Handicapping Kyle Busch's chance to make Chase

So what are Kyle Busch's chances of rallying to make the 2009 Chase? After finishing 38th at Indianapolis, Busch is now 82 points behind 12th-place Matt Kenseth with six races remaining before the field is set. With three Cup wins this season, Busch would seem the logical choice to supplant someone currently residing in the top 12. However, this has been a season of all or nothing for Busch, who has just six top-10 finishes, and only one in his last eight races.

Can he do it?

Most everyone thought Kyle Busch was a shoo-in to make the Chase this season. But with six races left, he's 82 points out. Our writers debate Busch's chances of erasing that deficit in Track Smack.

• Complete story
• Busch looking to change ways
• New attitude put to test in Indy

If past performance is any indication, somebody currently outside of the top 12 has a one-in-five chance of fighting their way back in by the time the checkered flag falls at Richmond, which could provide some consolation for David Reutimann, 68 points behind with six races to go and best positioned to take advantage of somebody's stumble.

But for Busch to be the one, he'll be swimming against the mathematical current. The same goes for Brian Vickers and Clint Bowyer, who still harbor long-shot chances of making the Chase field.

Since the Chase format was created in 2004 -- and taking into consideration the current rules allowing for a 12-driver Chase -- at least one driver would have bumped their way back into the top 12 in all but one season. Even though Jeremy Mayfield provided the drama at Richmond by racing his way into the inaugural Chase, he was 11th in points after 20 races, so he fell out only to get back in.

The real impressive late-season run in 2004 might have been provided by Mark Martin, who made the Chase field despite being 13th after Pocono, 20 points out of 12th (and 89 points behind 10th-place Kevin Harvick).

In 2005, Matt Kenseth erased a 201-point deficit -- the largest comeback in the last decade -- to make the Chase, while Jeff Gordon (102 points behind at the time) would have tied for 12th with Jamie McMurray had there been a 12-driver field. And in the last two seasons, the driver 13th in the standings after 20 races has made the Chase: Kurt Busch in 2007 and Harvick in 2008. (Continued)