With Chase looming, can Bowyer be caught?

1. The largest deficit ever overcome by a driver to make the Chase with two races remaining was 90 points, by Kasey Kahne in 2006. Jamie McMurray is 100 back. Can he do it?

Jarrod Breeze: I don't think so. In fact, Mark Martin is only one point behind McMurray and if I were a betting man, I'd think Martin would be the best bet. That being said, if anyone can pull off a Jeremy Mayfield-type finish, it would be the winner of arguably the two biggest races this season.

Jill Erwin: No. And not because it's Jamie McMurray, per se. But because Clint Bowyer gave himself a heck of a momentum boost with a good run last time out, and his team is ready to go. I don't see him leaving any opening for McMurray or Mark Martin to sneak into the Chase.

David Caraviello: Nothing against McMurray, but I'd be stunned if he did it. One hundred points is a lot, and Clint's not exactly going to sit in the garage area and let Jamie try to catch him. McMurray needs something catastrophic, like an engine failure, to happen to the No. 33 car. Atlanta's tough on engines, but ECR makes the best in the series -- McMurray ought to know, he has one under the hood as well.

Jill Erwin: David, that's a key point. They're not teammates, but they've got the same power. And we all know how important engines are at Atlanta.

Jarrod Breeze: This is Clint Bowyer's spot to lose more so than McMurray's or anyone else's to win. Bowyer's had one blown engine this year, in the first Bristol race. If that is McMurray's only hope, it's not much of one. Even though Bowyer had trouble at Watkins Glen, I believe it was, he was able to get back on the track and salvage something.

Jill Erwin: Jarrod, to your point, I'm not sure I'd put any money on Martin being the more likely guy either. There's something really off with that team, and to be frank, them being this close to the Chase right now is somewhat of a surprise to me. They just haven't contended all season.

Jarrod Breeze: Agreed, Jill ... I'm having a hard time convincing myself that Martin will finish better than McMurray. Just going on past track records, I guess.

• Catching Bowyer not impossible
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David Caraviello: Clint hasn't exactly set the world on fire lately, but he's been very solid -- three top-five finishes in his past six starts, and only one finish outside the top 20 since Sonoma. McMurray's been all over the place, and seems as liable to finish 20th as sixth. But right now it just looks like too many points to make up, and not enough time to do it.

Jarrod Breeze: Right. It will be awfully difficult to gain 100 points in two races. Too little, too late for Jamie Mac. He needed more early season consistency. The problem with McMurray is he's had really good finishes or really bad ones. Not much middle ground with the guy this season, and that will leave him on the outside looking in post-Richmond.

Jill Erwin: Mark Martin, for the record, has one top-10 finish in his past 11 races. That's even worse than I was expecting.

Jarrod Breeze: Pile it on, Jill, pile it on.

Jill Erwin: I'm a math geek. Sue me.

David Caraviello: I think crew chief Alan Gustafson accurately summed up the No. 5 team's efforts of late in his comment to Joe Menzer after the Bristol race. Here's the question -- which is more likely to happen, somebody catches Bowyer, or we go to Richmond with all 12 spots already locked up for the first time? It could happen. For all this debate about who can catch Clint, let's not forget that if Bowyer pushes that margin from 100 to 162, all he has to do is start next weekend at Richmond. That's ballgame over.

Jill Erwin: I'm sad to say it, especially for my friends at RIR who will be left promoting a race with no drama, but I think all 12 will be locked in. I just don't see any late-season drama on the horizon. I'm also, for the record, sad for me. I'll be at that race as well.

Jarrod Breeze: I don't think he's going to gain 62 points in one race, so he'll have to have a decent run at Richmond to clinch, but clinch he will.

Jill Erwin: It's only the difference between first and 12th to make up 68 points. It could very well happen. If Bowyer leads the most laps, of course. But it's also the difference between 10th and 31st.

Jarrod Breeze: OK, Professor Erwin, go collaborate with Danica McKellar on a math book. The reason I know Danica McKellar, of Wonder Years fame, is an author of math books is because I researched her working up one of Raygan Swan's Six Pack articles.

David Caraviello: I realize NASCAR wants drama out of this "Race to the Chase" period, but this is one of those years where it just may not be there. Kasey Kahne is what, 136 back, and on his conference call the other day he was being asked about his chances of getting into the top 12. Nothing against Kasey, but that's like asking me about my odds of walking on the moon. Which are not good.

Jill Erwin: But can you moonwalk?

David Caraviello: Only on very specific occasions involving certain quantities of adult beverages. That's when I break out the red leather jacket and the one silver glove.

Jill Erwin: I hope you and Mark Aumann don't hit up any adult beverage serving areas while in Atlanta for the race.

Jarrod Breeze: You wanna be starting something? I don't think so, on to question 2. (Continued)