LAS VEGAS -- If the current top 12 following Sunday's Shelby American maintain their places in the point standings, it would make for a formidable Chase field in September. But as history has shown, who's in after Las Vegas can easily find themselves out by Richmond. And many of those on the outside looking in right now will find a partner for NASCAR's big dance.

In the past three seasons, no fewer than five drivers have swapped places by the time the Chase rolls around. And there's no doubt there are a few drivers on the outside looking in hoping for a similar situation in 2010.

“

We need to regroup this week and focus on getting to the front in Atlanta. We belong up front and we need to be there in Atlanta.

”

-- DENNY HAMLIN

One of those is Kasey Kahne, who started the year with finishes of 30th at Daytona and 34th at Fontana. His ninth-place effort Sunday moved him up 10 positions to 23rd overall.

"We had cars that could run in the top 10 in the first three races," Kahne said. "We had a situation at Daytona and driver error at [Fontana], and we finally got a top-10 here, so I think we're where we should have been in the other races. Now we just have to keep working hard to try and get those points back."

In 22nd after three races, Denny Hamlin knows exactly what Kahne is feeling, but after finishes of 17th, 29th and now 19th at Vegas, the No. 11 Toyota team hasn't found the magic that propelled them to four wins and 20 top-10s in 2009. And that's somewhat disconcerting for the driver picked by many to dethrone Jimmie Johnson this season.

"We fought a loose car the entire afternoon," Hamlin said. "And we did just about everything we could do to try to tighten [it up], and basically nothing worked. Track position is so important here and it seemed like most of the afternoon we ran in the 20s. We just never had a good enough car to move up and pass many people.

"We need to regroup this week and focus on getting to the front in Atlanta. We belong up front and we need to be there in Atlanta."

For Marcos Ambrose, just getting to the end of the race has been difficult. Engine woes sidelined him at Daytona and overheating did him in at Fontana. So finishing 14th Sunday at least staves off worries about dropping out of the top 35 -- he's up six spots to 33rd -- for now.

"Well, we finished and that's more than what we've done the last two races," Ambrose said. "Our season starts right now. We've got to build from that.

"We've got ourselves in the back 40, that helps us get out of a hole here. We're worried about top 35. If we get a couple more good races like that, we'll be fine."

Kurt Busch's woes were more about being in the wrong place at the wrong time. Getting caught up in the Jamie McMurray-Juan Montoya wreck left him 35th on the day after starting the race from the pole, and dropped him to 19th in the points.

"Certainly not the day we anticipated," Busch said. "We had great expectations starting on the pole here at my home track and Lady Luck wasn't on our side.

"I was a sitting duck for the wreck in front of us. Do we get collected if we're on the inside lane? Who knows? It happened and we have to move on. The guys did all they could do to get the right side fixed so that I could go out, make some laps and finish the race."

Obviously, back-to-back bad finishes have Juan Montoya mired in 26th. But guess what? Eventual champion Johnson was 19th at this time last season -- and Ryan Newman and Mark Martin both made the Chase despite being 33rd and 34th after three races.

In fact, that's been the case more often than not in recent seasons. In 2009, only five drivers residing in the top 12 after three races survived and advanced to NASCAR's postseason: Jeff Gordon, Greg Biffle, Kurt Busch, Tony Stewart and Carl Edwards. In the two seasons before that, it was seven of 12.

So even though tough starts can set teeth to gnashing and crews to thrashing, the turnaround race could very well be the next one on the schedule.