As the 2010 Chase for the Sprint Cup prepares to get under way this Sunday at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, the winds of change are blowing.

Or are they?

On one hand, it seems inevitable that NASCAR is poised to make significant changes to the Chase beginning next season. Brian France, chairman and CEO of NASCAR, has said as much. But on the other hand, a cross-section of folks from all walks of life in the garage area point to another possibility: leaving the Chase alone.

Wide Open

Even as the defending four-time champ appears to be rounding into form and ready to unleash his best equipment for the Chase, the drivers competing for this year's title agree to a man that the Chase is more wide open than it has been since the start of the Jimmie Johnson dynasty.

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It could be that how this current Chase plays out will have much to do with which way NASCAR decides to go. Officials from NASCAR have spent considerable time during the past several weeks talking with team owners and drivers in particular, gauging their opinions as to what may or may not need to be done to make the 10-race Chase more exciting.

But with no driver necessarily poised to be dominant in this Chase (even four-time defending champion Jimmie Johnson has shown some small signs of vulnerability), many insiders believe this could be the tightest, most exciting Chase since the format was introduced in 2004. Nine different drivers graced Victory Lane in the final 10 races of the regular season, and only five Chasers registered multiple victories this season. Five of the 12 in the Chase field did not win a single race in the first 26, but now find themselves only 60 points out of first place as the points have been reset. Denny Hamlin is the No. 1 seed and has 60 bonus points by virtue of the 10 he received for each of his six victories this season, including last Saturday at Richmond.

"I think that if we can go out and have a battle like it looks like we're going to have, then I think you are exactly right. I think it will make a difference as to if we change it," said Carl Edwards, the No. 9 seed and one of those drivers still with legitimate championship hopes despite no victories this season.

Ramsey Poston, NASCAR's managing director of corporate communications and one of the point men on gathering information about the subject of possible Chase changes, admitted as much.

"We spent a good while speaking to the industry about a month to six weeks ago, and we got a lot of good input," Poston said. "Now we are back to working internally to look at possible options. At this stage, doing nothing is still a consideration. But we did get some good feedback from teams, the drivers and others that definitely are worthy of consideration, and something that the fans and everyone might like even more about the Chase.

"But we're still in the phase of trying to mull all that over internally, and so no decision has been made on what we're going to do or even if we're going to do something. We hope to know more in the near future."

Yet Poston and other NASCAR officials admitted that no announcement about changes to the Chase, if there are to be any, will be forthcoming before the end of this season.

"I don't think a decision will be made until after the season," Poston said. "How this Chase goes is certainly something that will be taken into consideration."

One thing that Poston and Robin Pemberton, vice president of competition for NASCAR, wanted to emphasize was that in their minds the Chase has achieved the goal identified for it when it was first introduced. It has generated interest and excitement in the sport, Pemberton said, even if the championship in recent years has been all but settled by the time teams arrive in Homestead for the season's final race.

"Everybody I think wishes it would come down to a knock-down, drag-out between two or three guys in the last race -- but it doesn't always work that way," Pemberton said. "This sport is a little different because we all compete at the same tracks every week. I think the Chase has done a really, really good job at creating excitement at the end of the year for the last 10 races. It gives guys who started out fast a chance to get in and have a shot at the championship, and it gives guys who finished strong the same deal -- and what happens then is you end up with your best competitors.

"I think what we're trying to do is whatever is best for the drivers, whatever is best for the fan base. If there is an adjustment made, we want to make sure it impacts the most people in the most positive way."

Getty Images

Kevin Harvick's reward for a dominant first 26 races? A 30-point deficit.

What's on the table?

Among the new ideas being considered is expansion of the number of Chase participants. The Chase field initially was limited to the top 10 drivers in the point standings after the first 26 races. It was increased to 12 in 2007. Now the figure being bandied about most seems to be 15.

Also under consideration are some elimination-type formats, where a certain number of Chase qualifiers would be eliminated from championship contention after a certain number of races, with the field narrowed further as the Chase goes on. While admitting the "elimination scenario" continues to be discussed, Poston said no format as yet has been decided upon as the favorite.

Ty Norris, general manager of Michael Waltrip Racing, said he just wants NASCAR to be careful about what it does.

"I've heard some of the ideas and I like some of the ideas," Norris said. "But before we fix anything, what's the injury? You don't want to put a cast on your right forearm if it's your left ankle that you just broke. If we figure out what we're trying to fix, OK then.

"I think the Chase we have right now is a good program. I like the way 12 teams can participate. I like the way they reset the points. So I like what they're doing now. But like in every other sport, maybe there is a better plan."

Norris has ideas of his own, as well. Echoing a refrain familiar amongst fans and in some corners of the garage, he said he would like to see some kind of reward or recognition for the regular-season points leader. As it is now, the leader at the end of the regular season gets nothing. Kevin Harvick, who led in the points for 20 of the 26 weeks this year, dropped from first to the No. 3 seed for the Chase because he has only three wins and 30 bonus points compared to the 60 earned by Hamlin and the 50 for five victories registered by Johnson.

Whatever is or isn't done, Norris said he just wants NASCAR to make certain it won't cheapen the championship.

"Some of what I've heard is about getting a little deeper in the field, inviting more people to the playoffs, so to speak," Norris said. "I've heard as many as 15, I've heard about elimination, I've heard about different programs. I just want us to make sure that ultimately the Chase champion is a legitimate honor and award.

"The New England Patriots went undefeated all the way to the Super Bowl (two years ago). They won their division, they won the AFC championship, they got to hang a lot of banners -- but they didn't win the ultimate prize. If we're going to change something, maybe there should be a reward for the regular-season champion. Maybe there should be a reward for [winning] divisions or something."

Other sources said NASCAR seriously considered doing something to reward and/or recognize the regular-season points leader last year, but could not come to a decision deemed equitable. The governing body appears more focused this year on actually exploring the possible changes to the Chase.

Like Norris, J.D. Gibbs likes some of what he's hearing but would like NASCAR to be very careful about what it does or doesn't do. As president of Joe Gibbs Racing, Gibbs was quick to add that he appreciated the fact that NASCAR has been proactive in coming to team officials and asking for opinions.

"I could probably go either way on a bunch of that stuff," he said. "Some of it is, do you really need to change it to begin with? There are some valid points to where we can make it a better end of the season. Do you tweak it more? There are some things I would like to see changed, but there are others [that have been discussed] where I'm like, 'Ah, probably not.'

"We had a good conversation with NASCAR. They keep us in the loop on all that stuff. We hear what they say; they hear what we say -- and then we both listen to what the fans are saying. So it's not going to be a surprise when it comes out. I think you'll see some changes. How much, I don't know -- but I think you'll see some."

One change that already has taken place, according to Gibbs, is NASCAR's willingness to listen to others and take everything under consideration before pulling the trigger on anything.

"It's the first time I've really seen in our sport where NASCAR, the owners, the tracks -- everyone is on the same page. That's kind of odd for our sport," Gibbs said. "It's kind of neat to see and have everyone having those kinds of communications where it's open to hear what everyone thinks.

"Obviously, NASCAR has to make those decisions. But I feel a lot better that at least everyone has been heard. No one is doing anything where everyone won't know what they're doing."

Jimmie Johnson

Chase results (championship years)

Year	Wins	2nds	T-5s	T-10s	21+	Avg.	No Chase* (+/-)
2006	1	4	5	6	2	10.8	1 (+4)
2007	4	1	6	8	0	5.0	2 (-353)
2008	3	2	5	8	0	5.7	2 (-16)
2009	4	1	7	9	1	6.8	1 (+66)

* Where Johnson would have finished season under old points system.

“

We see that in professional sports a lot of blowouts happen. Jimmie has just done a really good job of blowing it out when it counts.

”

-- DENNY HAMLIN

The Jimmie factor

The fact that Johnson has pretty handily won the Chase four years running obviously has played a role in opening up the discussions about changing the playoff format. But Norris, Gibbs and others said Johnson and his No. 48 Chevrolet team from Hendrick Motorsports should not take heat for what they've accomplished.

"I honestly think the circumstances of the last four years where Jimmie Johnson just took off and won five of 10 races in the Chase or whatever it was he did each year is a factor," Norris said. "You know, congratulations to them. They earned it. But it did make it boring. The championship was boring."

Gibbs added: "Part of the issue is the 48 -- Jimmie and those guys -- they were just really strong. I don't care what format you had; they've been really strong."

Gibbs argued that Johnson was so strong in the Chase races over the last four years that it probably wouldn't have mattered what format was used. He still likely would have been crowned champion in the end, Gibbs said. That's why he thinks it would be foolish to change the rules based solely on Johnson's score of four consecutive titles.

"What you don't want to have is sort of a contrived deal. But if you earn it and legitimately get there, my hat's off to you," Gibb said. "That's what I like about the Chase. In some years past, you had guys with a 250-point lead at the end. Now you've at least usually got two guys with a chance at the end. You go through those first 26 races and then in those last 10, you've really got to be up on your game. I kind of like that."

In other words, Gibbs and others, including his driver Hamlin, insist that the current format is just fine.

"I think the format that we have is good," Hamlin said. "It's worked well for the last few years. You can't always have a last-lap battle for the championship. Everything that happens in 36 weeks is not always going to boil down to the last laps of the last race.

"We see that in professional sports a lot of blowouts happen. Jimmie has just done a really good job of blowing it out when it counts. Really, I think the format has been good. We've had a lot of guys that have been able to win it in the last race in our Chase format over the last few years, so I think it's worked well for everyone."

Greg Biffle, the No. 7 seed in the 2010 Chase with one victory and 10 bonus points, agreed with Hamlin -- to an extent. But he did raise some other legitimate points that might be considered, such as the possibility of adding a "wild card" Chase qualifier if a driver outside the point cutoff registers a win or multiple wins during the regular season.

"I think the current format is great. It has worked well," Biffle said. "It was a great idea in the beginning and has had some modifications. It rewards guys through the season for consistency, wins, and it gets the top-tier-level guys of our sport in the playoffs. It captures the top 12 guys and let's face it, the guys that aren't in the top 12 probably aren't championship-caliber at this point in the season. I think it does a great job the way it is formatted now.

"Maybe some minor changes might make it a little more exciting. ... If you polled everyone to see if it was fair, some people are complaining about guys having wins or multiple wins and not getting in the Chase. Do you take Jeff Gordon out and put Jamie McMurray in because he has two wins [this season] and Gordon doesn't have any? I don't know. That is something that would have to be thought about for awhile. I hear a lot about people having multiple wins and not being in, or maybe that somehow qualifies you to be in the Chase. Certainly I would be open to whatever they decide."

Jeff Burton, the No. 10 seed in this Chase, said he believes changes will be coming -- and added that he thinks he will be fine with them, if they strike a certain balance.

"I'm a sports fan," Burton said. "I like NCAA basketball. I like the NFL playoffs. I like the fact that you've got to bring it and bring it right now or you're not in it anymore. That's what playoff time in sports is all about. Anything we can do to bring that into our sport is cool.

"At the same time, we can't lose the history of our sport and the body of your work meaning something. The balance of those two things is what it's all about. You can't just throw out your body of work for one race just to create excitement. It's the balance of those things."

Autostock

Jeff Gordon entered the first Chase in 2004 as the points leader. He finished third, 16 points behind champion Kurt Busch.

Chase wish list

So if they had their chances to play king of NASCAR for a day and dictate what happens next year and beyond in the Chase, what would some of these guys do? No one seemed to have a definitive answer as yet.

"As soon as I say what I like, our teams will do the opposite and we'll go backwards," Gibbs said. "Whatever it is, we'll have a chance to prepare for it and then we'll just get in and go.

"Ultimately if you take care of your responsibilities and do your job, you'll be there at the end. No matter what format you use, you'll have your shot."

Norris added: "I guess if you want to fix what's broken, you want to go to the last race of the year with multiple teams with an opportunity to win the championship -- but they've all earned that right to be there. That's what any Chase format change needs to accomplish: multiple teams that earned that spot being there, competing. Not a one-race gimmick, but basically that's what it needs to be.

"I'd like to see a regular-season champion recognized, and I'd like to see multiple cars -- two, three or four cars -- go into the last race of the year with the excitement that we had that first year of the Chase [in 2004]."

That first year of the Chase came down to a three-driver shootout between eventual champion Kurt Busch, Johnson (who had yet to win his first title at that point) and Gordon. Busch ended up edging Johnson by eight points, and finished a mere 16 ahead of Gordon. The next season was pretty close at the end, too, with champion Tony Stewart finishing 35 points ahead of both Biffle and Edwards. But since then, Johnson has won his four titles by an average of 60.75 points -- with last year's 41-point advantage over Mark Martin his smallest and his 77-point winning margin over Gordon in 2007 the largest.

Each year, Johnson arrived at Homestead basically in control. He had to do little more than stay out of trouble in the final race each time to lock up the championship.

Edwards said that if changes do come, he hopes they will represent the last tweaking of the Chase for a long time.

"My opinion is that you should just take the points and the rules and lock it in stone for a certain number of years," Edwards said. "That repeated longevity of a system will lend credibility to it. If you keep changing it, it is hard to believe that this is the champion and [the one who] deserves to be champion. Whatever it is they are going to do, do it and keep it that way for a long time. Personally, I think this [current format] is good."

Burton added: "I like it the way it is -- but again, the more intense we make it, the better it is to watch. So however we can make it more intense, even if it makes my life harder, I'm all for it."

Norris invoked the words of the sport's founder, Bill France Sr., in summing up the current state of the lively debate.

"I've heard that Bill France Sr. always said if you're not moving forward, you're moving backward. There is no status quo. You're not standing still," Norris said. "So I feel like they feel the need to do something to gin it up. But based on what I'm seeing right now, we might have the most amazing Chase ever. There is not one dominant factor. They might actually have an incredible Chase this year and say, 'Wow. It isn't so bad.' Who knows?"

Related:
• Caraviello: Why Harvick needs to win the Chase
• No wins? No problem, say the Chase contenders
• H2H: Tweaking the Chase a hot topic for debate