Follow similar lineup paths for Pocono success

Fantasy owners will experience a strong sense of déjà vu this weekend.

If it seems like you just set your roster for Pocono Raceway, well, that is because you did since NASCAR last visited this track seven races ago. And most of the favorites for that race in June will use similar setups to run strong in the return.

This is also the second consecutive race on a 2.5-mile flat track, and while Indianapolis Motor Speedway's rectangular shape is significantly different than the Pocono triangle, many of the same skills are required to go fast on both. Drivers who ran well last week also should dominate the front of the pack this week. Of course, there always is the uncertain intangible of luck.

Pocono

This week's fantasy studs, duds and sleepers.

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In fact, if you were tempted to stand pat and spend a few weeks without significant roster changes, this is a good part of the schedule to employ that strategy. Next week NASCAR visits the road course of Watkins Glen International, which also requires drivers to slow down before entry into the corner and accelerate at the apex. The addition of road ringers to the twisty track in New York will keep you from completely ignoring the lineup, but most of the Cup regulars who run strong on flat tracks also will be the drivers to beat on the road course.

Last week's favorites Jimmie Johnson, Juan Montoya and Jeff Gordon all finished badly, which underscores just how difficult it can be to handicap a NASCAR race. Montoya and Johnson both had dominant cars at various points during the race and Gordon was hovering around the top-10 mark before disaster did in each of them. Montoya's exit was the most dramatic when he got loose out of Turn 4, pounded the wall, and then careened into the path of Dale Earnhardt Jr. That actually allowed Johnson and Gordon to regain the lead lap and pick up a spot or two but overall, it was a dismal day for drivers who were expected to do well.

There is a reason why you should look at more than raw finishes before selecting your roster, however, and Indy was a prime example. If they can shake off last week's bad experiences, each of these three drivers could contend for the victory this week. Unfortunately for Johnson, that was his third consecutive result outside the top 20 and streaks of bad luck can be momentum-killers.

The Favorites

As predicted, last week was not a great weekend for Denny Hamlin. For some reason, Indy is the only flat track on which he struggles and a 15th-place finish was not bad in light of his overall record there. He's been nearly perfect at Pocono, however, ever since he swept its Victory Lane in his rookie season. He has only a couple of bad results sprinkled into the mix -- August 2008 and June '09 -- but back-to-back victories in the most recent Pocono races more than make up for those mechanical shortfalls.

One should know better than to discount Tony Stewart's odds during the summer. True, he hasn't been blistering the track with loads of laps spent in the top 10 during the running of a race, but fantasy games only pay points for finishes. Since Dover, he's logged seven top-10s and eight top-15s in nine starts, which includes top-fives in the past two flat-track races at New Hampshire and Indy. He might give you a little gray hair along the way, but Smoke will rise at the end.

Kevin Harvick finished fourth in the first Pocono race this season and that gave him a ton of momentum. In the past seven races, he's won once at Daytona and scored five top-fives to earn maximum points. It's not as if he was struggling before then for that matter. In the seven races preceding that streak, he scored a worst finish of only 13th. Like Stewart, he also enters the weekend with top-fives in his past two flat-track races and there is every indication he will add another at Pocono.

Dark Horses

This week we will call Montoya a dark horse because we are not certain if he can shake off last week's misfortune. He's also been uneven at Pocono with his first four results landing outside the top 15. His past three, however, make him well worth starting with a pair of eighth-place finishes. Montoya has a tendency to become his own worst enemy when he tries to make up for bad track position with aggressive driving, but if the team makes the right calls in the pits, he could be hard to beat.

Sam Hornish Jr. is a more traditional dark horse. He didn't get a chance to show his mettle after getting damaged in a first-lap melee at Indy, but that will make this team redouble its efforts at Pocono. Last year, he swept the top 10 in both races there and narrowly missed adding a third such finish with an 11th earlier this year. Dollar for dollar, he might be the best value in the game this week.

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Underdogs

Joey Logano continues to trend in the right direction, both in regard to his career and specifically at Pocono. Last week, he could have been a footnote in the Brickyard 400 after changing an engine and dropping to the back of the grid to start the race. He wasn't all that impressive in practice or qualification either, but steadily worked his way to the front of the field and finished inside the top 10 to earn his fourth such finish in his past eight oval races. He has yet to finish that well at Pocono, but after crossing under the checkers in the 20s in both events last year, he came close in June with a 13th.

Jamie McMurray is developing a reputation for stepping up for the big races after winning this year's Daytona 500, finishing second in the Coke 600, and winning last week's Brickyard 400. It remains to be seen if he can level out his results and also run strong on smaller stages, but considering that he earned a fifth at Chicagoland two weeks ago, he's well worth the risk. So far it's been difficult for McMurray to string together good results. This week, he enters Pocono with consecutive top-fives for the first time all season.