No one taking hold of role as favorite or 12th man

1. Three races to go until the Chase, and Clint Bowyer and Mark Martin are separated by 35 points for the 12th and final spot. Who gets in?

Mark Aumann: I'm going to say Bowyer, just because it seems like Martin's momentum has stalled. In fact, we wouldn't even be debating this had Bowyer not broken late at Watkins Glen. At that point, he would have pretty much put Martin in a must-win situation.

Dave Rodman: Tough call -- in fact, you hate to go with clichés, but it's too close to call. As my ol' best bud Curly would've said, "I t'ink it's gonna come down to coicumstances ..." (Or however you'd spell the phrase from that Three Stooges classic.)

David Caraviello: Yikes. Talk about a scenario that could shift 100 times in either direction between now and midnight at Richmond, given the narrow point gap. But it's got to be Bowyer, right? As strange as it may seem, Hendrick's results have been a little scattershot lately, and if there's one thing an RCR can do well, it's put up consistent finishes. That's what they've been doing most of the year anyway.

Dave Rodman: Mark Martin's awesome legacy puts you in a position to never discount the man -- never. But for some reason their package has been so rumpled this season as to be unpredictable. Bowyer, on the other hand, has been pretty consistent -- but they can't cure the crazy stuff that's been happening to them.

David Caraviello: But then again, Clint hasn't finished better than 13th since Indianapolis. But Martin has only one top-10 result -- a seventh at Pocono -- since the Coca-Cola 600. That's all the way back in May, boys. That's a dang long time. Looking at that, you wonder how he's still in this at all.

Dave Rodman: Bowyer eliminates three of the wild episodes that have happened to him -- we're not having this conversation. Even as it is, he's had about double that many and he's still not only in the mix, but in the dominant position right now. That says a lot.

Mark Aumann: That last spot has been up for grabs, for the most part, all season. And nobody has put together any kind of a run at it. If there's one certainty, it appears none of other guys on the outside looking -- Ryan Newman, Jamie McMurray or Kasey Kahne -- has a reasonable chance of putting together some kind of run to get back in it. None of those three has a sterling record at Bristol. And yeah, based on how both of these guys have run for much of the summer, I don't see either one making much of a splash in the Chase. I really thought it was Junior's to lose. Sadly, he did.

David Caraviello: Yeah Mark, I agree. You get past Martin and Clint into Jamie McMurray and Ryan Newman territory, and you're talking about point gaps of 100-plus. Now, of course, that's not insurmountable in three races. But with so many guys in the mix, and so many guys to climb over, and given all the guys you'd need to have bad luck even if you had a good run -- you have to think it's unlikely, and that last Chase spot is a two-man race.

Dave Rodman: But they're in that position they absolutely hate, and that most fans have to love: lurking. They can run just good enough that if there's a stumble, they're right there. And the neat thing is, with Jamie only 105 out, not only does he not have many people to jump over, but not many points. The inconsistency of all four of them makes it intriguing.

Mark Aumann: But see, there's the rub, Dave. McMurray has one top-five finish in 15 Bristol starts. Newman? One in 17. It's not probable. And the numbers are even worse at Atlanta: Newman's 1-for-17 in top-fives, McMurray, 0-for-16. They just have run out of time and are going to places where they haven't run well. And yeah, it's really on Bowyer to close the deal now. He's got the advantage and can really put pressure on Martin with a top-10 finish Saturday night.

David Caraviello: Jamie's 105 out, Dave, but he needs help from three other guys and has only three races in which to do it. He hasn't done it to this point. What makes you think that team is capable of flipping the switch and suddenly vaulting into the top 12?

Dave Rodman: Have been saying for several weeks it's a four-man race and it is, until after Bristol. If neither Newman nor McMurray can get within 50-odd points of 12th going to Atlanta, heck -- it might be all but clinched if Clint gets a RCR-typical top-five at Bristol.

Who's 12th?

Bill Kimm and Mark Spoor look at Mark Martin and Clint Bowyer and debate who will claim the 12th and final position.

• Complete story
• Martin struggles at MIS

David Caraviello: Listen, if Martin and Bowyer get caught up on a first-lap crash and Jamie and Newman go on to finish in the top five at Bristol, then we're talking. But that's the kind of thing that needs to happen here, and it's unlikely. Martin is a great driver, Clint drives for a great team. They're not going to both give it away.

Dave Rodman: I don't have a problem giving them credit for what their teams are capable of accomplishing. But is it likely? Well, no -- but possibilities are what keeps everyone, or at least the ones who still are, coming back every week. But don't forget, I think we all just agreed that, potential aside, the No. 33 and No. 5 have been less than scintillating in posting consistently good finishes. And you know how stubborn I am. Bowyer and Martin are going to have to race hard for it, and that opens the door for a disaster for one, or both of them.

Mark Aumann: Not necessarily. Teams in Chase contention have treated Bristol with more than kid gloves in recent seasons. They know to be on their best behavior and they won't do any worse than a top 20.

David Caraviello: Mark, you're right. This is the time of year when guys on the Chase bubble get exceedingly conservative, holding their position and waiting for other people to make mistakes. That's what makes it so difficult to jump over people this time of year. That's why this last spot is almost certain to come down to the two guys who are swapping it back and forth now.

Mark Aumann: Especially given the triple-digit lead on everyone else. That's like a psychological advantage that's almost impossible to overcome. You're talking 30 positions on the track by Richmond. (Continued)