For the seventh consecutive season, the Race to the Chase has consisted of the first 26 races of the season.

But for the seventh time, all attention is focused on Richmond International for Saturday's Air Guard 400, which is being billed as "One Last Race to Make The Chase."

That's not a falsehood, but in reality, history has shown -- with few exceptions -- that very little will change after Saturday's 400-lapper under the lights. Ten spots in the Chase field have been clinched and on Wednesday, track president Doug Fritz and Miss Sprint Cup Amanda Wright painted their numbers on the backstretch.

Kevin Harvick heads the list of drivers who have clinched, followed by Jeff Gordon, Kyle Busch, Tony Stewart, Carl Edwards, Jeff Burton, Jimmie Johnson, Kurt Busch, Matt Kenseth and Denny Hamlin, in that order.

Greg Biffle, with a 161-point leader over 13th place Ryan Newman, virtually clinches his spot in the Chase just by taking the green flag. Clint Bowyer is currently 12th in the championship, and given that his advantage is more than double of any deficit that's ever been made up in this event, he seems safe.

"Richmond is definitely the place I feel the most comfortable laying it out on the line," Bowyer said. "It's one of my favorite race tracks, where I've won at in the past, so it gives us an extra boost of confidence."

On the outside looking in are Newman, who is 13th and 117 points behind Bowyer; Jamie McMurray, 14th in the standings and 128 points behind Bowyer, and Mark Martin, 15th and 147 out.

A paucity of history

History only supports the fact that the Race to the Chase consists of 26 races, not a few and definitely not one. In the past six seasons, no more than one driver in a year has either raced their way into, or out of the Chase, and that's only happened in four of the six years.

The 2004 event had the most drama with a 10-man Chase in the offing; Jeremy Mayfield scored a stunning victory to vault from 14th in the standings to ninth. In the process, he knocked Kasey Kahne from eighth to out of the field and Newman fell from eighth into 10th. In the process, Mayfield created the record for the biggest point gap that was overcome to make it into the Chase, 55 points.

In 2005, the ill-starred McMurray, who's never made a Chase field, was 10th in the standings coming into Richmond, but only a point clear of Newman in 11th. And when the race was over, Newman was in and McMurray was out.

In 2006, for the third consecutive year, a top-10 driver fell out of the Chase after the cutoff race and Tony Stewart's fall was the most precipitous. Stewart came into the night eighth in the standings, while Kahne was 11th, 30 points out of 10th. When the night ended, Kahne was 10th and Stewart landed in 11th.

In 2007 the Chase format changed, with the field moving from the top 10 in the standings to include the top 12 drivers in the Chase, following the cutoff race. But even though Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s margin to 12th was just 28 points, he wasn't able to make it up and the Chase field entering Richmond was the same going to New Hampshire for the fourth Chase opener.

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I do feel better about our situation with the padding we have over the guys behind us. It's a good feeling to have, but we know we still have a job to do this weekend in order to be able to contend for the championship.

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-- CLINT BOWYER

In 2008 it was more of the same, but with an even narrower point spread that meant nothing. David Ragan, who was in the midst of a career year in the Cup Series, was only 17 points behind 12th place Bowyer coming to Richmond. After the race, Kahne was 13th in the points and the Chase field was unchanged.

In 2009 a bitter Chase mark was set by Matt Kenseth, who came into Richmond trying to hold onto his sixth consecutive Chase position, but by only 20 points over Brian Vickers. After Vickers raced his way into the Chase and Kyle Busch knocked Kenseth back to 14th in the standings, it was Kenseth who plainly stated that failing to make the Chase was more the result of 26 races of sub-par running -- though Richmond provided the final blow.

Bowyer's catbird seat

The scenario that has to take place for Newman to vault past Bowyer has the No. 33 needing to finish only 28th or better if Newman leads the most laps and wins the race, but Bowyer doesn't lead a lap; 29th or better if Newman leads the most laps and wins the race, but Bowyer leads at least one lap; and 31st or better if Newman wins the race, but Bowyer leads the most laps.

Even with that, Bowyer's taking nothing for granted.

"By no means is it locked up yet -- we aren't looking at it that way, either," Bowyer said. "I do feel better about our situation with the padding we have over the guys behind us. It's a good feeling to have, but we know we still have a job to do this weekend in order to be able to contend for the championship."

Bowyer, who several weeks ago plainly said, "If we do what we know we can do, they [the competition] can't touch us," has tried to maintain that calm focus as he, crew chief Shane Wilson and their team have done just that. The pressure is there, but they seem to have kept it in its place.

"You can freak out about it, you can worry about it and everything else --- but that's going to hurt you," Bowyer said. "The No. 33 team needs to go out there and make sure everyone is having fun. You need to pick on each other and lean on your buddies. These guys are the only friends you bring to the race track when the race is on the line. We need to make sure we're having fun and enjoying this time together."

So it was easy for Bowyer to make himself the prime target when he talked about this weekend.

"I need to make sure I don't screw up, first and foremost," he said. "In the end, you need to make sure you don't beat yourself. I've been in this situation before. Even though there is a lot of pressure, we need to go out there and do what we've been doing all year long.

"I need to stay focused at the task at hand, but also remember to have fun with it. As a driver, I'm kind of like the quarterback of this deal. I need to make sure everyone is upbeat and having fun, no matter what's going on this weekend."

'It's not about one race'

Newman was involved in a scrum or three in his two races last weekend at Atlanta, but on the Cup side, he jumped two spots in the points, to 13th. If not for a couple late tangles with Kahne, his points position might be a little better.

"We're not going down without a fight," Newman said, citing his educational background as he replied with a smile. "Mathematically, we have a chance and for an engineering guy I guess that means something. But I can only try my hardest and I did that [Sunday] night. We can't expect to make it all up in one shot."

As usual, Newman is being pragmatic about Richmond.

"It's just another race," Newman said. "How do you expect to make it up in one race what we didn't do in 25 races?"

McMurray, badgered for weeks about his thoughts on making the Chase, has maintained that he wants to be in it, but winning the season's two biggest races, the Daytona 500 and the Brickyard 400, make up for his team's inconsistency that put them in their current position.

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So we've got ourselves too far behind to expect to jump in there. What it will mean in the assessment of the season is a good question.

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-- MARK MARTIN

Martin's year makes big difference

Martin is the one who has the biggest reason to rue inconsistency. He won seven poles and five races last season, his first full year with Hendrick Motorsports, and finished second to teammate Jimmie Johnson in the championship. This season has been incomprehensible to most, including Martin.

"I haven't done the math, but I don't think [the chance to get in] is very good from where we're at -- not very good," Martin said. "I'm sure if Clint starts the race, then we just about need to be leading the most laps and win the race and him finish last -- somewhere in that range.

"So we've got ourselves too far behind to expect to jump in there. What it will mean in the assessment of the season is a good question. This is my first time to miss [the Chase] -- I didn't run for it in '07 or '08. So certainly being in it is big. For me, if we were to have squeaked in it and ran, continued to run like we've run the last three races, three or four races, then it wouldn't make our season, you know what I mean?

"At the end of the day you still have to run good to be, to really feel good about yourself. So if you run good and you miss the Chase, then that's a crying shame. And that's what we were faced with last year. It would have been a destroying season for us and the 5 car to have missed the Chase last year, because we knew if we could make it, we could get in it, we could win it. And nearly did.

"So I'll have more insight on missing it after this season's behind us, I guess. But for us right now, our focus is to get back up on the level that we were on last year and actually [missing the Chase] allows us to go out there and take chances on different hardware and different setups and those kind of things that we wouldn't necessarily if we were in the hunt for the championship."

Finale

For everyone else in the field, it's wait until next year, which is a particularly bitter pill for Juan Montoya, who made the Chase last season, had every expectation of repeating the feat this year and has run well enough to do it, with one problem: Inconsistent finishes. Montoya comes to Richmond 17th in the standings, 200 points behind Bowyer and is already mathematically eliminated.

Kahne was in the best position to challenge Bowyer while the Atlanta race was in progress, as he came into the penultimate Chase cutoff race only 100 points behind and he was ahead of Bowyer on the race track. But Kahne comes to Richmond 210 points out, in 18th.

David Reutimann's another example of what could have been, as he won his second career victory this season and scrambled around the mid-teens a good part of the season. However, lack of consistency has him 16th in the standings and 186 points behind, which eliminates him if Bowyer starts. But it doesn't deny his razor-sharp perspective that could be applied to everyone who'll end Saturday night outside the top 12.

"I wish I was one of the 12 guys inside the top 12 in points with a couple wins, but sometimes that's just how it goes," Reutimann said. "We've had a good season and I know that the No. 00 Aaron's team and all of Michael Waltrip Racing continues to get better every week. We caught some bad breaks early in the season that cost us a lot of points, but we've kept at it. At one point this year we were 30th in points and we've climbed our way back to 16th and keep on gaining spots each week.

"We're not the only team in this situation --- Jamie McMurray has two wins this year, but a couple of bad days cost him, too -- same with Montoya and Newman. It's just frustrating to know we have a team that in my opinion is one of the 12 best in the garage and have to be on the outside looking in for the last 11 weeks."

Martin Truex Jr. was another driver who seemed like he was in position to make a run into his second career Chase. Truex gave a window into what he and the other 31 drivers not in Chase spots have in their view the next 11 weeks.

"A few weeks back, I was one of those guys --- I was a contender," Truex said. "I won't race them any differently or cut them any slack because they don't cut me any breaks. I race them clean anyway so my focus is on winning races in the NAPA Toyota. And to be honest, it's Clint Bowyer's deal to lose. He's been running well and Richmond is a good track for him. I don't see him dropping out unless something really crazy happens."

As history has shown, it might be unlikely, but it wouldn't be the first time.

Related:
• Caraviello: Chase expansion has diluted championship field
• Biffle, Bowyer close in on final two Chase spots
• Chase-only point system wouldn't alter status quo
• One Menz: Five questions as the regular season wraps at RIR
• Photo Essay: Defining moments of the Race to the Chase