Chase pretenders and championship contenders

1. Kasey Kahne or Juan Montoya: Which driver currently 23rd or worse in Sprint Cup points is in greater danger of missing the Chase?

David Caraviello: I know that Kahne was the popular pick to fall out of the Chase this year because of all the upheaval at Richard Petty Motorsports over the winter. But I'm a little worried about Montoya right now. That hole he's in is getting deep, and he's never really been in a situation like this in NASCAR, where he's been expected to perform, and his back is up against the wall.

Joe Menzer: While they're both obviously in trouble, I think Kasey may have the tougher time getting back. Juan has yet to win a stock-car race on an oval and it's getting old saying it's only a matter of time, but the Earnhardt Ganassi Racing cars are fast. I think he'll get it together quicker than Kasey, whose good team is mired in a weird situation -- new to Fords, still feeling their way, etc. Then again, Kasey's teammates aren't running into him -- yet.

Duane Cross: Hands down, it's Kasey Kahne. His focus is going to be scattered, from trying to get maximum points each weekend, to the situation with his contract, which is up after this season. JPM has been through the wringer before, and he's the one more likely to bounce back in a big way.

Joe Menzer: That's a good point, Duane. Part of Kahne's unusual, weird situation is that his future is uncertain. And there is a lot of pressure on all the guys surrounding him on that No. 9 team -- because everyone knows he's gone if the team as a whole doesn't perform extremely well.

Hobbled Hamlin

Denny Hamlin has lead-lap finishes of 17th and 19th this season and finished 29th, two laps down, at Fontana.

• Season not lost
• ACL won't face No. 11
• Hurting Hamlin

David Caraviello: Not to kiss up to the boss, but he may be right about JPM, too. Even this kind of wringer has to be easier on Montoya than the junk he dealt with at the tail end of his Formula 1 career. And he does have the benefit of that Earnhardt-Childress engine consortium, which is kicking some serious butt right now. Of course, a lot of good that did him at California. JP may indeed, though, have more going in his favor than Kahne does right now.

Joe Menzer: Wow. That was easy. Usually it takes much longer into a Track Smack session before Caraviello begins seeing things my way.

Duane Cross: Interesting the cutoff was 23rd, because the guy in 22nd place needs to step up, too. Denny Hamlin has lead-lap finishes of 17th and 19th. He was 29th, two laps down, at Fontana. Those are not good numbers for the guy who was supposed to knock off you-know-who from the top of the mountain.

Joe Menzer: While we're on the subject of Hamlin, you have to wonder if the knee is not going to be an issue over the long grind of a season. I know he says no, but you have to wonder. Plus it seems to be some kind of curse in recent years to be the "odds-on favorite" to knock off the defending champ. Just ask Carl Edwards.

David Caraviello: Joe, we do know that the early part of the season is going to be the hardest on the torn ACL in Denny's knee. He's told us all along that it would take a little while for the pain and swelling to subside. That's not an excuse, of course, but you can't ignore it.

Duane Cross: Bristol and Martinsville -- the beating and banging -- are not going to be good for that ol' hinge, either. Denny is in the same boat with JPM -- he can bounce back, but it needs to start happening soon.

Joe Menzer: Well, if the knee is bothering Denny now, it's probably not going to bother him less as the season progresses, is it? My thinking and limited medical training tells me it's more likely to bother him more. Please enlighten us, Dr. Caraviello!

Duane Cross: That's what the ladies called him in college!

David Caraviello: I'm going by what Denny has told us -- that it will be sore a few weeks into the season because of the injury, but once the swelling goes down, he will be better able to manage it. That's why he was so glad that the two road course events, where he'll need to work both legs changing gears, were later in the season.

Joe Menzer: Well, having covered a fair amount of others sports where guys have dealt with this or tried to, I believe he might be a little naive about it. That thing is going to be sore until he gets it surgically fixed and then begins the long rehab, which means he could be adversely affected well into next year. Then again, he's not tackling people or dunking a basketball for a living, so he could manage.

Duane Cross: Back to Kahne for a moment. If his name was Earnhardt, he'd be getting hammered for the results. As it is, Kahne -- and a lot of other drivers -- aren't under that week-in, week-out scrutiny so that shouldn't be a factor in his struggles. In fact, that should make it easier for Kahne, JPM, Hamlin to focus on-track and get back into the mix. There's a long way to go before we roll into Richmond in September but three races in and some guys are going to reach for the panic button before too much longer.

David Caraviello: If anything, RPM is probably feeling more pressure right now than Kahne is. After all, Kahne has basically told them -- your performance will dictate whether I stay or go. Right now, that performance isn't much. If that doesn't reverse itself, RPM is going to lose its star driver to another organization.

Duane Cross: No doubt RPM will be watching Bill Elliott closely this weekend; the No. 21 is running the new FR9 engine at Atlanta.

David Caraviello: Hope it works out better than Menzer's orthopedics degree.

Joe Menzer: Well, I do have to admit that I now wear orthopedic inserts in my shoes. I wonder if Bill Elliott does, too? (Continued)