Head2Head: Who will be a surprise Chase entry?

It's hard to imagine that the winner of the Daytona 500 would be considered a "surprise entrant" into the Chase, but that's exactly what Jamie McMurray will be.

It probably has something to do with McMurray's lack of consistency in the early part of the year. Since winning at Daytona in February, McMurray has four top-five finishes, and four finishes of 30th or worse.

But here's the thing: McMurray has three second-place finishes in his past five Cup starts. That's impressive on its own, but nearly as important are the types of tracks McMurray has been successful on during the run.

He was second at Talladega, a restrictor-plate track; Darlington, a wild-card track with an odd shape; and Charlotte, a 1.5-mile, cookie-cutter track -- the type that dominates the Chase.

What's more, he was eighth at Bristol back in March, which has him covered on the short tracks.

Even more importantly than that, you can see McMurray becoming a better driver each week.

It may have something to do with McMurray being reunited with Chip Ganassi, who McMurray nearly made the Chase with a couple of times earlier in the decade, or his obvious chemistry with crew chief Kevin Manion, or his success this year in the Nationwide Series, where he has four top-10 finishes in six starts for JR Motorsports.

For whatever reason, McMurray looks like a guy racing to win, and not a guy racing to not lose, as he appeared so often to be during his four-year stint with Roush Fenway Racing.

There are quite a few drivers showing they are Chase-worthy that weren't in the conversation when the season started in February: Jamie McMurray, Joey Logano, David Reutimann. But for me, the surprise entry in the Chase will be Martin Truex Jr.

And really, it shouldn't be a surprise.

Truex has been in the Chase before -- in 2007 -- and he has the talent, it's just been hidden. He ran for a sub-par DEI team when the other rookies that started around the same time -- Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Denny Hamlin and Clint Bowyer -- all signed on with the best teams in the garage and rocketed to superstardom.

Well now Truex is with Michael Waltrip Racing, a team on the upswing and on the verge of becoming a weekly threat for race wins.

Truex, just 14 points out of 12th, has a top-five and four top-10s this season, which isn't mind-blowing, but on pace with his 2007 stats. More importantly, Truex isn't watching the end of the race from his hauler. Aside from an engine problem at Fontana, Truex has been in the thick of things at the end with 11 lead-lap finishes in 13 starts. McMurray (7), Logano (8) and Reutimann (8) aren't even close.

This could really be a special season for the two-time Nationwide champion. Truex's win in the Sprint Showdown wasn't a fluke. What he did in that 40-lap sprint is indicative of what he can do on a weekly basis. With the emergence of MWR, don't be surprised to see Truex catapult into the top 12.

He won't win the title, but he will be invited to the banquet.