Avoiding the trend of midseason sitting duck

Sometimes, the lead can be the worst place to be. You'll hear that phrase uttered occasionally as a race enters its final stages, with the cars heading to pit road for likely the last time, and the driver up front knowing that he's in a no-win situation. If he stays out, everyone behind him will pit, and bury him with fresh tires. If he goes in, everyone behind him will stay out, and bury him in traffic. Either way, he becomes the one thing no driver wants to be.

The sitting duck.

It's an overused term, of course, but it also somewhat accurately sums up what becomes of a driver who's doomed through no fault of his own. Given the results of the past few years, you begin to wonder if that bit of fowl language might be applied not just to a single race, but an entire championship campaign. Because historically, nobody seems more set up for frustration and disappointment than the driver who has appeared in control of the Cup circuit at this very point in the season, with 10 races remaining until the Chase.

In other words, the seat that Denny Hamlin -- the series leader with five race victories, and the presumptive man to beat for the title -- occupies at the present time. Sunday's event at Infineon Raceway, where the No. 11 car sustained early damage in an accident and then had its hood fly open like a scene from Cannonball Run, certainly served as a reminder that no team is bulletproof, not even one that had won three of the past five races. But recent history should have shown that anyway, even if Hamlin had wound up in Victory Lane.

Because circumstances have not been kind to midseason favorites, not even those in a stronger position than Joe Gibbs Racing's top driver maintains now. Three years ago Jeff Gordon was the clear favorite, at this point in the season fortified with three race victories and massive points lead, and in the midst of a stretch that would see him finish outside the top 10 just once in 18 weeks. Two years ago it was Kyle Busch, scoring his fifth win of the season at Sonoma, and about to run off four in a row. Last year it was Tony Stewart, establishing himself as points leader for what would become a 12-week span.

None of those drivers won the championship. Only one of them, Kyle Busch, even opened the Chase as the points leader, given how the drivers in the title hunt are re-seeded based on victory totals. Now, is Hamlin the prohibitive favorite at this point? No question. Jimmie Johnson has four race wins, but since the opening months of the season hasn't shown Hamlin's week-in, week-out strength. Kevin Harvick is the points leader, but hasn't shown the ability to win multiple races. And yet, being in control at this point in the season guarantees a driver nothing more than the potential for mammoth disappointment down the road.

Busch knows that position all too well, seeing his eight-victory campaign of 2008 scuttled by a litany of mechanical problems.

"All you can do is keep doing what you're doing," Busch said. "The guys have to keep paying attention to detail, making sure that they get everything right and don't mess something up. We screwed up in 2008. We had a sway bar bolt come out or whatever it was at Loudon, and then we blew up at Dover, and then we had fuel pickup issues at Kansas. So three races in a row right out of the gate, we fell over. We stumbled really bad. That's just what they can't do. It wasn't to my doing, it was just unfortunate that stuff happened." (Continued)