Texas a good place to take a chance, cross fingers

During the past several years, NASCAR has narrowed the playing field with ever stricter rules' packages. With technical domination minimized in the equation, the pressure is on drivers to turn perfect laps and communicate exactly what they need to make their cars handle.

Still, one driver and crew chief has found the optimum combination of skill and chemistry, which makes Jimmie Johnson and Chad Knaus seemingly unstoppable. NASCAR continues to throw curveballs at the competitors and while Johnson persists in making contact nearly every time he steps to the plate, a lot of fantasy owners have not been as lucky.

Texas

Marc Fein, Marty Snider and Mike Bell debate fantasy studs, duds and sleepers.

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First, NASCAR implemented the free pass and then a wave around rule with the consequence being that more cars than normal are on the lead lap at the end of a race. Multiple attempts at a green-white-checkered finish and the "have at it boys" policy allowing drivers to self-police on the track is making NASCAR more unpredictable than ever.

So far this season, four of seven races have ended in a green-white-checkered manner and if the trend continues, the series will shatter its old record of 10 such finishes in 2005. Notably, Jeff Gordon won the first two extra-lap races that season at Daytona and Talladega. This year, he's come up on the losing end twice when leading the field to green for the final time.

Last week, Ryan Newman won his first race since the 2008 Daytona 500 and his first on a short flat track since '05 at New Hampshire. His victory at Phoenix might not have been a shocker, but it certainly was a surprise.

Races on the cookie-cutters, the unrestricted, intermediate speedways, once were predictable. The powerhouse teams of Hendrick Motorsports and Roush Fenway Racing dominated those tracks with horsepower and handling, but there is either a major changing of the guard under way or NASCAR's new rules are creating a free-for-all in the standings.

In the most recent similarly configured, 1.5-mile course race at Atlanta, Paul Menard, A.J. Allmendinger and Scott Speed earned rare top-10s. Marcos Ambrose finished in the top 15 there and at Las Vegas, another doglegged 1.5-miler, making him one of the best values in the game each time. They replaced some regular standouts on this track type such as Johnson and Gordon, who finished outside the top 10 in the most recent cookie-cutter outing.

This week at Texas Motor Speedway, you may want to employ a strategy that is often reserved for the restrictor-plate superspeedways, and that is to spread your money around evenly on traditional favorites and dark horses alike -- and then cross your fingers and hope that you found the winning combination. (Continued)