Johnson's struggles for real, or just subterfuge? (cont'd)

• Hate to tell all those Jamie McMurray and Mark Martin and Ryan Newman and Kasey Kahne fans, but the numbers really do favor Clint Bowyer holding on to his 12th position in the Chase.

Bowyer is 100 points up on 13th-place McMurray and 136 ahead of 16th-place Kahne. Here's why Newman stands the best chance of the four of out-running Bowyer this weekend: He's done it in three of the five Atlanta races in the Chase era.

However, per average finishes in that same stretch, it's too little too late as no one stands to gain an appreciable amount of points on Bowyer. He has bagged finishes of 17th or better in seven of his past eight races.

Bowyer's average finish in the five races using the current car at Atlanta is 17th. That's better than Martin (23rd) and McMurray (26th) in the same stretch and only a little worse than Kahne (14.5) and Newman (15.5). The four guys trying to outrun Bowyer each have to make up at least 50 points to have any kind of reasonable chance next week at Richmond -- and the law of averages doesn't seem to be in their favor.

Then again, this is why they run the races.

• The consequences of Carl Edwards' Nationwide car's suspension failure at Montreal actually weren't much bigger than him losing a golden opportunity to score a spiffy repeat win in a truly unique event.

Granted, Edwards finishing 20th instead of leading the most laps AND winning contributed to the 365-point deficit he now faces. But the fact is, Edwards went to Canada facing a virtually insurmountable 313-point gap. Mathematics is one thing, but NASCAR racing is something else.

And Keselowski's providing more and more positive proof on a weekly basis that he's truly something special in Nationwide. Of all the road course specialists at the top of last Sunday's rundown, it was Keselowski who had the fastest last lap -- by a second over race winner Boris Said.

When you consider Keselowski should have only had to concentrate on his Nationwide duties this season, what he's achieved is even more impressive.

• How did Papis lose the Nationwide race in Montreal with what appeared to be -- if the last half-lap was any indication -- the best car in the field? Let's concentrate instead on just what an incredible job Said did of outdriving what seemed to be a superior piece of equipment to score a win that all three top finishers -- including third-place Jacques Villeneuve -- dearly coveted.

When Villeneuve threw his brake-challenged Braun Toyota in front of Papis midway through the final lap, killing both their momentum and creating a gap for Said, it looked like "game over." Papis' car was so good it still doesn't make much sense how he could be outrun after he handled the last corner better than Marcos Ambrose did last year when he was outrun by Edwards from Turn 14 to the flag.

Bravo to Said for cutting a perfect corner exit and to Roush Yates horsepower for making the difference once both men had full power down.

• The outcome aside, from Papis' perspective, the neatest thing about Montreal was proving just how good another "struggling" driver was proven to be when he got behind the wheel of some top-shelf Kevin Harvick Inc. equipment.

Papis is already locked into a full 2011 Truck Series season with Germain Racing -- and there's no questioning how good their stuff is in that series. But I think there's no question Papis will keep lobbying for the odd Nationwide outing for KHI. Why shouldn't he and why wouldn't they comply?

And if I were Elliott Sadler, I think I'd seriously consider opting into as many Nationwide and Truck rides as I could get with KHI, and make that my primary gig. If Sadler's serious about racing to win, well, his limited record in KHI stuff this season proves he's already there -- so why mess with success?

• I might be shortchanging Jason Bowles here, and if that's the case I apologize right up front -- but from the highlight snippet I saw of the last lap of the Canadian Tire race from Montreal, that was the best case of turnabout being fair play as I think I've ever seen.

The highlight package showed Bowles wail into the hairpin on the last lap and harpoon leader Andrew Ranger right out of his way with a well-placed fender-smash. What Bowles needed, though, was to have fired a missile into Ranger's Dodge on his way down the inside line. Ranger gathered himself up, outran Bowles on the final straightaway and put himself in position to plant Bowles in the wall on the outside of Turn 14 as Ranger went on to take the checkers in front of his appreciative home-country fans.

If you're a fan of stock-car payback, it doesn't get much more graphic than that.

• The most intriguing aspect of Robby Gordon Motorsports' deal with ExtenZe Racing and Kevin Conway is how many appearances Gordon will make in his own cars, where they'll be and in what number.

Right now, the No. 7 Toyota Conway will drive at Atlanta -- while Gordon competes in a TORC off-road event in Crandon, Wis. -- is 35th in the owners' standings. It's 125 points clear of the 36th-place No. 26 and 144 clear of the No. 38, which is fielded by the Front Row Motorsports team for which Conway previously drove.

Winning the rookie of the year title -- in which Conway's been the only full-season contender -- is still a big goal for the program. But it's a given that being a guaranteed starter is critical as well. In the past 10 races Conway has started, he's made the field based on his team's standing in the owners' points nine of 10 races -- and he would have failed to qualify for six of the 10 based on his speed alone.

Once he gets in the races, Conway has managed to avoid big trouble. But in those 10 races, he's scored only two finishes better than 31st. In those 10 races, head-to-head against his main competitors in the race to stay in the top 35, Conway's accrued a net deficit of 65 points to the No. 26 car. His net deficit to the No. 38 is just three points, with both cars failing to qualify twice.

At that rate it'll take either one a good part of the season to knock Gordon's No. 7 out of the top 35, by which point the rookie title will be all but clinched.

The opinions expressed are solely those of the writer.