Chase-only point system wouldn't alter status quo

How does the idea of "five-time champion Jimmie Johnson" sound? If NASCAR had gone with a simple points system that involved only Chase contenders, as has been suggested by legendary car owner Roger Penske and others, Johnson might already have five trophies in his case.

Using a simple system of 12 points for the winner, 11 for second, 10 for third for the Chases involving 12 drivers, and a 10-9-8 system for those with 10 -- and resetting all drivers to zero for the 10 Chase races -- not only does Johnson dominate the past four seasons, but would have finished in a three-way tie with Kurt Busch and Jeff Gordon in 2004, and would have prevailed in the tiebreaker.

One year later, with his win in the season-finale at Homestead, Greg Biffle would have edged Tony Stewart and Carl Edwards by one point to capture the 2005 championship. Using a Chase driver-only point system, Biffle would have trailed Stewart by six points with one race to go.

Of course, any revisions have to take into account the assumption that the actual results remain the same under decidedly different rules. There's no doubt Stewart may have raced differently that day, knowing he had to beat other Chase drivers to accumulate points instead of having a 102-point cushion on Biffle under the current system.

The inaugural Chase remains the closest three-way battle since the format was introduced for 2004. Under the current system, Busch went into Homestead with an 18-point lead on Johnson and 21 on Gordon. But using 10-9-8, Busch's advantage was much slimmer, as he would have had 62 points to Gordon's 60 and Johnson's 59. In fact, Dale Earnhardt Jr. also would have had 59 points heading into the final race of the Chase.

While Johnson would have earned 10 points for being the highest Chase finisher, closely followed by Gordon, Busch's ability to rally back from his broken wheel would have created a three-way tie at 69 points. And because Johnson won eight races in total that season to Gordon's five and Busch's three, the tiebreaker would have gone to him.

The first two Chases involved high drama, but that wouldn't have been the case the past four seasons under a 12-11-10 point system. With one race to go, Johnson would have had a six-point lead on Kevin Harvick in 2006, a five-point cushion on Gordon in 2007, a eight-point advantage on Carl Edwards in 2008 and virtually assured of the 2009 championship because of a 10-point lead on Mark Martin.

So would a point system involving only the Chase drivers make a major difference in who gets crowned champion? Not particularly, since both systems reward consistent finishes and penalize poor ones, and it appears that the cream continues to rise to the top, no matter how the points are doled out.

Easy as 1-2-3

Earlier this year, I floated the idea of drivers needing to average 123 points per race in order to guarantee a secured place in the Chase. And it appears that theory will be confirmed again in 2010.

Multiplying 123 by 25 gives you 3,075 points. After Atlanta, 11 drivers -- including Greg Biffle -- have exceeded that number, and all should be present and accounted for when the Chase begins at New Hampshire in two weeks. Clint Bowyer is at 3,066, just nine points below the 123 average. And barring any major catastrophe at Richmond, he should join the others.

Last season, Kyle Busch missed the Chase despite amassing 3,195 points. Even if 13th-place Ryan Newman scores the maximum number of points possible by winning at Richmond, his point total after 26 races would be 3,144.

The opinions expressed are solely those of the writer.

Related:
• Making the Chase a matter of simple formula to follow