Martin or Bowyer for the final Chase position?

In all of sports, particularly sports that are more mental than physical like stock car racing, experience accounts for so much. You know how to react. You know what to think and when to think it. More importantly, you know when not to think.

Mark Martin's been there and done that -- and he'll do it again next month.

Experience tells Martin that to reach the Chase, your team can go through a lull, but you have to get it back at the right time. Martin's No. 5 team is doing just that. They have three top-15 finishes in their past four starts after a summer stretch that -- well, let's just say it wasn't good.

What do the next four races hold for Martin? If history is any indication, Martin posted three top-fives in the final four races leading to the Chase last year.

But here's the clincher -- in every year during the Chase era during which Martin has run a full Cup schedule, he has made the Chase. He's four for four.

Plus, listen to Martin's interviews, particularly after a so-so week at Watkins Glen. Martin's a notorious curmudgeon, but there's been an interesting mix of stern father and supportive den mother in his tone the past few weeks. We need to get better, but we're making improvements and working really hard.

Mark Martin, motivational speaker. Who would have thunk it?

But that's what experience will bring you.

In the two-man battle for the 12th and final Chase berth, Clint Bowyer will beat out the veteran Mark Martin and compete for the championship.

I know stepping aside as a full-time driver is coming for Martin, and his opportunities at an elusive Cup title are diminishing. But unfortunately in this penultimate season at Hendrick Motorsports, he will be on the sidelines in 2010 because he won't be in the Chase.

This just hasn't been Martin's season. With just five top-fives and seven top-10s, the performance just hasn't been there. The 2010 season has been a struggle for Martin, he hasn't been a threat to win all season, and hasn't been up front on a consistent basis. Since May 1, Martin has just two top-10s, not exactly Chase material.

Bowyer, on the other hand, has had a solid 2010 campaign and it will pay off in these final four races. In that same stretch, Bowyer has five top-10s, including back-to-back fourths at Chicago and Indy. Momentum is on Bowyer's side.

Even this past week at Watkins Glen, Bowyer should have been hammered in points after going three laps down, but Martin couldn't close the deal, coming home 19th and only gaining 44 points.

Let's be honest, neither driver is all that impressive this season. And with both drivers about statistically even at the final four tracks on the schedule, I have to side with the driver who is having a better season -- and that driver is Bowyer.