Shootout may tell us what for the 500, but not who

1. What do the Budweiser Shootout and the practice sessions we've seen thus far tell us about the kind of Daytona 500 we're going to have on Sunday?

Joe Menzer: Well, history tells us that who wins the Shootout doesn't necessarily tell us much of anything at all about who will win the Daytona 500. The last one to win both in the same year was Dale Jarrett in 2000. But I think the racing was good, and will be again on Sunday.

David Caraviello: It tells us that guys are going to wreck, plain and simple. Of course, they wreck every week. But given the copious amounts of bump-drafting we're going to see and the fact that there are no more limits on it, I think you're going to see a lot of wrecked race cars and hurt feelings on Sunday.

Raygan Swan: Fast racing, sideways racing, aggressive racing. It sounds like the new plate and new bump-drafting rules will make for an amazing race. But I don't think what we saw in the Shootout will exactly tell us how everyone's Daytona 500 cars will perform.

Joe Menzer: There is no doubt about that, Raygs. I kind of got a kick out of some of the stuff I read about how Dale Earnhardt Jr. is back because he qualified for the front-row spot next to Mark Martin. Listen, that's great and all ... but neither one of them ran all that well in the Shootout. What it all means at this point, really, is nothing but guesswork.

David Caraviello: I will agree that coming out of the Shootout we really didn't know who the favorite was. The Hendrick cars are good, of course, but they always are. What worries me is that guys were going sideways right out of the gate, in the first Shootout practice, and that's only with half the cars that we'll see on the track in the 500.

Joe Menzer: I think what you can take from the Shootout more than anything is that some of the guys who seemed to have consistently strong cars -- guys like Kasey Kahne and Jamie McMurray come immediately to mind along with, of course, Kevin Harvick -- are likely to start out strong in their qualifiers and probably the race, as well. But nothing, and I mean nothing, is guaranteed.

Raygan Swan: I'm really looking forward to see how aggressive the drivers are going to be Sunday, and nervous at the same time. Kevin Harvick, with no practice time at all, gets in the car for the first time Saturday and said Ryan Newman hit him three good times and he was like, 'OK, lets go!' I'm glad you mentioned McMurray, he seems to be re-energized and he always does pretty well at Daytona. I think you'll see good things from him and Kasey Kahne on Sunday. I don't see Victory Lane, but strong finishes.

Watch the Duel

The two 150-mile qualifying races will determine the starting lineup for the Daytona 500.

• 2 p.m. ET Thursday on SPEED

David Caraviello: I'm still trying to figure out how much guys are exactly embracing this new era of bump-drafting freedom. Obviously, they're all doing it, at lot, and with varying degrees of success. But the guys who get spun out -- I think of Greg Biffle on Saturday night -- clearly aren't pleased. Kind of a damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don't situation. I think what they like most is the fact that NASCAR isn't going to come down on them for doing it, and not necessarily the practice itself.

Raygan Swan: David, whose fault was that, the Biffle crash? Old tires, bump-drafting, Jeff Gordon?

David Caraviello: Greg was magnanimous and blamed it on a tire he had going down. But clearly bump-drafting played a part, as it has in nearly every accident we've seen thus far. Going to make Sunday interesting.

Joe Menzer: Like many of the fans, I'm looking forward to this first 2010 points effort of the drivers "self-policing" themselves. So some guys are sideways out of the gate? So what? Drive those suckers and whomever tames them the best and stays out of the inevitable messes that will come will come out on top. Sounds like it will be entertaining to watch. I will predict that Jimmie Johnson finishes better than 13th, as he did in the Shootout.

David Caraviello: Way to go out on a limb there, Menzer. I'm going to tell you what -- I think Junior's got a real shot Sunday. The car looks solid. If he can avoid the kind of mistakes he made in last year's 500, which ended up ruining not only that race but his entire season, he's going to have a chance to win the thing.

Raygan Swan: My prediction: Tony Stewart finally gets it done after a decade of racing! Surprised? I didn't think so.

Joe Menzer: There she goes with that Indiana allegiance thing again. But I tell you what, I like Stewart's chances a whole lot better than Earnhardt's. And I have to admit that I actually have made Smoke my preseason pick to win the whole dang thing!

David Caraviello: Whole dang thing ... as in championship?

Joe Menzer: Yes. That is correct. I think Smoke might just win it all this time. Why not?

Raygan Swan: Who dat going to beat Tony Stewart? Nobody! Sorry, I thought it was funny.

David Caraviello: Joe, man, please don't hit the Coors Light so hard before Track Smack next time.

Joe Menzer: Tell me why, oh great prognosticator (meaning Caraviello), Tony Stewart can't win a championship this year? He's like Hendrick Light (and no, I haven't been drinking the other stuff yet ... too early in the day) so he's got the equipment he needs. He led in points most of last year before they tailed off at the end. Tell me why my prediction is so outlandish?

David Caraviello: Because Jimmie Johnson stands in his way. End of story. And, in an effort to head off any more outlandishness, end of this Track Smack segment.

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• Opening practices end, begin with crashes (Continued)