Streaks tell the story for fantasy picks in Fontana

This week, we move from one of the most difficult races to handicap, to one of the easiest.

For the past several years, NASCAR has challenged fantasy owners with a cruel irony. One of the most difficult races to handicap, the Daytona 500, is followed by one of the easiest at Auto Club Speedway. Even in the best of circumstances with relatively small accidents, a race at Daytona is nearly impossible to predict.

Drivers outside the top 15 can get propelled into the top five in the space of a green-white-checkered run. Dale Earnhardt Jr. was lined up 16th on Lap 201 just before the final restart and in the space of two green flag laps improved to second. The only consolation in such a wild swing is that we had him as a favorite in last week's preview.

On the other hand, the two-mile tracks of Auto Club and Michigan are among the most predictable. Streaks on the restrictor-plate superspeedways are almost non-existent, but on this two-miler they are commonplace. Last fall, six drivers entered the Pepsi 500 with consecutive top-10s and even though a few of them struggled in that event, fantasy owners still have a healthy pool of drivers from which to pick.

Johnson

The Favorites

For anyone worried that Jimmie Johnson might have lost some of his edge after winning a fourth consecutive Cup championship, fear not; he'll be back in top form this week. Five of his past six races at Auto Club have ended in results of first, second or third and the single time that he "struggled," was a ninth in this race last year. In that span, he has a remarkable average finish of 2.8 that includes three victories. That is also the first time he has ever finished worse than third in his six spring trips to this track since it started hosting two races per year, which makes him the closest thing you will find to a guarantee among the entire field.

Carl Edwards is another must have this week. In 22 combined starts at Auto Club and Michigan, he's failed to crack the top-10 only once at each track. In California that means he has 10 results of seventh or better in 11 starts and an average finish of 6.6. In his past three starts, he's narrowly missed the top five with a pair of sixths and one seventh, but consistency is worth its weight in gold.

When Matt Kenseth won this race last year, it was his eighth consecutive finish of seventh or better that included two other victories. After that, his season took a nosedive and when he returned, he was one of four drivers who saw active streaks come to an end. Considering how he was struggling elsewhere, however, his 13th-place finish in the Pepsi 500 was still an encouraging sign and it makes him a driver to watch closely in practice and qualifying this week.

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Dark Horses

Another driver who saw a long streak come to an end at Auto Club last fall was Kyle Busch. Like Kenseth, he watched an eight-race string unravel when he finished 24th. With only one victory at this track in 11 total starts and an average finish of 10.5, he is a little less of a sure thing. He is still one of the five strongest drivers this week in terms of his Fantasy Power Rankings average and anyone who has watched him race knows just how explosive he can be.

Jeff Gordon won the inaugural race at this track in 1997. He added a pole and a fourth-place finish the next year and then won again in 1999. His third Auto Club trophy was earned in 2004 and while he hasn't been back to Victory Lane since, he's finished second three times and third once in his past six attempts. Most importantly, two of those runner-up finishes came last year, which gives him a ton of momentum and a great set of notes from which to work. The only reason he's listed as a dark horse this week is because he seems to have lost his aggression during restarts and we just don't know when that final caution flag is going to wave.

If you're looking for a more traditional dark horse this week, Juan Montoya may fit the bill. It took him a while to get the hang of the two-mile tracks with a best finish of 20th in his first eight attempts at Auto Club and Michigan. Last year, however, he swept the top 20 with an 11th and third in California plus a sixth and 19th in Michigan. He's learned how to attack these wide open corners and the track is big enough to allow him to be aggressive without getting into trouble.

Martin

Underdogs

Last year Mark Martin got off to a slow start when he blew back-to-back engines at Auto Club and Las Vegas. He came back with a vengeance at Michigan in June by winning, but then struggled in that track's second race to finish outside the top 30. He was in top form once more at Auto Club in the fall with a fourth-place finish, but uncertainty makes this marquee driver a tough sell when he's going to be a much better value later in the season.

From the fall 2008 Michigan race through the 2009 spring event on that same track, Greg Biffle logged four consecutive top-fives on the two-milers. Unfortunately, his last two attempts on this track type were back-to-back 20th-place finishes. By itself, that might not be enough to make him a driver to avoid, but his seven races at Auto Club and Michigan prior to his top-five streak netted a best result of 15th and an average of 21.7.

Related:
• Fantasy Showdown: Fontana