Will Reutimann's win propel him into the Chase?

One of the prevailing themes I've heard over and over again since David Reutimann's victory Saturday night in Chicago is that fans were happy to see someone a little bit unexpected in Victory Lane.

Reutimann's win may have been a surprise, but his impending appearance in the Chase shouldn't be.

Anyone who has been paying attention for a while knows that Reutimann, apart from "loving love," has been knocking on the door of victory for the past few months. Reutimann's last finish outside the top 20 was at Texas -- in April.

Since then -- nine top-15s, two top-fives and the much-ballyhooed win.

That, my good friends, is consistency. Consistency that points leader Kevin Harvick had -- until he finished 34th at Chicagoland. Jeff Gordon has two finishes outside the top 20 since Reutimann's stretch of success. Jimmie Johnson? Five finishes outside the top 20 in the same span. Meanwhile, the ol' double zero has -- zero.

What about those around Reutimann's 15th-place spot in the points? Fourteenth-place Mark Martin hasn't had a top-10 since the Coke 600. Reutimann has two, including that win.

Junior in 13th? Flashes of brilliance sure, but not consistent. Greg Biffle in 11th? Riding a roller coaster. Two top-10s and three finishes out of the top 25 since late May.

Plus Reuty loves love. That should be worth a spot in the Chase all by itself.

It was great seeing David Reutimann in Victory Lane on Saturday night at Chicagoland, capping an amazing two-month stretch. But while hopes are high at Michael Waltrip Racing, unfortunately Reutimann is going to come up short again in making the Chase.

Yes, Reutimann has gone from 27th to 15th in nine races -- a huge climb. But he remains 96 points out of 12th, with some pretty good drivers ahead of him.

Carl Edwards and Greg Biffle are 10th and 11th and are showing signs of improvement -- they will do just enough to make the Chase. Clint Bowyer in 12th is the most vulnerable to fall, but I don't think he will. And if he does, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Mark Martin are right there to grab the spot.

And then there is history.

Since the Chase expanded to 12 drivers in 2007, 11 of the 12 drivers were set after 19 races in '07 and '08 and 10 of the 12 were set in '09. Only one of those four overcame a deficit as large as Reutimann's -- Brian Vickers last season (146 points).

Making up 100 points this late in the season is just too difficult. Reutimann can't afford a slip-up. He has to post top-15s for the next seven weeks -- which he is very capable of -- but he needs three of those five other drivers to struggle coming down the stretch. And of those five -- Edwards, Biffle, Bowyer, Earnhardt and Martin -- I just don't see it happening.

The Franchise will make the Chase, just not in 2010.