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It's a matter of numbers coming down the stretch

By Duane Cross, NASCAR.COM
November 9, 2009
03:17 PM EST
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Not that anyone noticed, but ...

• RCR had three cars in the top 10 at Texas: Kevin Harvick (fifth), Clint Bowyer (eighth) and Jeff Burton (ninth).

Denny Hamlin
Hamlin

• It's been feast or famine for Denny Hamlin during the Chase: four top-five finishes, four finishes of 22nd or worst. His average finish for the Chase is 18.6 with three DNFs.

A.J. Allmendinger had his first top-10 finish since Dover in September and fifth of the year.

• Strange stat: Kasey Kahne's 33rd-place finish at Texas leaves him with this stats line after 10 races at the track: 11.9 average start, 22.9 average finish. (He averages losing 11 spots per race; TMS just seems like the type track at which he'd be licking his chops. Other than a win and a second-place finish, he hasn't been better than 18th ...)

Scott Speed's 18th-place finish was his best since Bristol (15th) in August and only the fourth time in 33 starts this season that he's finished in the top 20.

So, you think the Chase isn't over?

Jimmie Johnson's 38th-place finish at Texas was a godsend for Mark Martin and Jeff Gordon. That 184-point lead that the No. 48 rolled into the Lone Star State is now a mere 73 points (or one more wrecked race car during the final two races).

There's still hope ... for Martin's first Cup Series championship.

There's still hope ... that Gordon's Drive for Five -- now in its eighth year -- will come to an end.

Fuggetaboutit.

Technically, to clinch at Phoenix, Johnson needs to:

• Lead by 195 points after the race.

Currently up 73 points, he'll need to gain 122 points at Phoenix. (Realistically, he only needs to lead by 161; he'll start the race and earn at least 43rd-place points.)

To clinch at Homestead, Johnson needs to:

• Average a fourth-place finish over the final two races;
• Fifth and a lap led in each of the final two races;
• Sixth and the most laps led in each of the final two races.

If he does that, he'll clinch no matter what any other driver does.

Career stats at Phoenix

Driver Races Wins Top-5 Top-10 Avg. Finish
Jimmie Johnson 12 3 7 10 5.4
Mark Martin 25 2 10 16 9.0
Jeff Gordon 21 1 8 15 10.9

Career stats at Homestead

Driver Races Wins Top-5 Top-10 Avg. Finish
Jimmie Johnson 8 0 2 5 13.6
Mark Martin 9 0 4 5 12.0
Jeff Gordon 10 0 5 8 9.9

And for the Chase-haters ...

The previous point system would look like: Tony Stewart (4,895), Gordon (-93) and Johnson (-94). Alas, it's not 2003 ... (Continued)

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