Four drivers unanimous selections for 2010 Chase

NASCAR.COM staffers make their predictions on who will make the Chase, listed in alphabetical order, and expand on one driver they think will miss the cut in 2010.

Mark Aumann

In the Chase
• Greg Biffle
• Clint Bowyer
• Kurt Busch
• Kyle Busch
• Jeff Burton
• Jeff Gordon
• Denny Hamlin
• Jimmie Johnson
• Matt Kenseth
• Mark Martin
• Juan Montoya
• Tony Stewart

Edwards

• Odd man out: Carl Edwards
As tempted as I am to put Jimmie Johnson's name here -- at some point, his incredible run of good fortune has to end -- I just can't see anything in his stats to justify Johnson not at least making the Chase. However, Carl Edwards had the kind of season in 2009 that gives serious concern to how his team will rebound in 2010. Despite not winning, he still made the Chase, thanks to three of his seven top-five finishes coming in June. But after finishing second to Tony Stewart on fuel mileage after dominating Pocono, Edwards seemingly fell off the radar screen for the rest of the year. He led a total of seven laps in the final 22 races and might have been the fourth-best car on his own team during the Chase. I sincerely expect Edwards to be better this season, but having to choose, he has the most question marks in my mind of any of the major contenders.

Jarrod Breeze

In the Chase
• Clint Bowyer
• Kyle Busch
• Dale Earnhardt Jr.
• Carl Edwards
• Jeff Gordon
• Kevin Harvick
• Jimmie Johnson
• Matt Kenseth
• Mark Martin
• Tony Stewart
• Martin Truex Jr.
• Brian Vickers

Hamlin

• Odd man out: Denny Hamlin
Denny Hamlin has made the Chase in each of his four full seasons in the Cup Series. But unless you are Mr. Chase himself, Jimmie Johnson, every driver has stubbed their toe at one time or another. My guess is this year that will be Hamlin, who will falter worse than last year's "preseason favorite as challenger to Johnson," Carl Edwards. Hamlin's year already is off to an inauspicious start, but it's not his toe. Rather it's a torn ACL in the knee. He'll race through it, and whether it proves a detriment is yet to be seen. But greater expectations will be his ultimate downfall.

David Caraviello

In the Chase
• Greg Biffle
• Clint Bowyer
• Kyle Busch
• Kurt Busch
• Carl Edwards
• Jeff Gordon
• Denny Hamlin
• Jimmie Johnson
• Matt Kenseth
• Mark Martin
• Juan Montoya
• Tony Stewart

2010 Cup Schedule

Track	Time (ET)	TV
Daytona	1 p.m.	FOX
Fontana	3 p.m.	FOX
Las Vegas	3 p.m.	FOX
Atlanta	1 p.m.	FOX
Bristol	1 p.m.	FOX
Martinsville	1 p.m.	FOX
Phoenix	7:30 p.m.	FOX
Texas	3 p.m.	FOX
Talladega	1 p.m.	FOX
Richmond	7:30 p.m.	FOX
Darlington	7:30 p.m.	FOX
Dover	1 p.m.	FOX
Charlotte	5:45 p.m.	FOX
Pocono	1 p.m.	TNT
Michigan	1 p.m.	TNT
Sonoma	3 p.m.	TNT
Loudon	1 p.m.	TNT
Daytona	7:30 p.m.	TNT
Chicago	7:30 p.m.	TNT
Indianapolis	1 p.m.	ESPN
Pocono	1 p.m.	ESPN
Watkins Glen	1 p.m.	ESPN
Michigan	1 p.m.	ESPN
Bristol	7:30 p.m.	ABC
Atlanta	7:30 p.m.	ESPN
Richmond	7:30 p.m.	ABC
Loudon	1 p.m.	ESPN
Dover	1 p.m.	ESPN
Kansas	1 p.m.	ESPN
Fontana	3 p.m.	ESPN
Charlotte	7:30 p.m.	ABC
Martinsville	1 p.m.	ESPN
Talladega	1 p.m.	ESPN
Texas	3 p.m.	ESPN
Phoenix	3 p.m.	ESPN
Homestead	1 p.m.	ESPN

• Odd man out: Kasey Kahne
The soap opera that is Richard Petty Motorsports finally takes a toll on its flagship driver in 2010. This isn't a knock on Kasey Kahne's talent -- the kid from Washington state can wheel it about as well as anybody. But he's simply not surrounded by the same resources as his brethren at Hendrick, Gibbs or Roush. Late last year, he left open the possibility of leaving RPM after his contract expires following the 2010 season. No one would be surprised if he did.

Bill Kimm

In the Chase
• Greg Biffle
• Clint Bowyer
• Kyle Busch
• Carl Edwards
• Jeff Gordon
• Denny Hamlin
• Kevin Harvick
• Jimmie Johnson
• Matt Kenseth
• Juan Montoya
• Ryan Newman
• Tony Stewart

• Odd man out: Kurt Busch
Kurt Busch rediscovered his championship form in 2009 thanks to two wins, 10 top-fives, 21 top-10s and a fourth-place finish in the point standings. But that was 2009, and in 2010 I see the No. 2 Dodge just missing out on the Chase. Dodge appears to be on its way out of NASCAR with Penske the only legitimate operation in the Cup Series. Succeeding in NASCAR just doesn't seem like a priority for Dodge, so that could be an issue for Busch. On top of that, a new crew chief atop the pit box means a learning curve for the championship driver. The '09 season was a nice boost for Busch, but I see 2010 being a bust.

Joe Menzer

In the Chase
• Greg Biffle
• Jeff Burton
• Kyle Busch
• Carl Edwards
• Jeff Gordon
• Denny Hamlin
• Jimmie Johnson
• Kasey Kahne
• Mark Martin
• Juan Montoya
• Ryan Newman
• Tony Stewart

• Odd man out: Kurt Busch
Whatever you may think of Kurt Busch, this dude can drive a stock car. Despite that talent -- and the fact that eventually he very well may click with new crew chief Steve Addington -- it's going to take some time. Not only that, but car owner Roger Penske's claim that it's a "competitive advantage" to be the lone organization left in the Dodge Motorsports stable is difficult to comprehend. It's more likely that the last remaining Dodges will get left in the dust of the more formidable team alliances that have been forged with the other three manufacturers. That sizable group includes the No. 18 Toyota of his lil' brother, Kyle, who is poised to challenge for his first Sprint Cup title according to many of those supposedly in the know, partially at big bro Kurt's considerable expense.

Dave Rodman

In the Chase
• Greg Biffle
• Clint Bowyer
• Jeff Burton
• Kurt Busch
• Kyle Busch
• Jeff Gordon
• Denny Hamlin
• Jimmie Johnson
• Mark Martin
• Jamie McMurray
• Juan Montoya
• Tony Stewart

Vickers

• Odd man out: Brian Vickers
When you look at the list of who's "in" the Chase, explaining that is no simpler than explaining who's "out." This exercise proves how brutal this Chase format is. It's a 12-man Chase, not 15. But I'll be darned if I can reasonably come up with someone who won't be in there. I don't believe in sophomore jinxes, and Brian Vickers certainly isn't sophomoric. But reprising their stellar 2009 Chase qualification will be tough to repeat in this crowd.

Chris Stanfield

In the Chase
• Greg Biffle
• Kurt Busch
• Kyle Busch
• Dale Earnhardt Jr.
• Carl Edwards
• Jeff Gordon
• Denny Hamlin
• Jimmie Johnson
• Matt Kenseth
• Mark Martin
• Juan Montoya
• Tony Stewart

Newman

• Odd man out: Ryan Newman
Call it a feeling, but I fear the drought will continue. It's been two years since Ryan Newman visited Victory Lane, winning the season opener at Daytona in 2008. By making the Chase in '09 and placing ninth, Newman had his best season since finishing sixth for Roger Penske in 2006. After a terrible start at the beginning of last season, Newman got going in the middle, made the Chase and finished just OK toward the end. That's my point, actually -- Newman has the skills, but until he finds the consistency, he'll always be in danger of racing on the bubble.

Raygan Swan

In the Chase
• Clint Bowyer
• Jeff Burton
• Kyle Busch
• Carl Edwards
• Jeff Gordon
• Denny Hamlin
• Kevin Harvick
• Jimmie Johnson
• Matt Kenseth
• Mark Martin
• Juan Montoya
• Tony Stewart

• Odd man out: Kasey Kahne
All involved at Roush Fenway Racing and Richard Childress Racing are taking major steps to reverse last season's misfortunes, so count on both stables showing up in the Chase. Hendrick Motorsports drivers almost always make the show and Stewart Haas Racing seems to be secure, as well. This leaves just a few uncertainties. Kasey Kahne is one that comes to mind because more often than not when Richmond rolls around in the fall the No. 9 driver is on the list of drivers on the bubble. The merger with Yates Racing and engine switch from Dodge to Ford may help his chances at Richard Petty Motorsports but it also may be the flux that keeps him outside the top 12.

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• Stories to watch throughout 2010
• Predictions for Hall's second class