With Chase looming, can Bowyer be caught?

1. The largest deficit ever overcome by a driver to make the Chase with two races remaining was 90 points, by Kasey Kahne in 2006. Jamie McMurray is 100 back. Can he do it?

Jarrod Breeze: I don't think so. In fact, Mark Martin is only one point behind McMurray and if I were a betting man, I'd think Martin would be the best bet. That being said, if anyone can pull off a Jeremy Mayfield-type finish, it would be the winner of arguably the two biggest races this season.

Jill Erwin: No. And not because it's Jamie McMurray, per se. But because Clint Bowyer gave himself a heck of a momentum boost with a good run last time out, and his team is ready to go. I don't see him leaving any opening for McMurray or Mark Martin to sneak into the Chase.

David Caraviello: Nothing against McMurray, but I'd be stunned if he did it. One hundred points is a lot, and Clint's not exactly going to sit in the garage area and let Jamie try to catch him. McMurray needs something catastrophic, like an engine failure, to happen to the No. 33 car. Atlanta's tough on engines, but ECR makes the best in the series -- McMurray ought to know, he has one under the hood as well.

Jill Erwin: David, that's a key point. They're not teammates, but they've got the same power. And we all know how important engines are at Atlanta.

Jarrod Breeze: This is Clint Bowyer's spot to lose more so than McMurray's or anyone else's to win. Bowyer's had one blown engine this year, in the first Bristol race. If that is McMurray's only hope, it's not much of one. Even though Bowyer had trouble at Watkins Glen, I believe it was, he was able to get back on the track and salvage something.

Jill Erwin: Jarrod, to your point, I'm not sure I'd put any money on Martin being the more likely guy either. There's something really off with that team, and to be frank, them being this close to the Chase right now is somewhat of a surprise to me. They just haven't contended all season.

Jarrod Breeze: Agreed, Jill ... I'm having a hard time convincing myself that Martin will finish better than McMurray. Just going on past track records, I guess.

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David Caraviello: Clint hasn't exactly set the world on fire lately, but he's been very solid -- three top-five finishes in his past six starts, and only one finish outside the top 20 since Sonoma. McMurray's been all over the place, and seems as liable to finish 20th as sixth. But right now it just looks like too many points to make up, and not enough time to do it.

Jarrod Breeze: Right. It will be awfully difficult to gain 100 points in two races. Too little, too late for Jamie Mac. He needed more early season consistency. The problem with McMurray is he's had really good finishes or really bad ones. Not much middle ground with the guy this season, and that will leave him on the outside looking in post-Richmond.

Jill Erwin: Mark Martin, for the record, has one top-10 finish in his past 11 races. That's even worse than I was expecting.

Jarrod Breeze: Pile it on, Jill, pile it on.

Jill Erwin: I'm a math geek. Sue me.

David Caraviello: I think crew chief Alan Gustafson accurately summed up the No. 5 team's efforts of late in his comment to Joe Menzer after the Bristol race. Here's the question -- which is more likely to happen, somebody catches Bowyer, or we go to Richmond with all 12 spots already locked up for the first time? It could happen. For all this debate about who can catch Clint, let's not forget that if Bowyer pushes that margin from 100 to 162, all he has to do is start next weekend at Richmond. That's ballgame over.

Jill Erwin: I'm sad to say it, especially for my friends at RIR who will be left promoting a race with no drama, but I think all 12 will be locked in. I just don't see any late-season drama on the horizon. I'm also, for the record, sad for me. I'll be at that race as well.

Jarrod Breeze: I don't think he's going to gain 62 points in one race, so he'll have to have a decent run at Richmond to clinch, but clinch he will.

Jill Erwin: It's only the difference between first and 12th to make up 68 points. It could very well happen. If Bowyer leads the most laps, of course. But it's also the difference between 10th and 31st.

Jarrod Breeze: OK, Professor Erwin, go collaborate with Danica McKellar on a math book. The reason I know Danica McKellar, of Wonder Years fame, is an author of math books is because I researched her working up one of Raygan Swan's Six Pack articles.

David Caraviello: I realize NASCAR wants drama out of this "Race to the Chase" period, but this is one of those years where it just may not be there. Kasey Kahne is what, 136 back, and on his conference call the other day he was being asked about his chances of getting into the top 12. Nothing against Kasey, but that's like asking me about my odds of walking on the moon. Which are not good.

Jill Erwin: But can you moonwalk?

David Caraviello: Only on very specific occasions involving certain quantities of adult beverages. That's when I break out the red leather jacket and the one silver glove.

Jill Erwin: I hope you and Mark Aumann don't hit up any adult beverage serving areas while in Atlanta for the race.

Jarrod Breeze: You wanna be starting something? I don't think so, on to question 2.

2. Kyle Busch goes for his fifth consecutive national-series victory in Friday night's Truck Series event at Kentucky Speedway. How big would that be?

Jarrod Breeze: Pretty significant, I think, but don't know if too many fans would really care, because 1, It's Kyle Busch and 2, there sadly just doesn't seem to be much interest in the Truck Series.

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Jill Erwin: I'm not sure I can express how big this would be, relatively. Is it winning four Cup titles in a row? No. But it's a different kind of impressive. To run different vehicles on different tracks with different crew chiefs and different equipment and still dominate like he has? It's making every race in every series a must-watch for me.

David Caraviello: We touched on this last week, but I really struggle to put these Kyle exploits into perspective, simply because he's doing stuff no one has done before, and in some cases hasn't even tried. That's absolutely no knock against him. The dude has Hall of Fame talent [yes, I said it]. But how big an accomplishment would five straight be? Probably in the same neighborhood as sweeping Bristol.

Jill Erwin: David, you're right on every level. It is hard to put it on some kind of measurement scale. But I think, as someone argued last week, the very fact he's doing something no one else has done makes it impressive all by itself.

Jarrod Breeze: If Kyle Busch ran full time in the Nationwide and Truck series, he would win titles in both series in the same season. Now that would be big. I'm more surprised when Busch doesn't win Nationwide or Truck races, he's that dominant.

David Caraviello: Goodness that would be huge. And I don't understand why people dismiss the Truck Series. It's awfully fun to watch. In fact, it's more fun to watch because Kyle is doing this moonlighting thing so often. Every time he's in a Truck race, I expect him to win. I'm sure he probably does, too. Watching Rowdy battle the Truck regulars, like Todd Bodine the other night, can be great fun.

Jill Erwin: I love the Nationwide Series guys, and the Cup guys are the big-money stars, but yeah. For my money? I'd watch the Truck race over any of them.

Jarrod Breeze: Truck races are good. They are short enough to keep your interest, and are usually action-packed,

David Caraviello: I mean, I wonder if it's because so many Truck races are on Friday nights, which is traditionally the lowest-rated TV night of the week. I wonder if it's a question of SPEED's household penetration. Because the broadcasts are solid, and like Jarrod says the races don't take all night. And usually they're pretty good, although Kyle did run away from everybody at the end at Chicagoland last week.

Jarrod Breeze: It also doesn't hurt that only 36 line up to start a race to begin with. And, up until this year, it usually has a captivating, non-Chase championship battle. But the Onion is making everyone cry this year.

David Caraviello: Tip your bartenders and waitresses, he's here all week!

Jarrod Breeze: I'm on an [Onion] roll.

David Caraviello: Not to butter you up, but wouldn't you think that Kyle's presence would help Truck TV ratings? He's like the Tiger Woods of that series, the guy everybody knows they have to beat. Or is Kyle so polarizing that as soon as he gets up front, people tune out? No idea.

Jarrod Breeze: I also doesn't help that hardly any practices and only occasionally a qualifying session are broadcast, so there's not much in the way of seeing these guys on TV. And, Kyle is the guy we love to hate. But I hate Duke basketball, and would never tune in to watch them.

Jill Erwin: Hey! Let's leave Coach K out of this!

David Caraviello: Does that matter, Jarrod? Will people watch the Truck Series more if practice is televised? I can't imagine that.

Jarrod Breeze: Maybe, maybe not. All I'm saying is all the Truck series gets is a little Friday night block on TV. Maybe a little more air time is needed.

Jill Erwin: David, I think Kyle is a really rare villain. He relishes the role [something Brad Keselowski hasn't quite embraced yet], but I don't think he draws people to root against him. If they're already watching a Cup race, they'll do it. But if it's a Truck race, and they have other things to do, and he's leading a bunch of laps, they're not going to stick around to watch him cruise. And I think that's unfortunate, but somewhat expected.

Jarrod Breeze: I'll go along with that, Jill. If you want to root against someone, you're probably not going to watch a race they are most likely to win.

David Caraviello: Of course, even the Cup ratings are struggling to gain traction, and most of those races have been fantastic lately. And I still get e-mails from people trying to tell me how awful it is. It's like there's this huge disconnect out there that NASCAR is struggling to bridge.

3. On to Atlanta for Sunday night's Labor Day weekend race. Is this a chance for March winner Kurt Busch to show he's still a championship threat?

Jarrod Breeze: I don't think Kurt Busch is a championship threat. I can't see a Dodge driver hoisting that big trophy at Homestead.

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Jill Erwin: Jarrod beat me to it, but I think this is a faulty premise, because I'm not sure Elder Busch is a championship threat.

David Caraviello: Lot of sub-plots at Atlanta this week. There's Kurt, trying to show that he deserves a place at the Johnson-Hamlin-Harvick table. There's Kahne, trying to win one more for Ford and RPM. There's Carl Edwards and Brad Keselowski, back to the scene of the crime. And there's the overarching question of whether fans will turn out in droves for this one even after Atlanta has lost a race.

Jill Erwin: Side note: I'm so over the Edwards-Keselowski thing. Until they tangle again, can everyone [especially TV types] stop breathlessly debating this thing? It's over and done with ... until it's not.

Jarrod Breeze: Kurt has had only two DNFs all season, but they have come in the past four races. He has top-10s in the other two. He's been solid all year, but I just don't think he has the horses to compete with the Chevys and Toyotas over a 10-race stretch.

David Caraviello: It has indeed been a long time since Charlotte, which was the site of Kurt's last victory -- on a 1.5-mile tri-oval, I might add. Yes, he's been all over the place lately, but we're getting to the point in the schedule where we're beginning to revisit a lot of intermediate tracks, where Kurt had so many good runs early in the year. Is he a championship threat? Maybe not. But he has some very good tracks coming up, and if he can regain some of that form, he may be a dark horse.

Jill Erwin: Kurt hasn't gone more than three races this season without a finish of 18th or worse. There are some top-10s in there, but they're sandwiched between numbers like 32nd and 40th.

Jarrod Breeze: I think Kurt will finish higher than any Ford driver, but that's probably not saying much. Even though the Blue Oval has made strides, the Blue Deuce right now is a better car.

Jill Erwin: Jarrod, I'll take that bet. I say Greg Biffle finishes higher than Busch.

David Caraviello: I'm not saying he's in the Johnson/Hamlin/Harvick league. Those guys have clearly been the lead triumvirate all season. But look at what's coming up -- Atlanta, Kansas, Fontana, Charlotte, Texas. The No. 2 team rocked and rolled on tri-ovals in the spring. They do it again in the fall, they absolutely could shoehorn their way into this.

Jill Erwin: Wait a second, Jarrod. You think Kurt will beat out Edwards in the final standings?

David Caraviello: As it stands now, Kurt will have a 20-point edge in bonus points once the Chase begins.

Jarrod Breeze: Sure, why not. He's had a better overall season than any Ford driver. And he can certainly hold his own with any driver on the track. But the power behind Chevy and Toyota will be too great for a lone Dodge to overcome. But boy, wouldn't that a story make?

Jill Erwin: OK, I'll take that bet from both of you! Wait, did I just become Joe Menzer?

David Caraviello: Jill, I will give you this -- Carl has been downright monstrous lately. His 12th-place finish at Bristol snapped a string of six straight finishes in the top 10. And we all know he's done several back flips at Atlanta. So for all our discussions about Busch, maybe this week is when Edwards wedges his way into the championship party? Given how screwy this year has been, I wouldn't rule anything out.

Jarrod Breeze: Not to get too far off track, but I'm not sold on Kevin Harvick. we've seen so many times a dominant regular season turn to squat once the Chase comes, and Harvick has never been in this position before. Let's face it, struggling or not, someone has to beat Jimmie Johnson to win this thing. And until I see it happen, Kurt, Harvick or anyone else are not "threats."

Jill Erwin: You're both right! I'd love to see Harvick keep doing what he's doing, but the Chase is somehow such a different monster. Caraviello, Edwards could definitely be in contention, but I just feel like if he comes through and wins the title in a season in which Ford struggled so mightily, it will say more about the Chase than it does about him or the cars.

David Caraviello: Jarrod, that's just crazy talk. Harvick has been the one guy who hasn't had a wobble this season. Dude has been a rock. His Michigan victory convinced me he was for real.

Jarrod Breeze: Kyle Busch won eight races before the Chase in 2008, it all went to pot really quickly. Not saying it will happen, but Harvick has a lot more to prove than even a Kurt Busch does. Tony Stewart wasn't much of a factor in the Chase last year, if I am recalling correctly. The Chase just hasn't been good to the first-26 leaders recently.

David Caraviello: Harvick's a different animal, though. He doesn't seem to have those wild swings in terms of temperament and result. But if he wins the Chase, he'll be only the second "regular season" leader to do it. So nothing is guaranteed, I will give you that. Far from it.

Jarrod Breeze: For me, the jury is still out on Harvick. Even Hamlin, too. Whoever wins it will have to beat Johnson. Period.

David Caraviello: Jarrod, has anyone impressed you? Are you putting your money on Harry Gant?

Jarrod Breeze: Well, might as well lose the rest of it. If I'm betting on Martin to finish ahead of McMurray and Busch to wind up ahead of Edwards and/or Biffle, I will owe my house to Jill Erwin.