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BackDriving for Hendrick not a guarantee of more success (cont'd)

Schrader landed a ride with Hendrick beginning in 1988 and won four races in the next four seasons, but he went winless during a span of more than 150 starts. Still, his winning percentage at Hendrick is better than Casey Mears, Dale Earnhardt Jr. or Brian Vickers, and he finished in the top 10 in 47.57 percent of his starts, a figure higher than Kyle Busch's tenure with the team.

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Rudd won one race in each of his four seasons with Hendrick, finishing with a 3.42 winning percentage, slightly higher than his career average. Terry Labonte then took over and won 11 times in a six-year stretch, including capturing the 1996 championship. But his number steadily declined by 2000, and he recorded just nine top-five finishes during a span of 195 races.

From that point on until Jimmie Johnson appeared on the scene, Hendrick went through a succession of drivers that didn't live up to expectations. Ricky Craven, Wally Dallenbach, Jerry Nadeau and Joe Nemechek combined for a total of three victories in Hendrick equipment.

And since Johnson burst onto the scene, his teammates have had decidedly mixed results. Considered a rising star after winning the then-Busch Series championship in 2003, Brian Vickers won once in 113 starts. Talented open-wheel driver Casey Mears matched that in 72 tries. Kyle Busch was the next heir apparent and won four races in three full seasons, but he found much greater success with Joe Gibbs.

But if there's a parallel to Kahne, it could be Dale Earnhardt Jr. Kahne has won 11 times in 224 career starts, a winning percentage of 4.91. Including his time with Hendrick, Junior's career winning percentage is 4.86.

Earnhardt arrived at Hendrick in 2008, amid great fanfare and greater expectations. By any stretch of the imagination, Junior has been disappointed, and disappointing, in his time as a Hendrick driver. In 80 starts since moving over from DEI, he's won once and has finished in the top 10 on the average of three of every 10 races.

On the other hand, Mark Martin has won five times (a winning percentage of 11.63) in the car Kahne will inherit, which may bode well for the Washington native who will be 31 when he climbs into the cockpit as the newest member of the organization.

So which path will Kahne's future career take? Only time will tell. But even though Gordon and Jimmie Johnson have been two of the greatest success stories in NASCAR's modern era, it's impossible to predict whether Kahne will find his Hendrick experience to be a rocky road or smooth sailing.

Related:
Norris: Hendrick gives us all sense of measurement
Caraviello: Kahne provides Hendrick bridge to future

Beating the percentages

Success rate: Hendrick Motorsports drivers (minimum 10 races)
Driver Starts Wins Top-5s Top-10s Win Pct. Top-10 Pct.
Tim Richmond 37 9 16 21 24.32 56.76
Jimmie Johnson 299 50 122 186 16.72 62.21
Jeff Gordon 589 82 266 364 13.92 61.80
Mark Martin 44 5 17 25 11.36 56.82
Darrell Waltrip 110 9 35 60 8.18 54.55
Geoffrey Bodine 174 7 49 80 4.02 45.98
Kyle Busch 113 4 30 51 3.54 45.13
Ricky Rudd 117 4 35 64 3.42 54.70
Terry Labonte 387 12 64 125 3.10 32.30
Joe Nemechek 57 1 5 8 1.75 14.04
Ken Schrader 267 4 58 127 1.50 47.57
Casey Mears 72 1 6 16 1.39 22.22
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 80 1 13 24 1.25 30.00
Jerry Nadeau 81 1 7 16 1.23 19.75
Brian Vickers 113 1 10 23 0.88 20.35
Benny Parsons 29 0 6 9 0.00 31.03
Greg Sacks 16 0 2 4 0.00 25.00
Ricky Craven 38 0 4 8 0.00 21.05
Wally Dallenbach 50 0 1 9 0.00 18.00

The End

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