish in three races -- and of his young Cup career. He went 43 races without one. McMurray, who was seventh, was supposed to break through this year but instead sits only 25th in points even after Saturday's strong showing. And Mears, in his first season of employment with Richard Childress Racing and his very first race since Richard Childress himself mandated a crew swap between Mears' No. 07 team and Kevin Harvick's No. 29 team, now has moved up to 20th (read more).

10. Darlington is next and universally is described by drivers as the ultimate test of their skills.
Guess who is the defending champion?

It's Kyle Busch. Since 2004, the last year Darlington hosted two annual events, there have only been a total of just four winners there, with the others being Johnson (twice), Greg Biffle (twice) and Gordon. So young Mr. Busch is in pretty good company.

The opinions expressed are solely those of the writer.

Joe Menzer is the author of "The Great American Gamble: How the 1979 Daytona 500 Gave Birth to a NASCAR Nation." Click here to purchase.