Chase pretenders and championship contenders

1. Kasey Kahne or Juan Montoya: Which driver currently 23rd or worse in Sprint Cup points is in greater danger of missing the Chase?

David Caraviello: I know that Kahne was the popular pick to fall out of the Chase this year because of all the upheaval at Richard Petty Motorsports over the winter. But I'm a little worried about Montoya right now. That hole he's in is getting deep, and he's never really been in a situation like this in NASCAR, where he's been expected to perform, and his back is up against the wall.

Joe Menzer: While they're both obviously in trouble, I think Kasey may have the tougher time getting back. Juan has yet to win a stock-car race on an oval and it's getting old saying it's only a matter of time, but the Earnhardt Ganassi Racing cars are fast. I think he'll get it together quicker than Kasey, whose good team is mired in a weird situation -- new to Fords, still feeling their way, etc. Then again, Kasey's teammates aren't running into him -- yet.

Duane Cross: Hands down, it's Kasey Kahne. His focus is going to be scattered, from trying to get maximum points each weekend, to the situation with his contract, which is up after this season. JPM has been through the wringer before, and he's the one more likely to bounce back in a big way.

Joe Menzer: That's a good point, Duane. Part of Kahne's unusual, weird situation is that his future is uncertain. And there is a lot of pressure on all the guys surrounding him on that No. 9 team -- because everyone knows he's gone if the team as a whole doesn't perform extremely well.

Hobbled Hamlin

Denny Hamlin has lead-lap finishes of 17th and 19th this season and finished 29th, two laps down, at Fontana.

• Season not lost
• ACL won't face No. 11
• Hurting Hamlin

David Caraviello: Not to kiss up to the boss, but he may be right about JPM, too. Even this kind of wringer has to be easier on Montoya than the junk he dealt with at the tail end of his Formula 1 career. And he does have the benefit of that Earnhardt-Childress engine consortium, which is kicking some serious butt right now. Of course, a lot of good that did him at California. JP may indeed, though, have more going in his favor than Kahne does right now.

Joe Menzer: Wow. That was easy. Usually it takes much longer into a Track Smack session before Caraviello begins seeing things my way.

Duane Cross: Interesting the cutoff was 23rd, because the guy in 22nd place needs to step up, too. Denny Hamlin has lead-lap finishes of 17th and 19th. He was 29th, two laps down, at Fontana. Those are not good numbers for the guy who was supposed to knock off you-know-who from the top of the mountain.

Joe Menzer: While we're on the subject of Hamlin, you have to wonder if the knee is not going to be an issue over the long grind of a season. I know he says no, but you have to wonder. Plus it seems to be some kind of curse in recent years to be the "odds-on favorite" to knock off the defending champ. Just ask Carl Edwards.

David Caraviello: Joe, we do know that the early part of the season is going to be the hardest on the torn ACL in Denny's knee. He's told us all along that it would take a little while for the pain and swelling to subside. That's not an excuse, of course, but you can't ignore it.

Duane Cross: Bristol and Martinsville -- the beating and banging -- are not going to be good for that ol' hinge, either. Denny is in the same boat with JPM -- he can bounce back, but it needs to start happening soon.

Joe Menzer: Well, if the knee is bothering Denny now, it's probably not going to bother him less as the season progresses, is it? My thinking and limited medical training tells me it's more likely to bother him more. Please enlighten us, Dr. Caraviello!

Duane Cross: That's what the ladies called him in college!

David Caraviello: I'm going by what Denny has told us -- that it will be sore a few weeks into the season because of the injury, but once the swelling goes down, he will be better able to manage it. That's why he was so glad that the two road course events, where he'll need to work both legs changing gears, were later in the season.

Joe Menzer: Well, having covered a fair amount of others sports where guys have dealt with this or tried to, I believe he might be a little naive about it. That thing is going to be sore until he gets it surgically fixed and then begins the long rehab, which means he could be adversely affected well into next year. Then again, he's not tackling people or dunking a basketball for a living, so he could manage.

Duane Cross: Back to Kahne for a moment. If his name was Earnhardt, he'd be getting hammered for the results. As it is, Kahne -- and a lot of other drivers -- aren't under that week-in, week-out scrutiny so that shouldn't be a factor in his struggles. In fact, that should make it easier for Kahne, JPM, Hamlin to focus on-track and get back into the mix. There's a long way to go before we roll into Richmond in September but three races in and some guys are going to reach for the panic button before too much longer.

David Caraviello: If anything, RPM is probably feeling more pressure right now than Kahne is. After all, Kahne has basically told them -- your performance will dictate whether I stay or go. Right now, that performance isn't much. If that doesn't reverse itself, RPM is going to lose its star driver to another organization.

Duane Cross: No doubt RPM will be watching Bill Elliott closely this weekend; the No. 21 is running the new FR9 engine at Atlanta.

David Caraviello: Hope it works out better than Menzer's orthopedics degree.

Joe Menzer: Well, I do have to admit that I now wear orthopedic inserts in my shoes. I wonder if Bill Elliott does, too?

2. Joey Logano or David Reutimann: Which driver currently in Chase position is the safer bet to still be there come September 12?

Joe Menzer: Logano, no question in my mind. I really like Reutimann and he's been fairly consistent over the last two years -- but Logano is, in my opinion, starting to carry over that tremendous talent that he has displayed in the Nationwide cars to Sprint Cup. Only a matter of time until he rips off multiple wins.

David Caraviello: I like Reutimann, I really do. The guy is underrated as a driver, and Michael Waltrip Racing has made some real strides. But I've got to go with Logano here, because Joe Gibbs Racing knows how to put drivers into the Chase. Crew chief Greg Zipadelli knows how to build cars that can vie for a title. They've been there before -- Waltrip and Reutimann haven't.

Side-by-side

After Las Vegas

Rank	Driver	Pts	Behind	T5	T10
8	Logano	413	-93	1	2
9	Reutimann	397	-109	1	1

Complete Standings

Duane Cross: Painful to choose between these two; both would be interesting to watch down the stretch in a championship run. At the end of the day, I'm going to roll the dice with Logano. I believe he has a better infrastructure around him at this time. The Gibbs folks have been down the championship road before. That'll pay dividends for Logano.

David Caraviello: Man, Ty Norris is really going to blast us in his blog next week!

Joe Menzer: It was only a matter of Tyme.

Duane Cross: I had Ty in the back of my mind while typing that. Nothing personal, buddy -- but MWR needs to continue walking before it sprints into Chase contention. Maybe 2011 ...

David Caraviello: That's not to say Reutimann can't do it. Those Waltrip cars are much better than they've been, and the MWR driving stable is really good, and clearly David knows how to get up front. But if we're talking 26-race consistency ... got to go with the Gibbs guys. Joey hasn't done it yet, but everyone else there has, and that has to count for a lot.

Duane Cross: JGR is going through some growing pains -- Hamlin, literally -- but once Kyle Busch, Hamlin and Logano really get comfortable, that team could be a powerhouse for many years to come.

Joe Menzer: Yes, look, they are doing the right things and making strides in the right direction at MWR. But Joey Logano is ready to complete that last step to stardom, and he has the championship-caliber infrastructure already in place around him and behind him, as Duane said. I will say that Reutimann, who recently celebrated his 40th birthday, did a fine job monitoring our very own Dave Rodman last weekend in Las Vegas -- when the Road Warrior attempted to eat a six-pound burrito!

David Caraviello: Hopefully that wasn't as painful to eat as it was painful to watch. I got heartburn just looking at it.

Joe Menzer: I liked how Rodman carefully placed three TUMS tablets on top of the burrito even BEFORE tackling it!

Duane Cross: Among the big-swingin's, JGR is poised for sustained championship runs. Every other team has drivers who are closer to the end than the beginning of their careers, or have free agents who may fly the coop with little in the development pipeline to fill the void.

David Caraviello: And Logano has clearly made huge strides over last season. As Zipadelli will tell you, Joey's head was spinning so much last year it was difficult to focus on details and provide the correct kind of information needed to make the cars better. Today, he's a able to do that, and it's showing in the performance on the race track.

Joe Menzer: Could be that at MWR they end up with two Truex brothers eventually behind the wheel, although that's assuming a whole lot when it comes to the development of Ryan. Reutimann, though, is undeniably 40 and has exactly the same number of career Cup victories -- one -- as the 19-year-old Logano. Kind of puts it in perspective.

David Caraviello: I will say this: Reutimann has a better chance of making the Chase than I EVER have of getting close to that burrito. Although Joe, I was thinking you might have what it takes to handle that sucker.

Joe Menzer: BURP!!! ... Uh, sorry. Maybe in my younger days. Remember, I'm even older than Reutimann now.

Duane Cross: Joe and I are going to Vegas in December for the banquet. I'm throwing down the gauntlet now! Strap on your bib, Jethro!

3. Timothy Peters or Ron Hornaday: Which Truck Series driver is the bigger championship threat?

Duane Cross: I'm reminded of when the Reds and Yankees played in the 1976 World Series. Sparky Anderson chided the media for trying to make comparisons between Johnny Bench and Thurman Munson. To paraphrase, don't compare anyone to Ron Hornaday; it's just not fair.

Joe Menzer: It's awful hard to bet against Ron Hornaday in the Trucks. But I will say this: after getting to talk with Timothy Peters at length for a 1-on-1 following his big win in the season-opening race at Daytona, I'm very impressed with that guy. He's humble yet confident -- and obviously very talented. He has what it takes to become a future champion.

David Caraviello: OK, it's got to be Hornaday. Peters is a really promising driver who won the opener at Daytona and has a bright future ahead of him, but Hornaday is a multiple-time championship winner who is really good at Atlanta, where the series competes this weekend. I wouldn't be surprised to see those guys flipped in the standings before long. And Duane, nobody's comparing Peters to Hornaday. But the Trucks have a shorter schedule, and it's tougher to make up ground, and Ron had a tough start at Daytona. We're wondering who will finish the season ahead of the other -- not whether Peters will become the next Hornaday.

Joe Menzer: Dude, it's a shorter season. But it's not eight races, or 10. It's 25. Hornaday has plenty of time to make up what was lost at Daytona. Plus you have to remember that it's really no different in the Truck Series than in Sprint Cup -- when it comes to Daytona, it's its own animal. Oftentimes what happens there in the season opener has no real bearing on what happens the rest of the season.

Duane Cross: I wasn't comparing them. I am saying that Peters' chances of unseating Hornaday are about the same as what Munson's were of coming out on top of a head-to-head with Bench [who, by the way, was the Series MVP that year]. Hornaday will dictate this championship battle -- no one else. Peters' day may come -- but until Hornaday and Kevin Harvick Inc. decided it's time to step aside, Ron is the one to beat. Period.

David Caraviello: Still, let's give Timothy Peters some credit here. It's not like the guy came out of nowhere -- he's made a handful of Nationwide starts, and won a Truck race as recently as last season. He followed Dale Earnhardt and Darrell Waltrip growing up. He keeps it up, he could become the first Southerner to win the Trucks championship since Bobby Hamilton. And yes, I have been reading my weekly NASCAR series notes.

Duane Cross: I'll just say this: I'd like to be a fly on the wall at Homestead when the West Coast Posse throws its celebration party in November.

Joe Menzer: I love the Johnny B reference. But at this point in his career, I'm not even sure yet if Timothy Peters is the equal of Thurman Munson. Peters is still a promising work in progress. Hornaday is the only four-time champion in series history. There is a big gap there.

David Caraviello: I will say this, I like the direction the Truck Series is heading right now. There are a lot of promising young drivers in it, reminding me of the circuit that Kurt Busch, Harvick, and Greg Biffle all came up in. It's become a little less of a senior tour, as some have called it, and more of a developmental circuit again.

Duane Cross: I agree, David; it's not the senior tour. There's going to be some great racing in the Truck Series this year. But KHI is the cream of the crop. Hornaday and KHI are built for hoisting trophies. Peters is a good story -- and it's never a bad thing to get on the bandwagon early -- but David, his day in the sun is still well on the horizon.

Joe Menzer: It's sort of like when we occasionally play pickup basketball on the road. I'm like Hornaday -- old but deadly efficient with the 3-point shot. Dr. Caraviello is a promising work in progress. Maybe he'll get there someday. Of course, I played in a charity event over the weekend and was 0 for about 8 from 3-point land!

David Caraviello: Joe, you probably shouldn't use "old" and "deadly" in the same sentence.

Duane Cross: You realize the No. 17 team will print this and hang it on the shop wall ... and, of course, hammer us over the head with it if Peters wins the title.

David Caraviello: Hey, I'm trying to give the kid some credit. It's you and Burrito Man who keep bashing him!

Joe Menzer: I will be the first to congratulate them if that happens. As I said earlier, it couldn't happen to a nicer guy. And now, I think I will go practice my 3-point touch.

David Caraviello: Joe, just raise the basket to 10 feet first.

Duane Cross: Yeah -- Nerf hoops doesn't count!