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The late summer event at Richmond International Raceway is always fascinating, regardless of what happens on the race track. Watching the point gaps between those potential final Chase berths rise and fall, and waiting to see if any drivers swap positions in the standings, can be entertainment in and of itself. No wonder reporters in the track's media center keep their eyes on the scoring monitors and live standings as much as the race.
This year, though, the level of drama that traditionally surrounds NASCAR's regular season finale has been diluted by events leading up to it. Oh sure, there are still five drivers still technically vying for two available Chase spots, but in all reality Atlanta essentially decided the 12-man playoff field. Greg Biffle needs only to finish 42nd to wrap up the 11th spot, something that will happen the instant the first start-and-parker pulls into the garage. And to clinch that final position, Clint Bowyer needs to finish at least 28th -- on a track where he's never placed worse than 18th. When the No. 1 car lost a lap with a flat tire Sunday, the only people more disappointed than Jamie McMurray were those trying to sell tickets at RIR.
| Pos. | + / - | Driver | Behind |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11. | -- | G. Biffle | +161 |
| 12. | -- | C. Bowyer | +117 |
| 13. | +2 | R. Newman | -117 |
| 14. | -1 | J. McMurray | -128 |
| 15. | -1 | M. Martin | -147 |
| 16. | +1 | D. Reutimann | -186 |
It should still be a good show, though, as night races at Richmond usually are, with both ends of the Chase field -- those already locked in, and those with only a very slim possibility of getting in -- going all-out for the victory. There will be a lot of guys on the race track with nothing to lose, and they should drive like it. And at the end of the evening, two drivers will feel the relief of having secured those last two Chase spot, even if history tells us they have little chance of winning the championship itself.
It may occasionally make that wild cut-off race at Richmond a little wilder, and it definitely allows two more teams to claim a successful season, but the expansion of the Chase field from 10 to 12 drivers four years ago has yet to have an impact on the championship race. In theory, it sounds good -- let in two more teams, give hope to two more fan bases and make an exciting time of year even more exciting. In practice, it's been somewhat underwhelming. Widening the Chase field has only opened the championship hunt to two teams that aren't strong enough to really pursue it, programs that rarely rise above the bottom half of the standings. Instead, they often sneak in on the periphery of that 12-man bubble, and remain there the entire time.
This isn't a knock on Biffle and Bowyer, likely the final two men to get into this year's Chase; they're playing by the rules of the system they're given. But with one win between them, they're not exactly enjoying the same type of year as points leader Kevin Harvick, seventh-place Jimmie Johnson, or even 10th-place Denny Hamlin. No question, anything can happen once the playoff begins at New Hampshire -- several top contenders could get caught up in an accident, Bowyer could win the race (as he's done there before) and the driver who got in last could suddenly be first. But if the past three years are any indication, Biffle and Bowyer are in for a frustrating slog that will only remind them of the gulf that separates their programs from those of the title contenders at the top.
Since the Chase expanded to 12 drivers prior to the 2007 season, one of the last two men to get in has finished in the top half of the playoff field exactly once: 2008, when Bowyer wound up fifth overall. Granted, there have been circumstances, like the blown engine at Kansas that sunk Brian Vickers to the bottom of the playoff standings last season, or the crash at New Hampshire that doomed Matt Kenseth two years ago. And no question, the front-runners are just as vulnerable to accidents or breakage as anyone else -- just ask Kyle Busch, the top seed in the 2008 Chase who wound up 10th because of mechanical issues the first three weeks. But in most cases, those last two drivers to get in spend 10 consecutive weeks staring up at everyone else.
Last year it was Biffle and Vickers, who wound up seventh and 12th, respectively. Two years ago it was Kenseth and Bowyer, who finished 11th and fifth. In 2007, it was Martin Truex Jr. and Harvick, who came in 11th and 10th. No question making the Chase benefits a race team, which can check off a box on its list of preseason goals, and gets a chance at a bigger cut of the year-end points fund. But expanding the playoff field hasn't enhanced the championship hunt; it's watered it down. Adding more Chase spots has only let in programs that should be tinkering and experimenting with ways to become true championship contenders for the next season, rather than laboring under the illusion that they are now.
Which is why the idea of further Chase expansion so riles so many in the garage area, especially those at the top of the food chain who don't see the sense in letting in more programs that simply aren't in any shape to contend for a title. NASCAR chairman Brian France has mentioned Chase expansion as a possibility, and although things have quieted down on that front since he last spoke publicly on the topic in late July at Indianapolis, indications are that the potential for Chase changes remains very much alive. NASCAR is still studying options, one of which is leaving the current system as-is.

Contraction, going back to a 10-man, 10-race Chase that seemed so ideally symmetrical, seems to be off the radar. Such a move would be quite unorthodox, given that once sports leagues start expanding their postseason fields, the practice is to keep expanding -- baseball and football aren't getting rid of their wild cards anytime soon. But in those sports, the last teams in are often capable of winning it all. In NASCAR, they haven't been, at least not yet. Sometimes, they're terribly far off. And if a 12th-place team can't contend for the championship, why do we have any reason to believe that a 14th- or 15th-team can?
"I think we already added more guys, and I'm not sure why, to make it to where more guys had a chance," Hamlin said earlier this season. "Truly, there's no reason a guy who's 12th in points or 15th in points should have a right to race for a championship, where the first 26 races he ran horrible or mediocre. How is that fair that he gets a chance to win a championship just in the last 10?"
Bowyer, even as a potential 12th-place driver, believes he can be the exception. No question, he drives for a Richard Childress Racing organization that's shown great overall strength this season, and his No. 33 car is powered by Earnhardt-Childress engines that have proven themselves among the best in the sport. He did his best to crash the party in 2008, and finished third overall in 2007 after getting into the Chase as the ninth-place driver, but starting last after the field was re-seeded on victories. He likes his chances.
"Absolutely," he said. "For one reason, those Chase races have always been good race tracks for me. They are some of my favorite race tracks and my best race tracks finish-wise. Looking at the future here, I'm excited. I have to get in that Chase, because I know that we can perform when we get in that Chase. I've seen me do it before. I've seen our team do it before. Some of our best runs were in that last 10 races even last year when we weren't a part of that Chase. Those are good race tracks for us, and if we can be a part of that group, I really feel like we can be somewhere in the top five. Now, I don't know where that will be. I don't know if that is fifth or a championship, but I feel like we can contend and as a top-five team in those last 10 races."
On the surface, that seems a lot to ask of a driver with an average result of 15.0 this season, who hasn't strung together more than two consecutive single-digit finishes since the opening three weeks of the year. But results over the next 10 races will speak for themselves. Come next week, the opportunity will be there for Bowyer -- and by extension, every 12th-place driver in the standings -- to prove he truly belongs.
The opinions expressed are solely those of the writer.
Related:
Biffle, Bowyer close in on final two Chase spots
Chase-only point system wouldn't alter status quo
Five questions as the regular season wraps at RIR