Busch, Kahne lead the way as near-locks at Charlotte

There is an adage in business that states "success predicts success." During the past several weeks, this truism has applied to racing as well, on tracks like Dover and Darlington, that featured drivers with long streaks of top-fives and top-10s. Unfortunately, the formula for success on the similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks is not quite as simple.

Charlotte

This week's fantasy studs, duds and sleepers.

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With more than one-third of NASCAR's races held on "cookie-cutter" 1.5- and 2-mile unrestricted, intermediate speedways, teams spend the majority of their energy trying to find the perfect setup for this track type and that insures parity is at its peak on race courses like Charlotte Motor Speedway. To contend for the championship, organizations have to be strong on short tracks, road courses, and flat tracks, as well as lucky and good on the restrictor-plate superspeedways, but up-and-coming teams can put their energy where it is best served.

For that reason, one dark horse or another always seems to run well on the "cookie-cutter" courses. Instead of being one of the most predictable tracks types with reams of data at your disposal, finding the elusive Cinderella to fit your glass slipper is tricky. To further complicate the matter at Charlotte, several races in the past three years have seen their finishing results altered by rain or fuel mileage gambits, which caused dominant drivers to slip outside of the top 10.

Even with last year's Coca-Cola 600 being shortened by rain just before a green flag cycle of pit stops were about to take place, four drivers managed to sweep the top 10. In 2008, five drivers swept the top-10, but that was the greatest number of repeat top-10 finishers during a season since 2004, and it is a large part of the reason why only two drivers enter the weekend with more than two consecutive results of 10th or better. (Continued)