Want Michigan success? See Auto Club Speedway

Much can happen during a race, and last week's Gillette Fusion ProGlide 500 at Pocono Raceway was a prime example. Without the late-race caution for Joey Logano's spin, the finishing order would have been quite different with dark horse Sam Hornish Jr. crossing under the checkers somewhere around the fifth-place mark instead of 11th and Kasey Kahne -- well, finishing. Instead, the green-white-checkered rule unleashed chaos that claimed half a dozen cars on the final lap when Kahne was blocked into the grass before careening into oncoming traffic.

That is the reason why it is helpful to look at a driver's record on similar tracks as well as the specific venue NASCAR visits each week. There are short tracks, restrictor-plate superspeedways, and flat tracks that somewhat mimic one another, but there are no two closer comparatives than Michigan International Speedway and Auto Club Speedway.

Michigan

This week's fantasy studs, duds and sleepers.

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Last year, Jeff Gordon was a perfect example of how close these two tracks are; he finished precisely second in all four races held on the two-mile tracks. Greg Biffle had his own four-race top-five streak going at the end of 2008 through the start of 2009, Matt Kenseth saw seven straight results of seventh or better from 2007 through 2009, and these tracks are filled with streaks of that nature.

Perhaps that should come as no surprise, since Auto Club was designed from Michigan's blueprint, but with all of the intangibles that can shake up the final standings of a race, the similarities are remarkable. In fact, fantasy owners can treat drivers' records on both tracks interchangeably.

The Favorites

Typically, when the series rolls onto one of the two-mile tracks, fantasy owners want to load their rosters with Roush-Fenway Racing -- and to a certain degree that remains true. At least one of their racers should be considered a favorite, even if Kenseth and Biffle should be thought of as dark horses. The organization is struggling for the moment, but if there is any track type that will allow them to reverse their momentum, this is it. Carl Edwards entered the Auto Club 500 at in California this spring with an 11-race top-seven streak that included three victories on the two-mile tracks. He stumbled in the Auto Club 500, but ever so slightly with a 13th and it's a fair bet he will be back in top form this weekend.

Roush's dominance on the two-milers is slipping and archenemy Hendrick Motorsports is gaining ground. Last year, Jimmie Johnson and Mark Martin each won one of the races on this track type, but it was Gordon who showed the most consistency with his perfect sweep of the runner-up position. This year has been marked with as many valleys as peaks, but the Rainbow Warrior has a handful of near misses with two seconds, two thirds and a fourth in situations where slightly different circumstances at the end of the race could have meant victory.

Edwards and Gordon may have had the best record on the two-mile tracks last year, but there is no substitute for recent momentum. Joe Gibbs Racing has a stranglehold on those stats with Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin dominating the front of the pack and winning six of the past nine races. Busch has been more consistent with eight consecutive top-10s in which he averaged a finish of 4.25, but Hamlin holds the edge in victories with four compared to Busch's two. If both of them will not fit on your roster, flip a coin, because they are likely to be one another's closest competition again this week. (Continued)