Don't bank on it: Vegas not typical cookie-cutter track

It's not politically correct to lump all of the similarly configured, 1.5-mile tracks into a single category, but the proof in their similarity is found in how the cookies crumble.

Perhaps it is simply because teams place so much emphasis on the 1.5-mile unrestricted, intermediate speedways. After all, the doglegged and double-doglegged versions (Las Vegas, Atlanta, Texas, Charlotte, Kansas and Chicagoland) host nine of the 36 points-paying races, which work out to 25 percent of the schedule.

Fantasy Showdown

Our resident experts -- Marc Fein, Mike Bell and Bill Kimm -- roll the dice on Las Vegas with their Studs, Duds and Ones to Watch this weekend.

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For fantasy owners, calling the similarly configured, 1.5-mile tracks "cookie-cutters" is not derision as much as it is shorthand, because several drivers are consistently strong on all.

Determining who runs well on the cookie-cutters is one very important piece of the puzzle, but as is always the case, tiebreakers go to a driver's record at a specific venue. Every track is unique in terms of banking, transition into the corners and age of the track surface, but Las Vegas Motor Speedway may be the most unique of all since it added progressive banking that gets steeper as a driver gets closer to the outside retaining wall.

The Favorites

Three drivers have earned four top-10s in their past five Vegas attempts and they are your favorites this week.

Jeff Gordon has two stats in his favor entering the Shelby American. Not only has he earned four top-10s in the past five years at Vegas, all of those results are sixth or better. The only time he failed to finish that well was in 2008, when he was swept into an accident only a handful of laps from the end. He's also one of the defending winners at this track with a victory in '01. The second reason to recommend him, however, is his overall record on cookie-cutter tracks; last year, his single victory came at Texas before he swept the top 15 on this track type. In fact, seven of his nine races on the cookie-cutters were top-10s.

Related:
• Gordon In the Loop at Vegas

Kyle Busch was a little hit-and-miss on all of the 1.5-mile tracks last year, but in 2008 he finished 11th or better in eight of nine events. While he's stumbled on other courses that rarely has been the case on his home track of Vegas where he won after sitting on the pole last year. In six total starts on this track, he's finished worse than 11th only once and that came as the result of a Lap 11 accident in his inaugural attempt in '04.

The third favorite this week comes from Roush Fenway Racing. Ever since it won five of the first six events on this track with Mark Martin, Jeff Burton and Matt Kenseth behind the wheel, this has been a good course for the organization. Recently, Greg Biffle has been its strongest runner with four top-10s and a worst result of only 16th in his past five Vegas attempts. He hasn't won on this track yet, but he came close in 2008 with a third behind his teammate Carl Edwards and Hendrick's Dale Earnhardt Jr. This could be his year.

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Dark Horses

At first glance, it may seem strange to call Jimmie Johnson a dark horse. His victory last week at Auto Club Speedway proved that the team is still the one to beat on a weekly basis. Moreover, he earned three consecutive victories in Vegas from 2005 through '07. However, those are his only top-fives there and his past two efforts have been disappointing 20-something results. There will be plenty of opportunities to place him on your roster later in the year, so you may want to rest the No. 48 for a week. At the very least, make him a race-day decision based on how he runs in practice.

Burton is a modestly priced driver this week who could provide a lot of bang for his salary-cap buck. He finished second to then-teammate Martin in the inaugural race of 1998 and then won the next two events. After that, it took seven more years to get back into the top five, but he was never far away with six results ranging from sixth through 17th. His past two attempts on this track were a fifth in 2008 and a third last year, which couples with his strong run last week at Fontana to make him a driver to watch.

Underdogs

Carl Edwards is probably more than a little distracted these days since he and wife, Kate, are imminently expecting their first child. There really is no other way to explain his 13th-place finish at Auto Club Speedway -- a track on which he has been all but perfect. If the birth announcement comes early in the week, however, Edwards -- who won at Vegas in 2008 -- could be back in top form.

Last week's 500-mile affair was rough on engines and Kasey Kahne was not immune. This week, he only has to go 400 miles and that should make the difference. The driver of the No. 9 has been consistently inconsistent on this track, but if his pattern holds, he is due for another strong finish. His first effort in 2004 was rewarded with a second-place finish, followed by a 38th. In '06, he finished fourth, which was followed by a 35th. In '08, he nearly cracked the top five once more with a sixth and last year narrowly missed the top 10 in 11th. Another top-five seems to be in the cards.