Handicapping Kyle Busch's chance to make Chase (cont'd)

Looking at the five seasons prior to the Chase format, and taking the assumption that finishing order would not have changed, two other drivers would have raced their way into a 12-car Chase in 2003 and Jeff Burton would have come close to matching Kenseth's rally in 2001, making up 159 points in a six-race stretch.

However, the top 12 remained unchanged in 2006, 2002, 2000 and 1999, so there's no guarantee that there will be a wholesale shuffling of the standings between now and Richmond.

And there's the rub. Of the 31 drivers who were within 205 points of 12th place with six races remaining since 1999, only Kenseth, Gordon and Burton have made up the kind of deficit Busch faces heading into Sunday's Pennsylvania 500 at Pocono Raceway. In 2006, Carl Edwards came close, putting together a streak of four top-10s in a five-race stretch to close to within 28 points of 12th-place Greg Biffle.

So why have fewer than 10 percent of the drivers facing a deficit as large as Busch's seen that kind of a rally? There are several factors. Under the point system designed by Bob Latford, consistency is key. A bad finish penalizes a driver more severely than a good finish provides a reward. It's very difficult for a team struggling to stay in the top 15 to suddenly put together a six-race stretch that allows them to leapfrog several positions. And sometimes it comes down to nothing more than avoiding the bad luck that strikes your competition.

Kenseth's 2005 provides the perfect example. Seventeenth in the standings after finishing 36th at Pocono, Kenseth's chances of making the Chase appeared to be slim at best. But he scored a top-five finish at Indy while five of the six drivers immediately ahead of him in the standings had mediocre-to-poor performances that day. And despite an 18th at Watkins Glen, Kenseth went on to finish third at Michigan, win the Bristol night race, score a seventh at Fontana and finish second at Richmond to cap his comeback.

At the same time, Dale Jarrett finished 22nd or worse five times. Harvick's lone top-10 in that span of races was a 10th at Richmond. Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s Chase chances were sunk when he finished last at Indy and 38th at Fontana. And Joe Nemechek strung together three top-10s during that stretch, but bad finishes at the Brickyard and Richmond wrecked his hopes.

Similar circumstances four years earlier allowed Burton to jump four positions in the standings between Indianapolis and Richmond. Kenseth, 12th at the time, hit a rough stretch where he finished 23rd or worse in five of six starts. Jimmy Spencer blew engines at Watkins Glen and Bristol and crashed at Darlington. And Steve Park had an excellent chance of finishing in the top 10 in the points before a freak accident in the Busch Series race at Darlington, resulting in severe head injuries, put a premature end to his season.

So back to the original hypothesis: Can Kyle Busch make the Chase this season? The odds say it's possible, but not probable. And chances are he'll need a great finish at Pocono, combined with someone else's ill fortune, to have a shot.