Catching Bowyer, 12th Chase spot isn't impossible

With two races remaining before the field is set for the 2010 Chase for the Sprint Cup, 12th-place Clint Bowyer has a 100-point cushion over Jamie McMurray and a spread of 101 points between himself and Mark Martin.

So how likely is it that Bowyer could be caught and passed for the final place in the Chase by the time the checkered flag waves at Richmond? Since Bob Latford's point system was put into place beginning with the 1975 season, it's been accomplished 18 times, if you consider a similar two-week period in the schedule, which has fluctuated in length between 28 races and the current 36.

However, the largest deficit overcome in the past 35 years was when Davey Allison came from 77 points out in 1988 to move from 14th to 12th with 10 races remaining. That was the year Buddy Baker missed the final 12 races following brain surgery to remove blood clots.

Still, it is mathematically possible. And even though Steve Park didn't make it into the top 12 in 2000 with 10 races remaining, his two-race run -- coupled with miserable luck for Matt Kenseth and Mike Skinner -- would have been more than enough to wipe out Bowyer's 2010 advantage.

In the early days of R.J. Reynolds' involvement in the championship, the feat was accomplished in three consecutive seasons, beginning with Baker in 1975. He made up 74 points on 12th place that year, due in part to the fact that only six drivers completed the entire 30-race schedule. In 1976, J.D. McDuffie went from 13th to 10th, passing Frank Warren, Darrell Waltrip and Cecil Gordon in the standings, and one season later, Skip Manning leap-frogged David Pearson.

In 1979, James Hylton skipped past D.K. Ulrich and Terry Labonte to move from 13th to 11th with 10 races remaining. And three years later, Jimmy Means swapped places with Jody Ridley, although they were only separated by 18 points at the time. Tim Richmond made up two positions in the standings in 1983, getting past Dick Brooks and Dave Marcis after winning at Pocono, finishing third at Talladega and following that with a fifth-place finish at Michigan.

The feat wasn't accomplished again until 1988, the only time two drivers have bumped their way into the top 12 in the same season. Ricky Rudd and Allison chased down both Baker and Mark Martin that year. In 1989, Morgan Shepherd made up a 33-point deficit to vault into 11th place with 10 races to go, and the following year, Brett Bodine wiped out a 40-point deficit to leap-frog Sterling Marlin.

Bill Elliott, Terry Labonte and Rudd did it over three consecutive seasons beginning in 1993, with Labonte and Rudd making up two positions over a two-race span. Just before the advent of the Chase format, Jeff Burton also did it twice, coming back from 48 points down in 2001 and 46 points back two seasons later.

The original Chase was a 10-driver field, but had it been the current system, McMurray (2004) and Elliott Sadler (2005) would have bumped their way in. That's exactly what Brian Vickers did last year, wiping out a 39-point deficit and jumping over Matt Kenseth and Kyle Busch on his way to a berth in the Chase.

If McMurray or Martin have a glimmer of hope, they need to look at the 2000 season. That year, Park was 15th with 12 races remaining, 244 points out of 12th. But while Kenseth had consecutive finishes outside of the top 30 and Skinner blew an engine 15 laps into the Southern 500 to finish last, Park put together back-to-back top-10 finishes at Bristol and Darlington to shave 134 points off the deficit.

So it would be somewhat unprecedented for McMurray or Martin to make up that kind of ground on Bowyer, particularly when you consider at one time Bowyer had a streak of 83 consecutive races where he was running at the finish. And in 169 races over six seasons, Bowyer has finished 30th or worse in back-to-back races only three times, most recently at Darlington and Charlotte in 2009.

But as history shows, it's not impossible. And perhaps that's what will be on the minds of Bowyer, McMurray and Martin throughout the race at Atlanta Motor Speedway on Sunday evening.