RICHMOND, Va. -- Juan Montoya knows anything can happen.

"I think we've done a good enough job all year that if we have a nice, quiet evening, everything should go well," he said at Richmond International Raceway, where Saturday night the Earnhardt Ganassi driver will try to qualify for NASCAR's postseason for the first time in his stock-car career. "But you still have the chance that things could go terribly wrong and you could miss it."

He's eighth in the standings and 88 points clear of 13th place, but Montoya's appearance in the 12-man Chase still isn't guaranteed. He needs a finish of 18th or better Saturday night to become the first international driver to qualify for NASCAR's year-end playoff. Like he said, anything can happen. A tire can go down at the wrong time. Lug nuts can fall off a wheel. Another car can spin in front of him. Some $2 part can snap and send him careening into the wall.

Or this Colombian-born, former Formula One driver can win the Sprint Cup title.

Anything can happen, right?

Tony Stewart may be the points leader and Jimmie Johnson may be the three-time defending champion, but from a championship perspective the most dangerous driver in the garage may well be Montoya, who's gallivanting through the latter stages of this regular season like a driver without a care in the world. Sunday night's third-place finish in Atlanta, his latest strong run in a season full of them, was another indication that Montoya needs to be taken seriously from a championship perspective.

No, he's never won a NASCAR race on an oval track. Yes, he's been in stock cars for only three years. But take out the cut tires suffered in back-to-back races at Michigan and Bristol -- both occurring when he was in the top 10 -- and Montoya hasn't had a finish worse than 12th since late June.

And here's the scary part: he's not even really trying yet.

Throughout this 26-race regular season, as the Chase has drawn ever nearer, the No. 42 team has admittedly played it conservative, each week aiming for a certain finish to inch their man a little closer to a playoff berth. Rather than go hell-bent after wins at Pocono and Atlanta, they've settled for top-fives, good points days, and a car in the garage in one piece.

Barring an unforeseen collapse Saturday night, that all changes at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, where the Chase opens next week. That's where Montoya and crew chief Brian Pattie release the hounds, and we begin to get an idea of what this team is actually capable.

Juan Montoya

Career results: track type

Track	No.	W	T-5	T-10
Superspeedway	31	0	3	6
Intermediate	45	0	2	7
Short Track	16	0	0	3
Road Course	6	1	2	5

Friday at Richmond, Pattie tried to play coy, not wanting to jinx himself with a Chase berth still unsecured. But he knows what he has under the hood. He knows what he has behind the wheel. And he knows what his team has done the past three months even with its internal restrictor plate firmly in place.

"Obviously, I think the motor shop has more coming down the pike. Some RCR cars have been testing for us. We've got some stuff, setup-wise, that we haven't raced," Pattie said. "... And to be honest, I think Juan has another gear. Just watching him, seeing how he reacts, he's going about this so nonchalantly. He's kind of like, 'OK, we'll run 10th tonight, no big deal.' It is a big deal, but he acts like it's not. I don't know what gear he has left, but I believe he has one."

Montoya, whose previous best points finish in NASCAR is 20th, seems undaunted. "I'll tell you the truth, if you look at a championship, it's still numbers," he said. "The average number has to be a lot better than what it was to make the Chase. We've got to run as good as we can every week. I think we can take more chances, because now you're not going to fall out of the Chase or anything. You don't have to be as conservative as I've been all year, and we'll see what happens."

The rub, of course, is that Montoya has yet to win on an oval track, something that Johnson has shown is integral to any championship hopes under the Chase format. After winning once during the playoff en route to his first title, the Hendrick Motorsports driver ripped off four consecutive victories to secure his second crown, and put a lock on the record-tying three-peat with a trio of race wins last year.

That model, using Victory Lane as a stepping stone to the head table at the postseason banquet, is one every championship tries to follow. Yet Montoya's lone Sprint Cup victory came at Infineon Raceway, a road course the circuit won't visit again until next summer.

But in Montoya's case, there may be mitigating factors. The goal of getting into the Chase has clearly overshadowed everything else. Pattie doesn't think the No. 42 team has lucked into any of their top-10 finishes, and has had cars clearly capable of winning at Indianapolis (where a pit-road penalty scuttled an almost sure victory), and at Pocono and Atlanta (where the bigger picture necessitated conservatism late), among other places. For his part, Montoya believes it's only a matter of time.

"I think the wins will come," he said. "The way we're running, I think we've been there. We've been so close, three or four times this year that we've had a chance of winning the race and it hasn't happened. I think it's just a matter of time. Before you can get wins, you have to compete for them. You have to be there and give yourself chances, and we're doing that. As long as were giving ourselves chances, things will happen. Sooner or later, things will go our way."

And besides, Pattie isn't necessarily convinced that the Johnson method is the only way to win a championship. Ask him if his team has to win races to win the title, and the crew chief starts shaking his head.

"Unless the average points [gained] over the last 10 [races] is 190, you don't have to win. Not true," he said, referring to the number that goes to the race winner. "... Is there a rule that states you have to win a race? No. Do I think we can win a championship without winning a race? We absolutely can. You can second and third them to death."

And with that, Pattie went off to work on a car that was fastest in final Sprint Cup practice on Friday. Could they actually win a title by defying conventional NASCAR wisdom? Anything can happen.

The opinions expressed are those solely of the writer.