Joe Menzer -- The champagne hadn't even settled in Jimmie Johnson's overflowing championship cup before the conversation began anew.

Who's the early favorite to be favored to knock Jimmie Johnson from his throne as Sprint Cup champion?

Twice as nice

Kyle Busch celebrates his first Nationwide Series title and ninth victory of the season.

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While no one in his right mind would pick against Johnson next year as he launches his drive for five, it's always popular offseason fodder to try to project who -- if anyone -- can unseat the four-time defending champion next year.

Should it be Mark Martin, who finished second in the point standings to Johnson this season at age 50? How about Jeff Gordon, another four-time champion who helped Hendrick Motorsports complete an unprecedented 1-2-3 sweep in the 2009 points?

Then there are other strong candidates, such as Tony Stewart, who led in points most of the season before the 10-race Chase for the Sprint Cup commenced; Kurt Busch, who finished fourth in points; or even Denny Hamlin, who won Sunday's season-closing Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway and at times outran Johnson in the Chase. And who can completely forget or ignore Carl Edwards, who won a series-high nine races in 2008 and finished second to Johnson in points before shockingly getting shut out this season?

But the choice of former car owner and longtime crew chief Ray Evernham, now primarily an analyst for ESPN, is none of the above. Asked that very question prior to Sunday's race, Evernham was quick with a very different answer.

He chose a driver who didn't even make the 12-man Chase field this season. He said he foresees Kyle Busch rising up to challenge Johnson next season.

Evernham's explanation

Evernham is well aware of the fact that Busch finished 13th in points -- and out of the Chase -- this season despite winning four races. He said he figures that will be a motivating factor next season not only for Busch, but for all those who are charged with making the No. 18 Toyota that Busch drives for Joe Gibbs Racing go faster on a more consistent basis.

There already has been a crew change for Busch's Cup team next season, with Dave Rogers replacing Steve Addington for the final three races this season.

"I think the fact that [JGR president] J.D. [Gibbs] and [owner] Joe [Gibbs] had somewhat of an off year compared to what they were expecting -- combined with the fact that Toyota saw that, too -- will make for some changes over there," Evernham said.

"I think Steve Addington did a great job [as Busch's crew chief]. Please don't take this the wrong way -- but I think Dave Rogers will make a difference with Kyle. Dave is one of those guys who always has his wheels turning on something. I think you'll see Toyota step up. I think you'll see Joe and J.D. make whatever changes they need to make inside the organization.

"And I also really, firmly believe that when Kyle missed the Chase this year that really bothered him. Now winning this Nationwide championship, he's really going to enjoy that. He's going to be like, 'Wow, I really like this a lot. Now I want to get the big one.'

“

I firmly believe that when Kyle missed the Chase this year that really bothered him. ... I think that's going to make him a threat.

”

RAY EVERNHAM

Kyle Busch

Cup Stats (full seasons)

Year	W	T-5	T-10	Avg. Fin.	Rank
2005	2	9	13	21.0	20
2006	1	10	18	15.5	10
2007	1	11	20	14.1	5
2008	8	17	21	12.5	10
2009	4	9	13	15.4	13

"I think that's going to make him a threat. Kyle being a little bit more mature and realizing what it's like to miss the Chase, and then to also feel what it's like to win a championship, I think all of those things together are going to make him a threat to win the [Cup] championship next season."

JGR's response

Told of Evernham's prediction, J.D. Gibbs could only smile. "Well, Kyle's good," he said.

Despite missing the Chase on the Cup side, Busch won a total of 20 races this season in NASCAR's three national touring series -- winning nine times in the Nationwide Series while also adding seven in the Camping World Truck Series. That gives him a total of 41 wins in the three series during the last two seasons.

But Gibbs said it is the days when Busch is off a little when the finishes need to get better, as they did this season in Nationwide.

"When you watch Kyle in Nationwide and he gets his seconds, he gets his thirds -- well, that's not fun -- but that's the equivalent in Cup of getting your fifths, your tenths, your twelfths on the days when maybe you don't have a winning car," Gibbs said. "And another thing, too, we've seen it with Denny [Hamlin]. As he has gotten older, he's gotten smoother and put himself in position to win more often. As Kyle matures, I think that will be a real valuable piece to the puzzle for him."

It is the essence of how Johnson operates. Even on the days when he is perhaps below par (well, par for him), he's still good enough to earn a respectable finish. While acknowledging the excellence of Johnson's No. 48 team, Gibbs did insist following Sunday's race that there will come a time when another race team will need to be ready to take the 48's place at the head of the sport, if only for a season or two.

His thinking is, why not his organization?

"I've still got a little bit of that football background and mentality -- and nothing lasts forever. I don't care if you're the Steelers, the Redskins or the 49ers," said Gibbs, whose father, Joe, coached the Washington Redskins to three Super Bowl championships. "Our goal is to be ready to take the mantle of that, to be ready whenever their time comes to an end. Like in every sport, we want to be there and prove we belong with them, or can catch them, or just be there when and if they fall a little."

Time seems to be on JGR's side. Hamlin is "our old man at 29," according to Gibbs. Busch is only 24 and Joey Logano, JGR's third driver, became the youngest driver in NASCAR history to win a Cup race this season and won't turn 20 until next May.

"As my dad has said, by the time Denny and Kyle and Joey are done driving, he will long ago have been put in a [retirement] home," Gibbs said. "All of our guys are young and will be driving for a long time. Our future is exciting."

If Evernham is right, there is no doubt about that. And the future may be coming fast.

The opinions expressed are solely those of the writer.

Joe Menzer is the author of "The Great American Gamble: How the 1979 Daytona 500 Gave Birth to a NASCAR Nation." Click here to purchase.