Gordon looks like a good bet this Vegas weekend

Jeff Gordon has reeled off two consecutive bad finishes to start the 2010 season in 22nd place, a strange occurrence for the four-time series champion.

But there are three reasons for optimism.

One, a bad start has never turned into a bad finish. Gordon's worse points position after two races was 43rd in 1996. He finished the year as the championship runner-up. In 2000, he was also 22nd in the points after two events. He ended the year ninth in the points.

Two, Gordon's finishes are not exactly indicative of his in-race performance.

At Daytona, where he finished 26th, Gordon had a solid Driver Rating of 88.2, an average running position of 13.8, two laps led and four fastest laps run.

At Auto Club Speedway, Gordon finished 20th. His average running position that race, though, was 11.3. Additionally, he had a Driver Rating of 86.9, laps in the top 15 percentage of 73.6 percent and he had 20 fastest laps run.

So what gives?

The answer might lie in the Loop Data box score, under the column Closer Place. With 20 laps to go in the Daytona 500, Gordon was running sixth. He lost 20 positions -- or, one a lap -- in the final 10 percent of that race.

His Closer number improved dramatically at Auto Club Speedway, as he gained eight positions the final 25 laps. But he did drop off overall in the second half of the race. At the race's midpoint, Gordon ran in ninth-place. He finished 20th.

Combined, Gordon has lost 12 positions in the final 10 percent of races, which ranks fourth-worst.

Three, Gordon is strong at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

He has a win there (2001), five top-fives and six top-10s. Gordon also has a series-best average running position of 7.4, a Driver Rating of 111.5 (second-best), 103 fastest laps run (second) and a series-high 1,260 laps in the top 15 (92.9 percent) since the inception of Loop Data in 2005.

Gordon has finished in the top 10 in four of his past five races, and has scored a Driver Rating higher than 100.0 in each of the past five Las Vegas events.

Fantasy Fix

Pre-race Las Vegas Driver Rating has been spot-on when handicapping the event. Three of the past four race-winners had a pre-race Driver Rating in the top three. There has been only one statistical "upset" since the inception of Loop Data in 2005: Carl Edwards in 2008. Edwards came into that race ranked 16th in pre-race Driver Rating with a 78.3.