Return to Michigan about bonuses and bubbles

Here's a look at the top five drivers in the Sprint Cup Series standings and five drivers to watch in Sunday's race at Michigan International Speedway (1 p.m. ET on ESPN). All statistical references are for Cup races at Michigan unless otherwise indicated. Driver Rating is based on the past 11 races at the track.

Top five

1. Kevin Harvick, 78.7 Driver Rating. Michigan sometimes comes down to fuel mileage, and Harvick can gamble all he wants. He is winless with six top-10s in 19 starts, and he hasn't led a lap in seven years. But he is running very well right now and is more than capable of producing a top finish.

2. Jeff Gordon, 97.9. Harvick broke his long winless drought in April and won again last month. Gordon is still saddled with his. But he's really in the same boat as Harvick. Both are locks for the Chase, so it's all about winning and picking up the 10 bonus points. Gordon has two victories and 18 top-fives, including finishing second twice last year and fourth in June.

3. Jeff Burton, 75.2. Burton's 264-point cushion over 13th place Clint Bowyer is big enough to allow him to take chances on fuel mileage to try and break his winless drought, which is longer than Gordon's. Burton has had the speed enough times this year to get a win; he just hasn't been able to close the deal. He has finished in the top 10 the past five weeks. He's more than due. He finished eighth in June for his first top-10 since he finished fourth in 2002 for Jack Roush.

4. Kurt Busch, 99.5. Busch won the pole in June, led 60 laps and finished third for his eighth top-10 in 19 starts. He has two victories, the latest in 2007. Busch finished second last week and should be in the mix for his third victory of the season.

5. Jimmie Johnson, 110.7. Johnson has done everything but win at Michigan -- and unfortunately for him that includes running out of gas twice last year after dominating both races (leading 279 of 400 laps). He qualifies very well (8.1 average start) and has started in the top five the past four races. He finished sixth in June.

Five to watch

9. Carl Edwards, 111.2. If ever there was a time for Edwards' 58-race drought to end, it's Sunday. He hasn't finished worse than seventh in the past five weeks, and it appears Roush Fenway Racing has turned the corner. Edwards has two victories and 10 top-10s in 12 starts with a 6.6 average finish at Michigan. If Edwards and Roush teammate Greg Biffle (102.8 Driver Rating) are available for your fantasy team this week, start them.

12. Mark Martin, 86.9. Martin leads by 10 points over Bowyer and absolutely must be cognizant of Bowyer's status Sunday. And if Martin is having a bad day, Ryan Newman (83 points back) and Jamie McMurray (94 points) are lurking. Martin picked up his fifth victory at Michigan in June 2009.

13. Clint Bowyer, 72.8. Michigan is one of Bowyer's weakest tracks. His two top-10s came last year, but he finished 22nd in June, which is in line with his 21.2 average finish in nine races. He has a worse average finish at only Talladega and Darlington. And his top-10 percentage, 22.2, is better than only his one top-10 in five races at both Darlington and Watkins Glen. Not good signs.

14. Ryan Newman, 71.0. Speaking of poor numbers at Michigan ... since posting back-to-back victories in 2003-04, Newman has gone 12 races without a top 10. He finished 32nd in June. He has a 19.4 average finish, but it's 22.3 in the past 12 races. That's a difference of nine points in the standings. With four races to go before the Chase field is set, all points make a difference.

15. Jamie McMurray, 69.8. McMurray has been so inconsistent this year, you're not sure week to week what he'll do. If it's the McMurray of the past four weeks (fifth, first, 22nd, sixth), he's a factor for the 12th spot. But if it's the McMurray with six finishes of 30th or worse, his Chase hopes are toast. He finished 24th in June after qualifying second. Overall, he has four top-10s in 15 starts.

Related:
• By the Numbers: Hamlin goes Michigan sweep
• Fantasy Preview: Momentum could spur Edwards
• In the Loop: Johnson, Hamlin eye bonus points