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BackWant to 'Jimmie-proof' Chase? Here's how to do it (cont'd)

That's a career average finish of better than 10th at seven of the 10 Chase tracks. Jeff Gordon, by comparison, has a top-10 average finish at only three -- Kansas, Martinsville, and Homestead. Mark Martin has averaged a top-10 at only one Chase track, Phoenix. Stunningly, Tony Stewart has no Chase tracks at which he's averaged better than 10th (although he comes close at Phoenix, where he's a 10.1). Granted, Johnson hasn't been racing in NASCAR as long as those other drivers, and a greater number of starts will drag down average finish as a matter of course. But it's also clear that Johnson's rivals often fare better on the kind of tracks the Cup tour usually visits in the summertime, and are nowhere to be seen in the Chase.

Armed with that knowledge, here's what a Jimmie-proofed Chase might look like:

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Jimmie Johnson has one DNF at Richmond with seven finishes of 20th or worse.

1. Richmond -- Congratulations, Richmond. You've been promoted from regular-season cut-off race to Chase opener. Don't like it? Too bad. Because statistically, of all the active tracks on the Cup tour, you're Johnson's worst. Yes, he's won there three times, but his average finish in Richmond is an un-Johnson-like 18.2, and he's finished a lap down there in half of his 16 career starts.

2. Michigan -- Johnson has never won in 16 starts at Michigan, which is rather strange given his success on the nearly identical 2-mile oval in Fontana, Calif. Shoot, he's only cracked the top-five there twice. The Brooklyn track is also a place where Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus have had trouble figuring out fuel mileage, as evidenced by their shortcomings there earlier this season. Oh, and Michigan in mid-September can't be any colder than Charlotte was last week.

3. Bristol -- Ask Johnson which track frustrates him the most, and he'll likely tell you the half-mile oval in East Tennessee. Bristol is another place where Johnson has never won, and where he's only finished on the lead lap half the time. His average finish there is 15.9. A Chase berth would also likely help Bristol, too, given that the racing has grown a little overly cautious there in its current late August date.

4. Sonoma -- Johnson has never won on a road course, and Sonoma gets the nod here for two reasons. First, the weather in early fall is better in Northern California wine country than it is in Watkins Glen, N.Y. And second, Johnson has a tougher time on the Infineon layout, with an average finish of 17.4 there compared to 13 at Watkins Glen. And besides, we need a road course in the Chase, don't we?

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The No. 48 has six DNFs at Talladega in 15 starts with Jimmie Johnson behind the wheel.

5. Kansas -- Actually, Johnson is pretty good at Kansas, with one win there and an average finish of 10.2. Statistically, it's his 11th-best track. But he's far from automatic there, with a handful of mediocre (by Johnsonian standards) runs mixed in with a pair of top-fives. His ninth-place result there earlier in the month stands as his worst finish in this season's Chase.

6. Talladega -- Big, bad Talladega has bedeviled everyone on the Cup tour at one time or another, and Johnson is no exception. Johnson's victory there in 2006 is the high point in a rather checkered history which has also seen three engine failures, three crashes, and an average finish of 17.7. Despite all he's accomplished, not even Johnson is immune to the whims of the Big One.

7. Las Vegas -- Congratulations, Bruton. You have your second race in the desert. And you've got it because Johnson and Knaus have struggled at Las Vegas since the place was resurfaced and the current Cup car was implemented. Yes, Johnson won three consecutive there from 2005-07. But the last two years, they've placed 29th and 24th. No less than Rick Hendrick called that 2008 effort, in which Johnson finished two laps down, the worst race in the history of the No. 48 car. Clearly, they still have work to do there.

8. Texas -- As mentioned earlier, Johnson is pretty good at Texas, statistically his sixth-best track. But you try finding 10 places where the No. 48 team struggles. Not easy. Regardless, Johnson has won just once in Fort Worth -- and his team's missed setup there in 2008 nearly let Carl Edwards back in the championship hunt. Also, in 12 career races there, he's led only 78 laps. Of course, all he has to lead is the right one.

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There are only six tracks on the Cup schedule where Jimmie Johnson is still searching for his first victory.

9. Rockingham -- Call up Andy Hillenburg -- we're going back to the Rock. Why? Because of all the premier-series tracks Johnson has competed on in his NASCAR career, North Carolina Speedway has proved statistically his most difficult. His average finish there is 23.2. OK, so maybe Johnson only raced five times in Rockingham, and maybe the track was moved off the NASCAR schedule before the soon-to-be three-time champ really hit his stride. But every little bit helps, right?

10. Homestead -- End the Chase in the same place it closes now, on a track where Johnson has never won, and has an average finish of 13.6. He's also led only 43 laps in eight career starts at Homestead, although that likely stems from the fact that Johnson is busy trying to wrap up titles in the season finale, and not necessarily going for the victory.

Now, would that kind of Chase prevent Johnson from winning the title? Not necessarily, given how well his team prepares and how rarely they suffer setbacks. But would it remove the advantage Johnson currently has with so many of his better tracks in the thick of the championship run? Absolutely. Would it make winning a championship more challenging than it is now? No question.

But there are no guarantees. Given enough time, Johnson and Knaus, the two very best at what they do today, could very well run that gauntlet as effortlessly as they cut through the Chase today. Remember, Woods continues to win major golf tournaments even though Tiger-proofing has been stretched to its maximum. So maybe we should still tie those cinder blocks to the back of the No. 48 car, just in case.

The opinions expressed are solely those of the writer.

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