FORT WORTH, Texas -- If history is any indication, the Chase field, in theory, could be set after Sunday's Samsung Mobile 500.

Certainly the conjecture is bad news for drivers such as Kurt Busch, Kasey Kahne and Denny Hamlin, but it makes perfect sense to Greg Biffle and Dale Earnhardt Jr., who want to buy in.

Statistically speaking, 72.7 percent of the drivers in the top 10 from 2004 to 2006 and top 12 from 2007 to 2009 after the spring's Texas race made the Chase.

“

We were up here earlier in the season and then dropped out to 17 or 18 after a couple bad runs ... but worked our way back up to the top 12. I think we are good now.

”

-- JOEY LOGANO

"I do agree with that because for one, momentum means a lot in our sport," said Biffle, who is third in the series points, second-highest of all the Roush Fenway Racing drivers. "A guy gets on a good role or off to a good start, you continue to run fairly well, just like you see guys win a race or get a pole the next week, for some reason they run well or better.

"Being in the top 12 after this race, certainly the odds are with you that you are above all the rest of the cars, you obviously have to go down and they have to come up to pass you. I think it does have an indication -- hopefully it is true this year."

As does Joey Logano, who this time last year fought to stay inside the top 35 in points. Now the Joe Gibbs Racing second-year driver has consistently stayed within the top 12.

Will he make the Chase? Perhaps he will be the season's surprise Chase maker. Seemingly, there's always at least one.

"I think we do [have a shot]," said Logano, who seven races into the season has four top-10s and sits 11th in points. "We were up here earlier in the season and then dropped out to 17 or 18 after a couple bad runs ... but worked our way back up to the top 12. I think we are good now."

But, as the stats indicate, Texas Motor Speedway could be the deciding factor. It's a difficult track for the young driver, whose best finish is 19th, but Logano said he was decent in practice Friday and has "a good shot at it."

A factor furthering the credibility of the statistic is how dramatically the landscape of the top 12 changed after last week's race at Phoenix International Raceway.

A total of nine drivers changed positions in the standings. Of the nine, three regained spots in the top 12: Logano, Carl Edwards and Kyle Busch. They're all drivers more than capable of making the Chase, unlike more questionable drivers such as Paul Menard and Brian Vickers, who fell out after poor finishes in Phoenix. Kurt Busch fell out as well but could rally.

All the speculation is just that, speculation, said Earnhardt Jr., even though he stands to benefit as his No. 88 sits 10th in the point standings.

"I'm in then Chase then after this race, shoot," Earnhardt laughed. "No it's a long summer. I don't buy it all. I ain't going to be relaxing after this week I'll tell you that."

David Ragan, who in 2008 had a shot to make the Chase after a strong start to the season, said he believes there are about eight drivers currently outside the top 12 that could still make the Chase, including himself.

"I mean we're not a championship caliber team but we could still make the Chase if we are consistent week in and week out and not have any DNFs from here until Richmond," he said. "We need to prove history wrong, that's what we need to do."

Ragan added that from positions eight through 15 is where the racing and competition gets interesting.

"Hopefully we're in that group," he said. "But positions one through six -- you can guess who it will be. Drivers like Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson."

What should be more interesting is what happens to Roush Fenway driver Matt Kenseth. This time last year, after the Texas race, he was solidly in the top 12 after winning the first two races of the season. He still missed the Chase.

"I haven't looked through the stats or what happens in history, we hope it's true because that improves our odds of making the Chase," Kenseth said. "But a few years ago we weren't near the top 12 after leaving here and made the Chase. Certainly anything can happen but it's still too early to tell."

Too early to tell depending on how drastic the results are Sunday.