Dawn of Chase a time to review, preview

Predictions, anticipation, expectations and disappointment are all part of the Chase for the Sprint Cup.

So on the eve of the cutoff race to set the 12-man field for the seventh annual Chase, Saturday night's Air Guard 400 at Richmond International Raceway, it's only appropriate to set the table with 12 predictions, of sorts, for the remainder of the season.

1. I know, I know -- I've been saying for weeks Kevin Harvick's the favorite to take this year's Cup championship, and I haven't backed off that. But before you forget about four-time running Jimmie Johnson, all you have to do is look at last weekend at Atlanta, where he finished third.

That's the kind of stuff Johnson, crew chief Chad Knaus and their Hendrick Motorsports crew have made famous the past four years -- while winning championships -- and every other year Johnson's been in Cup, when he prepared for what they're currently executing.

So sit back and enjoy it, it's gonna be a show.

2. Those of little faith will look at Harvick's 33rd-place finish -- which wasn't even a finish; he DNF'd for the first time this season -- and say it's a sign of an ultimate flaw or weakness. Bah, humbug says I. It was nothing more than a simple, yet critical for that night, mistake trying to come to one of the most difficult pit roads to get onto on the circuit.

Before that mistake, Harvick was showing every sign of notching up just what he's done for the better part of the season: a very workable top-10 finish at a track where he's not been the greatest, overall, since his stunning Cup Series victory in 2001.

Of course, how crew chief Gil Martin keeps the No. 29 team in line this weekend at Richmond goes a long way in determining how they'll start the Chase, which could be critical.

3. Carl Edwards really looked to be struggling earlier this season -- and his finishes reflected that. How ironic that his malaise might have reached its rock-bottom point at Atlanta in the spring, when he attacked Brad Keselowski for an earlier mistake that Edwards himself initiated.

But since then, Edwards has kept his head up and in the game, and the entire Roush Fenway organization has concentrated, in conjunction with the Roush Yates Engines facility, at doing all it can to put RFR in position to contend for the 2010 championship. And if both Edwards and teammate Greg Biffle's recent performances prove anything, it's succeeded. And complaining aside, Matt Kenseth has remained right there, on the verge of a minor adjustment paying big dividends in the results column.

Bottom line, what it means is, if Edwards and crew chief Bob Osborne find the key to Victory Lane, they might get there two or three times in this Chase -- and contend for the championship, or at least a top-three finish.

4. Tony Stewart -- in fact, his whole Stewart-Haas organization -- was a victim for most of this season of that "What happened to them?" syndrome after Stewart and Ryan Newman failed to equal their Chase-qualifying performance of their debut 2009 season. Unfortunately for Newman and crew chief Tony Gibson, they've never found the consistency to get into their second consecutive Chase, even though they won their first race together.

Stewart, on the other hand, has displayed the type of second-half performance he made famous while winning his previous two championships. While Stewart's nowhere near on pace to equal the stellar numbers he put up last season -- except in pole positions, where he's won twice as many this season as he did in 2009, when he won none -- he's definitely in position to be considered more than a strong dark-horse threat to win this championship.

All you have to do is look at Stewart's record in the past 15 races to know he is as well-positioned as anyone to seriously contend for this title.

5. It's been a long time since we belabored the "Kyle Busch victory watch," when Busch competed full time in 2009 in both Cup and Nationwide, while also running almost two-thirds of the Camping World Truck Series schedule for Billy Ballew Motorsports. Busch won 20 times while trying to establish a record for national series victories in a season, which he already holds at 21.

Can't say his path to Victory Lane has been much quieter this year, but in case you missed it, Busch has accrued 17 victories to date across the three series, and there's still almost a third of the schedule to go. All you have to do is look at last weekend, when Busch was fifth in the Cup race, second to popular winner Jamie McMurray in Nationwide and led the most laps at Kentucky before getting dialed out on fuel mileage in the Truck event.

My money's on Busch getting it done this season, and establishing sole possession of the Busch/Nationwide season victory mark, which he currently shares at 10. (Continued)