With Chase looming, can Bowyer be caught? (cont'd)

3. On to Atlanta for Sunday night's Labor Day weekend race. Is this a chance for March winner Kurt Busch to show he's still a championship threat?

Jarrod Breeze: I don't think Kurt Busch is a championship threat. I can't see a Dodge driver hoisting that big trophy at Homestead.

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Jill Erwin: Jarrod beat me to it, but I think this is a faulty premise, because I'm not sure Elder Busch is a championship threat.

David Caraviello: Lot of sub-plots at Atlanta this week. There's Kurt, trying to show that he deserves a place at the Johnson-Hamlin-Harvick table. There's Kahne, trying to win one more for Ford and RPM. There's Carl Edwards and Brad Keselowski, back to the scene of the crime. And there's the overarching question of whether fans will turn out in droves for this one even after Atlanta has lost a race.

Jill Erwin: Side note: I'm so over the Edwards-Keselowski thing. Until they tangle again, can everyone [especially TV types] stop breathlessly debating this thing? It's over and done with ... until it's not.

Jarrod Breeze: Kurt has had only two DNFs all season, but they have come in the past four races. He has top-10s in the other two. He's been solid all year, but I just don't think he has the horses to compete with the Chevys and Toyotas over a 10-race stretch.

David Caraviello: It has indeed been a long time since Charlotte, which was the site of Kurt's last victory -- on a 1.5-mile tri-oval, I might add. Yes, he's been all over the place lately, but we're getting to the point in the schedule where we're beginning to revisit a lot of intermediate tracks, where Kurt had so many good runs early in the year. Is he a championship threat? Maybe not. But he has some very good tracks coming up, and if he can regain some of that form, he may be a dark horse.

Jill Erwin: Kurt hasn't gone more than three races this season without a finish of 18th or worse. There are some top-10s in there, but they're sandwiched between numbers like 32nd and 40th.

Jarrod Breeze: I think Kurt will finish higher than any Ford driver, but that's probably not saying much. Even though the Blue Oval has made strides, the Blue Deuce right now is a better car.

Jill Erwin: Jarrod, I'll take that bet. I say Greg Biffle finishes higher than Busch.

David Caraviello: I'm not saying he's in the Johnson/Hamlin/Harvick league. Those guys have clearly been the lead triumvirate all season. But look at what's coming up -- Atlanta, Kansas, Fontana, Charlotte, Texas. The No. 2 team rocked and rolled on tri-ovals in the spring. They do it again in the fall, they absolutely could shoehorn their way into this.

Jill Erwin: Wait a second, Jarrod. You think Kurt will beat out Edwards in the final standings?

David Caraviello: As it stands now, Kurt will have a 20-point edge in bonus points once the Chase begins.

Jarrod Breeze: Sure, why not. He's had a better overall season than any Ford driver. And he can certainly hold his own with any driver on the track. But the power behind Chevy and Toyota will be too great for a lone Dodge to overcome. But boy, wouldn't that a story make?

Jill Erwin: OK, I'll take that bet from both of you! Wait, did I just become Joe Menzer?

David Caraviello: Jill, I will give you this -- Carl has been downright monstrous lately. His 12th-place finish at Bristol snapped a string of six straight finishes in the top 10. And we all know he's done several back flips at Atlanta. So for all our discussions about Busch, maybe this week is when Edwards wedges his way into the championship party? Given how screwy this year has been, I wouldn't rule anything out.

Jarrod Breeze: Not to get too far off track, but I'm not sold on Kevin Harvick. we've seen so many times a dominant regular season turn to squat once the Chase comes, and Harvick has never been in this position before. Let's face it, struggling or not, someone has to beat Jimmie Johnson to win this thing. And until I see it happen, Kurt, Harvick or anyone else are not "threats."

Jill Erwin: You're both right! I'd love to see Harvick keep doing what he's doing, but the Chase is somehow such a different monster. Caraviello, Edwards could definitely be in contention, but I just feel like if he comes through and wins the title in a season in which Ford struggled so mightily, it will say more about the Chase than it does about him or the cars.

David Caraviello: Jarrod, that's just crazy talk. Harvick has been the one guy who hasn't had a wobble this season. Dude has been a rock. His Michigan victory convinced me he was for real.

Jarrod Breeze: Kyle Busch won eight races before the Chase in 2008, it all went to pot really quickly. Not saying it will happen, but Harvick has a lot more to prove than even a Kurt Busch does. Tony Stewart wasn't much of a factor in the Chase last year, if I am recalling correctly. The Chase just hasn't been good to the first-26 leaders recently.

David Caraviello: Harvick's a different animal, though. He doesn't seem to have those wild swings in terms of temperament and result. But if he wins the Chase, he'll be only the second "regular season" leader to do it. So nothing is guaranteed, I will give you that. Far from it.

Jarrod Breeze: For me, the jury is still out on Harvick. Even Hamlin, too. Whoever wins it will have to beat Johnson. Period.

David Caraviello: Jarrod, has anyone impressed you? Are you putting your money on Harry Gant?

Jarrod Breeze: Well, might as well lose the rest of it. If I'm betting on Martin to finish ahead of McMurray and Busch to wind up ahead of Edwards and/or Biffle, I will owe my house to Jill Erwin.