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Follow Stewart on his traditional summer roll

By Dan Beaver, Special to NASCAR.COM
August 4, 2010
11:20 AM EDT
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The two races at Pocono Raceway are the closest on the schedule of any track that hosts more than one event, and many of the same drivers who ran strong in the first weekend were contenders this time around as well. Closer still than those contests, however, are NASCAR's two road-course races at Infineon Raceway and Watkins Glen International.

Six races were run between Pocono's two shows, but fantasy owners were faced with the conundrum of who to start on the twisty confines of Infineon only five weeks ago, and since then there have been races held at a restrictor-plate superspeedway, cookie-cutters and two flat tracks. Several of the same drivers who were strong on the flat tracks will be this week's top contenders as well, and that gives both the players and drivers a chance to build some momentum after back-to-back races at Indianapolis Motor Speedway and Pocono.

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Watkins Glen

This week's fantasy studs, duds and sleepers.

Of course, in NASCAR nothing is ever that simple, and with the running order of last week's Pennsylvania 500 shuffled a bit by late-race rain and restarts, there were several surprises at the front of the field. Last week's favorites Denny Hamlin, Tony Stewart, and Kevin Harvick overcame those challenges and finished in the top five. Better still, the driver we described as the best value in the game, nearly stole victory with some late-race strategy before Sam Hornish Jr. settled for 11th.

Determining who will run strong on road courses will be just as predictable as it was last week on the flat track, but that doesn't necessarily mean that some strange occurrence in the closing laps won't intervene this week as well, and with the added problem of how difficult passing can be on road courses, that could shuffle the order even more.

The Favorites

Stewart is on his traditional summer roll. He's quietly amassed five top-fives and seven top-10s in the past eight weeks without scoring a single victory. That could change this week on a track where he's been unstoppable in the past. All five of Stewart's trophies from this track have come in the past eight years and when he's missed Victory Lane, it hasn't been by much, with two second-place results in that same span. If he had been able to pick his way through traffic a little faster last week in Pocono, he might have ran Greg Biffle down for the win, but he shouldn't have that same problem at The Glen because he's more likely to be the one they are chasing.

No one knew precisely what the problem was going to be last week at Pocono, but with the luck Juan Montoya has been experiencing in recent races, you knew it was going to be something. He raced with the leaders for much of the afternoon before rain interrupted the event near its end and he was not able to make up the distance. Instead of the back-to-back top-fives he should have recorded in the Brickyard 400 and Pennsylvania 500, he's still searching for his first top-10 since finishing 10th at Infineon. It's a fair bet that will happen since he's only failed to finish that well in one of his seven previous twisty track attempts. His single poor finish came at The Glen when he and Kevin Harvick tangled in Turn 1 midway through his rookie campaign, but he's been nearly perfect at this track since with a third-place finish in 2008 and a second last year. He only needs to improve by one spot to take the trophy home this week.

Marcos Ambrose hasn't been the pleasant surprise we expected this year and that feeling apparently was shared by both the driver and team. Prior to Pocono, he announced he would be leaving the No. 47 at the end of the season and his plans for next year are uncertain. That makes him a risky proposition on the ovals, but the road race at The Glen may well be his last, best chance to shine. There is no doubt that he can wheel a car at NASCAR's top level, especially on this track type, and while his imminent departure will prove to be a distraction elsewhere, it's not going to slow him down at The Glen. He is one of a half -dozen drivers capable of winning if he has the track position late in the race.

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Dark Horses

With 22nd- and 39th-place finishes in his past two Infineon races, Kyle Busch is not going to be on many radar screens this week, and that could make him a great differentiator for your lineup. While he's stumbled a time or two in California, he's been great in New York with a win in 2008 and four consecutive top-10s there. His victory was no fluke either; he dominated that afternoon after starting in the front, so if he gets a good qualification effort in the books this week, snap him up and then sit back and grin if your competitors don't take him.

Carl Edwards would seem to be another unlikely road racer and that opinion was reinforced by a 39th-place finish at Infineon only a few weeks ago. He was never in contention to win on the highly technical turns on that track, but on the fast open course at the Glen, he's been incredibly strong in recent years. With only one awkward race to start his career in 2005, he's swept the top 10 since and two of his last four efforts have ended in top-fives. Along with Busch, he's going to catch your competition unaware and that makes him a greater value than he would otherwise be.

Road Ringers

This week, the most successful road ringers will probably come with a connection to the No. 26 team. Boris Said is part owner of that car and his road course experience gave them the opportunity to finish strong at Infineon. Miscommunication between the driver and crew chief Frank Stoddard surrounding a pit stop put them a little behind, but they ran well nonetheless and were a factor then and also would have been a factor this week if they were still paired. When the opportunity came to race in the No. 83, however, it was too good to pass up. We were willing to go out on a limb and call Mattias Ekstrom a dark horse when he was in that car, so placing Said on the roster is a far easier decision. No other road ringer has more experience in these heavy stock cars and with solid equipment under him, a top-10 finish is in the cards if he plays his hand correctly.

The other side of that equation is that Said would not have stepped out of his car without an equally strong racer to take his place and that is where Patrick Carpentier comes into the picture. Like Said, he has attempted to make a permanent place for himself at NASCAR's top level and that gives him not only road course experience, but also some oval track laps. He knows how the car will handle in traffic, which separates him from many of the other road ringers who have come and gone. His talent on the twisty tracks speaks for itself, especially when compared with some oval veterans who are frankly fish out of water when they are required to turn both right and left. Running his first race of the season, you will be able to snap him up at a rock bottom price and that will make him one of the best values of the game.

Fantasy Power Ranking

Road courses (past three years)
Pos. Driver PA*   Pos. Driver PA*   Pos. Driver PA*
1. Jimmie Johnson 5.42   17. Robby Gordon 20.96   32. Paul Menard 28.54
2. Tony Stewart 6.73   18. Dale Earnhardt Jr. 21.00   33. Joey Logano 28.91
3. Juan Montoya 8.77   19. Jamie McMurray 21.11   34. Mark Martin 30.17
4. Marcos Ambrose 6.85   20. Boris Said 22.31   35. David Ragan 31.90
5. Kyle Busch 10.67   21. Casey Mears 22.49   36. Andy Lally 31.90
6. Carl Edwards 10.73   22. Jeff Burton 22.79   37. J.J. Yeley 34.82
7. Kurt Busch 11.94   23. Elliott Sadler 23.17   38. Travis Kvapil 35.12
8. Denny Hamlin 13.31   24. Matt Kenseth 23.74   39. P.J. Jones 35.25
9. Jeff Gordon 13.65   25. A.J. Allmendinger 24.42   40. Dave Blaney 35.89
10. Kasey Kahne 16.27   26. Patrick Carpentier 25.07   41. David Reutimann 36.74
11. Kevin Harvick 16.96   27. Max Papis 25.98   42. Sam Hornish Jr. 37.05
12. Martin Truex Jr. 17.31   28. Michael McDowell 26.00   43. Kevin Conway 37.75
13. Ryan Newman 17.68   29. Scott Speed 26.16   44. Joe Nemechek 38.38
14. Greg Biffle 18.47   30. David Gilliland 26.68   45. Regan Smith 39.29
15. Brad Keselowski 19.50   31. Bobby Labonte 28.02  
16. Clint Bowyer 20.43  
* The Power Average is the average finish during the past three years, plus the number of laps spent in the lead, in the top five, and in the top 10 expressed as if they were finishing results. For example a driver who has led the most laps receives a hypothetical first-place finish, the driver who leads the second most laps receives a hypothetical second-place finish, and so on. This rewards drivers who competed at the front of the pack for the majority of the race, even if an unfortunate event takes them out of contention at the very end of the race. A driver's recent record in the support series is also factored in, as is his average running position as provided by NASCAR Statistical Services. Failures to qualify are credited to the driver as if they were a finishing position (i.e. the first non-qualifier is assigned a 44th-place finish).
• The road courses are Watkins Glen International and Infineon Raceway.

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