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Inside Line - David Caraviello
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One reason Hendrick is bringing in Kasey Kahne? Because the organization needs a younger driver to match the likes of Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch at Joe Gibbs Racing. Until then, don't count Jimmie Johnson out of contention.

Trying to make some sense of an unpredictable season

Exploring five factors helping to shape Race to the Chase

By David Caraviello, NASCAR.COM
June 5, 2010
11:01 AM EDT
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First it was Jimmie Johnson, winning three times in the season's first six weeks, and giving everyone nightmares about 10 long months with the No. 48 car out front. Then it was Kevin Harvick, snapping a long winless streak and showing a degree of perseverance by retaking the points lead. Then it was Denny Hamlin, winning three times in six races to back up his claim as heir apparent. Then it was Kyle Busch, building a long stretch of top-fives to prove he was back. Now it's Kurt Busch, fresh off a two-week sweep at Charlotte, and with more laps led than any other driver this year.

Notice a trend here? Exactly -- there isn't one.

Other teams may not have caught up to Hendrick, but they think they have, which may be good enough.

The battle for this year's Sprint Cup title has turned into a horse race to rival the Kentucky Derby, with a crowded field of contenders all jockeying for position at the halfway post to the Chase. For the first time in a long time, there is a serious degree of unpredictability in NASCAR, to the point where we honestly don't know who's going to win Sunday at Pocono Raceway, who's going to be in the playoff after Richmond, and who's going to be hoisting that sterling silver trophy at Homestead. After four record-setting years of Johnson dominance, NASCAR appears to be starting into a not-too-unwelcome unknown.

And no, it's not early anymore. It's late enough in the season that most of the pretenders have been sifted out, late enough that drivers like Juan Montoya and Kasey Kahne are in serious jeopardy of missing the postseason, late enough that the "Race to the Chase" -- that 10-event period that precedes the playoff -- is only three weeks away. No question, there's still plenty of time for Johnson, or anybody else, to rip off a series of race wins and assert himself as the favorite. But it's not exactly April anymore. This is the point in the season where the Chase begins to loom larger and larger in the distance, like an exit sign on an Interstate highway. And the mile markers are flying by.

Still, you'd probably have about as much luck pulling a name out of a paper bag as you would anointing a favorite at this point. Which begs the question -- this is what everyone wanted, right? We're in the midst of a season where Johnson can't keep his car out of the wall, where green-white-checkered finishes and double-file restarts are jumbling the running order, where some teams have seamlessly adapted from the switch from the wing to the spoiler, and others haven't. We're in the midst of a campaign where nobody would be surprised if Jamie McMurray or Martin Truex Jr. launched themselves into title contention, where any of about 20 drivers could win Sunday, and were the favorite for the championship seems to change on a week-to-week basis.

Here it is, a break from the Jimmie Fatigue, a season where so many drivers have some skin in the game, and yet attendance remains down and television ratings still struggle to right themselves. If there's ever a time to break that cycle, it would seem to be now, when the Sprint Cup circuit holds all the predictability of a lottery drawing. Of course, that's easier said than done when so many are still battling the effects of a recession that's hit the NASCAR fan base like a punch to the mouth. Still, if this keeps up, and we get to September or October with things as unsettled as they are now, you'd have to think NASCAR would reap some benefits. You'd have to think that track executives at Kansas and Martinsville and Homestead are hoping for a championship picture as indecipherable as the one we're staring at today. (Continued)

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